[Politics] Brexit - Deal we have or Rejoin CU/SM

[Iggle Piggle]

Which is what they are doing and the reason I personally probably won't vote for them (unless it appears they are most likely to GTTO in my constituency)

I think part of the problem is that it's going to be a car crash whoever gets in next term. It'll take longer than a term to turn the ship around and the government in 5 years is 1.01 to be unpopular whoever gets in. Starmer can't promise to spend his way out of it - the cash is blown and Labours problem is that they are in Brexit heartlands which makes Europe an impossible drum to bang even if they wanted us back (which I doubt is a serious proposition under 2030 something anyway).

Personally, I'd pick an easy target like pumping sewage into the water supplies and pick a fight with the water companies. It's mad that we've privatised something that falls out the sky and use that as springboard for examples of when things were better in the EU in the future. He won't even do that though, I can pretty much guarantee. He needs to develop a backbone on something.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Very much this. I think most of the EU, both politicians and the people, have had enough of the UK for the time being. I also think the UK now serves as a good example of how chaotic and expensive life can be like outside of the EU.

As proven throughout the Brexit negotiations, the EU are very much like TB and completely business focused, not getting caught up in petty ridiculous grandstanding and emotive outbursts. If it makes economic and political sense, (and obviously it does), they will be interested. Obviously we will get nowhere near the brilliant deal that politicians of all parties had worked extremely hard to negotiate over the past forty years as one of the most significant players in the EU, but I think Schengen and the Euro could still be negotiable.

But it would very much need to be one step at a time.

Remaining outside the CU/SM is simply not sustainable and I can see us eventually getting a Norway style arrangement (which is what most people were expecting during the referendum) within the next decade.

And this is the blatantly obvious next step for the time being to try and stabilise a crashing economy

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

One thing that I've started to see suggested by various commentors, is that the Tories suggest rejoining the EU, wrong-footing the Labour party as the side wanting to stick to a lousy deal.

Is this various commentators Matt Le Tissier? It's the sort of mumbo jumbo conspiracy he'd dream up.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Is this various commentators Matt Le Tissier? It's the sort of mumbo jumbo conspiracy he'd dream up.

More from the Torygraph.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

If I were in charge of Labour, I would campaign for the next election on a return to the EU on similar terms to those we left on, and that if significantly lesser terms were all that were offered, but were still preferable to being out, or just aligned in most areas through separate treaties, like the Swiss, that it would be put to the UK population in a referendum.
I believe that most EU states would want us back, that the EU would not want the possibility of another referendum in which they are rejected, and would try to offer us the best terms the existing members would permit. We are unusual, in that we would not be new members but returning members, and would be net contributors to EU budgets.

But it's not up to any political party whether we re-join or not. Even if it was open to us re-joining, there's no way the EU would agree to the terms we were on before. They were pretty favourable as they were and we STILL said "thanks, but no thanks. Bye!"

 

[Lever]

Fuel for further debate..... https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-rejoin-eu-gina-miller-b2362472.html

 

[Gwylan]

As proven throughout the Brexit negotiations, the EU are very much like TB and completely business focused, not getting caught up in petty ridiculous grandstanding and emotive outbursts. If it makes economic and political sense, (and obviously it does), they will be interested. Obviously we will get nowhere near the brilliant deal that politicians of all parties had worked extremely hard to negotiate over the past forty years as one of the most significant players in the EU, but I think Schengen and the Euro could still be negotiable.

Exactly. I think people who say that the EU will want to punish us for our arrogance or will want to teach us a lesson for thinking we can go it alone are totally wrong. The EU governments will decide whether it makes economic and political sense to have the UK on board ... and almost certainly will say 'yes' (whether we'd want to go in under those terms is another matter).

-

 

[um bongo molongo]

I was listening to a LBC phone-in on Monday and one of the learned panel deffo said that Michel Barnier had said the UK could rejoin on the same terms as we left ie we wouldn't have to join the Euro etc. Given that Johnson and the rest were promising a Norway-style deal, we'd be mugs not to at least sound them out. Yet Starmer won't suggest this because it's a political own goal and could reduce his votes among 'traditional' Labour voters. I don't think even the LibDems are even calling for it. I therefore look forward to the Greens having something in their Manifesto about it.

I don’t really understand why the Lib Dem’s aren’t proposing this. For Labour I understand the politics of it (albeit it’s pretty spineless). But the Lib Dem’s currently are irrelevant. This would be a chance for them to present a clear and bold position, distinct from the other two parties.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

-

Exactly. I think people who say that the EU will want to punish us for our arrogance or will want to teach us a lesson for thinking we can go it alone are totally wrong. The EU governments will decide whether it makes economic and political sense to have the UK on board ... and almost certainly will say 'yes' (whether we'd want to go in under those terms is another matter).

-

It's not about punishment or teaching anyone a lesson. But the two points you make....

