[Politics] Brexit - Deal we have or Rejoin CU/SM

[A1X]

One thing that I've started to see suggested by various commentors, is that the Tories suggest rejoining the EU, wrong-footing the Labour party as the side wanting to stick to a lousy deal.

I can't see it happening myself, at least not before the GE, but I could see it happening afterwards if Labour sticks with its Brexit policy ... particularly if the Tories get a drubbing.

What has definitely happened is the Torygraph has become much more critical of Brexit over the past few months. It's always been rabidly anti-EU and pro-Brexit - that's no longer the case. And the Torygraph is a good indicator of the way that the party is thinking.

It's very, very unlikely that the next Tory manifesto contains a commitment to rejoin the EU but I wouldn't entirely rule it out.

Definitely won't be in 2024. Indeed I can see a situation where basically both parties essentially ignore Brexit entirely in 2024 under the belief (not entirely wrongly) that the electorate just don't want to talk about it anymore right now. For the Tories to pivot back to being "in Europe" in some way would require a fairly hefty shift of power in the party. I can see them post-2024 going full on headbanger and embracing the neo-fascist wing of Braverman and the like as their new position, which will then promptly get another thumping in (probably) 2028 on the basis that the public never reward political parties which try that (2001, 1983 etc.), barring some major catastrophe hitting the incoming Government.

By 2032, however, that could be very different. We'll be nearly two decades on from the referendum, the demographic changes will have really taken over and suddenly it's likely there'll be a huge will to rejoin Europe in some way (unless something changes and either Europe collapses (unlikely) or Brexit suddenly clicks and everything's rosy again (slightly less unlikely, but only slightly). I wouldn't rule out the Labour party in 2028 pushing to rejoin EFTA, and if that has happened (or is in the process of happening) the Tories could find themselves with no choice but to back it.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Oh, I don't think that there'd be any problem there: the EU would have us back in a blink of an eye, we're too large a market to ignore.

It's this kind of arrogant belief which got you into a mess in the first place.

 

[A1X]

The Conservative Party in its current form is essentially UKIP. There would have to be a (much needed and welcome) clear out of the party before it could embrace any return to the EU, regardless of the economic benefits.

It’s telling that one of the main benefits of Brexit was supposed to be taking back control of our borders, which we actually keep delaying because we can’t afford to.

Embarrassing.

Not quite. It was also about sovereignty and being able to choose who leads our country, which is why we've now had two Prime Ministers in a row with no public mandate and, in one case, about a small a mandate as it would be possible for someone to become PM with.

 

[Jackthelad]

Oh, I don't think that there'd be any problem there: the EU would have us back in a blink of an eye, we're too large a market to ignore. I doubt that we'd get the same favourable terms as last time though: we may well have to adopt the Euro and sign up to Schengen.

But it's far too big a step at the moment, but I really wouldn't rule it out in future. The Toris may well be desperate if they get a drubbing in the GE and have to adopt a more radical approach.

Yeah that will go down well with the people joining ...Schengen.

Labour have a chance to bury The Tories for a very long time when they get into power, but if they go down the open borders path, then that is the best gift they could give The Tories.

 

[The Lemming Stomper]

I'm a big time Europhile...

EU should say adopt the Euro or f*** off

 

[Gwylan]

Yeah that will go down well with the people joining ...Schengen.

Labour have a chance to bury The Tories for a very long time when they get into power, but if they go down the open borders path, then that is the best gift they could give The Tories.

Here's someone who didn't read what I'd posted

As for people saying it's arrogant to say that we're too large a market to ignore, I'm just reflecting reality. We were a net contributor to EU funds and US companies saw us a useful stepping stone to Europe, thanks to a common language. Albania and Moldova are on the path to EU membership and they're scarcely economic powerhouses.

 

[Baldseagull]

Is that the 'expert' who previously said ...

"in 2016 the British economy was 90% the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70%"

... which turned out to be total bollox? Same old same old.