1) I struggle to see a 'political sense' argument and you seem to have forgotten what a total pain you were as members, how clueless you were during exit negotiations and what a dvidied and undecided nation you still are. Would you invite yourself to a party? No, I thoiught not.

2) As for economic......the French fishermen are enjoying their windfall, German car makers and Frankfurt seem quite happy with things, Spanish farmers are loving all the extra meat they are now selling to thier fellow EU members and Holland is pissing its pants, in between counting all the extra jobs and money Brexit has brought them via the EMA moving to Amsterdam (with all the additional secondary jobs and consultancies which moved and/or sprung up to support this) and the continued rise of fullfillment centres to enable companies to ship to the EU with ease.). Dublin has done well on both of these fronts as well.

To plagarise a phrase.....I feel you need us more than we need you. And I will say again, it is this kind of arrogance which got you in this mess in the first place.

 

[Machiavelli]

It's not about punishment or teaching anyone a lesson. But the two points you make....

1) I struggle to see a 'political sense' argument and you seem to have forgotten what a total pain you were as members, how clueless you were during exit negotiations and what a dvidied and undecided nation you still are. Would you invite yourself to a party? No, I thoiught not.

2) As for economic......the French fishermen are enjoying their windfall, German car makers and Frankfurt seem quite happy with things, Spanish farmers are loving all the extra meat they are now selling to thier fellow EU members and Holland is pissing its pants, in between counting all the extra jobs and money Brexit has brought them via the EMA moving to Amsterdam (with all the additional secondary jobs and consultancies which moved and/or sprung up to support this) and the continued rise of fullfillment centres to enable companies to ship to the EU with ease.). Dublin has done well on both of these fronts as well.

To plagarise a phrase.....I feel you need us more than we need you. And I will say again, it is this kind of arrogance which got you in this mess in the first place.

I think the EU would have the UK back, but it will be on basic terms as with other new member states (ie, not the special arrangement the UK enjoyed) and the shenanigans won't be tolerated. The EU will be stronger for negotiating deals with the UK on board. Ireland would welcome it.
But, in order for that to happen, there will have to be a referendum, and none of this will happen for a while.

 

[zefarelly]

Europe is sniggering at us wondering how unbelievably stupid we are.

There are plenty in Europe reaping additional benefit as a concequence, why on earth would they welcome us back? We're an unstable country largely because of the instability and inability of any of our politicians to govern in any form of orderly or constructive manner.

Chelsea is better than run than this country.

 

[Baldseagull]

But it's not up to any political party whether we re-join or not. Even if it was open to us re-joining, there's no way the EU would agree to the terms we were on before. They were pretty favourable as they were and we STILL said "thanks, but no thanks. Bye!"

It is probably going to take a referendum to rejoin, but there will only be one if a political party in power decides it wants the UK to rejoin, if a party wins a UK election on taking us back into the EU, they would have a mandate to do so without a referendum. It is unlikely that the EU would grant total absolution and give us back everything we had, but the sooner we ask, the more likley we are to be able to get something close to it.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I think the EU would have the UK back, but it will be on basic terms as with other new member states (ie, not the special arrangement the UK enjoyed) and the shenanigans won't be tolerated. The EU will be stronger for negotiating deals with the UK on board. Ireland would welcome it.
But, in order for that to happen, there will have to be a referendum, and none of this will happen for a while.

I do not disagree. My point was more a challenge to @Gwylan 's assertion the EU would have you back 'in a blink of an eye'. I do not think this is the case.

 

[A1X]

On the current trajectory, I honestly think there will come a point where the UK will take pretty much any terms to come back in. Although I do believe that EFTA membership is more likely than EU membership.

 

[Baldseagull]

It's not about punishment or teaching anyone a lesson. But the two points you make....

1) I struggle to see a 'political sense' argument and you seem to have forgotten what a total pain you were as members, how clueless you were during exit negotiations and what a dvidied and undecided nation you still are. Would you invite yourself to a party? No, I thoiught not.

2) As for economic......the French fishermen are enjoying their windfall, German car makers and Frankfurt seem quite happy with things, Spanish farmers are loving all the extra meat they are now selling to thier fellow EU members and Holland is pissing its pants, in between counting all the extra jobs and money Brexit has brought them via the EMA moving to Amsterdam (with all the additional secondary jobs and consultancies which moved and/or sprung up to support this) and the continued rise of fullfillment centres to enable companies to ship to the EU with ease.). Dublin has done well on both of these fronts as well.

To plagarise a phrase.....I feel you need us more than we need you. And I will say again, it is this kind of arrogance which got you in this mess in the first place.

On the second point, EU agencies that have moved would most likely stay where they now are, we've lost those. Germany and France have enjoyed some fruits of our leaving, but are also stuck as the 2 net contributors most of the time, and would welcome the UK chipping in a bit to EU budgets. We are not yet an insignificant country, and having the UK on board would benefit the EU as a whole.

 

[chickens]

My tuppenceworth on getting back in is that it will require significant sacrifices. In the past Britain was always effectively the US’s voice in the EU, which made us a difficult and unpopular partner, always willing to try and put a spanner in the works of any meaningful legislation. Ireland has now taken that role of America’s buddy in Europe, but is better at politics, which has boosted Ireland’s importance to the U.S. at our expense.

We will still get warm words from the US as they cost nothing, but we don’t have a lot they want, and are increasingly diminished geopolitically. The Scrappy Doo to their Scooby.

As such, I suspect Brussels will want guarantees on standards of behaviour. They need to know that they’re not going to be used as a political football to distract from a political party’s own failings. They also need to know that they’re not going to be doing a permanent Hokey Cokey of Britain wanting to be in, then out, then in again. We might (whisper it) have to go back in good faith and try to further the European Union’s aims, rather than fight against them.

We would not regain the concessions we had in the past. Nigel Farage and this rabid loony Tory right really have made us all poorer.

We will have to go back in some form, any fool who looked at a map could see that.

 

[nicko31]

My tuppenceworth on getting back in is that it will require significant sacrifices. In the past Britain was always effectively the US’s voice in the EU, which made us a difficult and unpopular partner, always willing to try and put a spanner in the works of any meaningful legislation. Ireland has now taken that role of America’s buddy in Europe, but is better at politics, which has boosted Ireland’s importance to the U.S. at our expense.

We will still get warm words from the US as they cost nothing, but we don’t have a lot they want, and are increasingly diminished geopolitically. The Scrappy Doo to their Scooby.

As such, I suspect Brussels will want guarantees on standards of behaviour. They need to know that they’re not going to be used as a political football to distract from a political party’s own failings. They also need to know that they’re not going to be doing a permanent Hokey Cokey of Britain wanting to be in, then out, then in again. We might (whisper it) have to go back in good faith and try to further the European Union’s aims, rather than fight against them.

We would not regain the concessions we had in the past. Nigel Farage and this rabid loony Tory right really have made us all poorer.

We will have to go back in some form, any fool who looked at a map could see that.

My tuppenceworth on getting back in is that it will require significant sacrifices. In the past Britain was always effectively the US’s voice in the EU, which made us a difficult and unpopular partner, always willing to try and put a spanner in the works of any meaningful legislation. Ireland has now taken that role of America’s buddy in Europe, but is better at politics, which has boosted Ireland’s importance to the U.S. at our expense.

We will still get warm words from the US as they cost nothing, but we don’t have a lot they want, and are increasingly diminished geopolitically. The Scrappy Doo to their Scooby.

As such, I suspect Brussels will want guarantees on standards of behaviour. They need to know that they’re not going to be used as a political football to distract from a political party’s own failings. They also need to know that they’re not going to be doing a permanent Hokey Cokey of Britain wanting to be in, then out, then in again. We might (whisper it) have to go back in good faith and try to further the European Union’s aims, rather than fight against them.

We would not regain the concessions we had in the past. Nigel Farage and this rabid loony Tory right really have made us all poorer.

We will have to go back in some form, any fool who looked at a map could see that.

I don’t think Brussels would want us back in the club until the two main parties committed themselves to Europe.

I suspect EFFA is the first step towards Europe. The experience lying Brexiters told us we had. Rule takers with no say.

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

We can see that Labour are hopefully likely to win the next election, what I think they should do is put a policy of rejoining the CU/SM. But the thing is, I still think too many people feel like it is still beneficial to be out of it. Crazy really. So this would likely keep the Tories in who would no doubt counter it. They should get in then be radical and just go for it. EU will make us join the Euro though, simple as that.

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

True, but on the other hand the last thing we need is another election defined by voter's opinion of the EU - because it ends up being at the expense of everything else.

THIS.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I think part of the problem is that it's going to be a car crash whoever gets in next term. It'll take longer than a term to turn the ship around and the government in 5 years is 1.01 to be unpopular whoever gets in. Starmer can't promise to spend his way out of it - the cash is blown and Labours problem is that they are in Brexit heartlands which makes Europe an impossible drum to bang even if they wanted us back (which I doubt is a serious proposition under 2030 something anyway).

Personally, I'd pick an easy target like pumping sewage into the water supplies and pick a fight with the water companies. It's mad that we've privatised something that falls out the sky and use that as springboard for examples of when things were better in the EU in the future. He won't even do that though, I can pretty much guarantee. He needs to develop a backbone on something.

He needs to get elected. That means not frightening the hoards of f***ing IDIOTS who still think Brexit is brilliant and that sending migrants to f***ing RWANDA will solve something. Anything.

As we have seen in the last 13 years, the measure of a government is what they do, not what they claim they will do.

Ironically the only PM in the last 13 years who has delivered is Johnson. He promised to do Brexit without any plan or deal and he did it. I think he may have promised other stuff about how this would bring instant benefits, and that, but I don't remember the details so it can't have been important.

If that's the sort of madcap politics you like, vote for Farage. He has oodles of certainty and plans.