What Mark Carney got wrong

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made the striking claim that ‘in 2016 the British economy was 90% the size of Germany’s. Now it is less t…

julianhjessop.com

Carney v Portes. Does it Matter? - Briefings For Britain

It was disingenuous for a former Governor of the Bank of England to compare the UK economy exclusively with the German economy when they have very different dominate industries, international trade, and energy provision and then pretend the relative performance had something to do with Brexit.

www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk

But it wasn't total bollox, it was inaccurate to a degree that bollox may be fair, but the article you link to at the top has the figures as 88% dropping to 76%, albeit with currency values accounting for a chunk of it.
The article is also guilty of choosing to state things a little unfairly, it states that the pounds value had started to decrease before the referendum, which is true, but ignores that the upcoming referendum was a factor in that, for fear of a leave result, and suggests that we should look at it without taking any currency devaluation into account. I suggest that the value of the pound would have risen if a remain result had been returned, and would be higher than it is today if we had remained in the EU.
To be total bollox, you would have to argue that the lower value of the pound is in no way related to either the referendum happening, the leave result, or actually leaving the EU, which is obviously not true, even if some of it could be accounted for in other ways.

 

[Baldseagull]

It's only a pledge to join the euro. Denmark did over 15 years ago but still hasn't.
We wouldn't get as many rebates as we used to.

I believe that if we were to ask to rejoin now, it might be possible to get close to the terms we had, the longer we leave it, the less likely though.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

I believe that if we were to ask to rejoin now, it might be possible to get close to the terms we had, the longer we leave it, the less likely though.

No chance.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Remaining outside the CU/SM is simply not sustainable and I can see us eventually getting a Norway style arrangement (which is what most people were expecting during the referendum) within the next decade.

 

[Baldseagull]

No chance.

If I were in charge of Labour, I would campaign for the next election on a return to the EU on similar terms to those we left on, and that if significantly lesser terms were all that were offered, but were still preferable to being out, or just aligned in most areas through separate treaties, like the Swiss, that it would be put to the UK population in a referendum.
I believe that most EU states would want us back, that the EU would not want the possibility of another referendum in which they are rejected, and would try to offer us the best terms the existing members would permit. We are unusual, in that we would not be new members but returning members, and would be net contributors to EU budgets.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Here's someone who didn't read what I'd posted

As for people saying it's arrogant to say that we're too large a market to ignore, I'm just reflecting reality. We were a net contributor to EU funds and US companies saw us a useful stepping stone to Europe, thanks to a common language. Albania and Moldova are on the path to EU membership and they're scarcely economic powerhouses.

Maybe there’s a financial advantage to having low-cost-counties inside the EU and the UK struggling outside? If I was an EU car manufacturer this would be advantageous?

As for the US…..Ireland is taking over this role.
Biden’s recent trip wasn’t for fun.

I do feel it’s arrogant.

 

[Simster]

Here's someone who didn't read what I'd posted

As for people saying it's arrogant to say that we're too large a market to ignore, I'm just reflecting reality. We were a net contributor to EU funds and US companies saw us a useful stepping stone to Europe, thanks to a common language. Albania and Moldova are on the path to EU membership and they're scarcely economic powerhouses.

But Albania and Moldova haven't just decided to quit and considered rejoining inside a decade. The issue with the UK rejoining is that the EU would have no confidence we'd want out inside another decade. That all costs time and money.

Far more likely IMO is that we'd not be allowed in and would have an arrangement similar to (but not part of) EFTA.

 

[Simster]

Maybe there’s a financial advantage to having low-cost-counties inside the EU and the UK struggling outside? If I was an EU car manufacturer this would be advantageous?

As for the US…..Ireland is taking over this role. Biden’s recent trip wasn’t for fun.

Yep. I do wonder whether this Torygraph rhetoric is because they saw this direction of travel.

 

[East Staffs Gull]

If I were in charge of Labour, I would campaign for the next election on a return to the EU on similar terms to those we left on, and that if significantly lesser terms were all that were offered, but were still preferable to being out, or just aligned in most areas through separate treaties, like the Swiss, that it would be put to the UK population in a referendum.
I believe that most EU states would want us back, that the EU would not want the possibility of another referendum in which they are rejected, and would try to offer us the best terms the existing members would permit. We are unusual, in that we would not be new members but returning members, and would be net contributors to EU budgets.

If I were in charge of Labour, I’d make as few promises and commitments as I possibly could ahead of 2024.

 

[Simster]

If I were in charge of Labour, I’d make as few promises and commitments as I possibly could ahead of 2024.

Which is what they are doing and the reason I personally probably won't vote for them (unless it appears they are most likely to GTTO in my constituency)

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Which is what they are doing and the reason I personally probably won't vote for them (unless it appears they are most likely to GTTO in my constituency)

The bit in brackets is everything, in my opinion. Tactical voting to get them out, to absolutely destroy them, is essential.

After that we can put the pressure on for the changes that are so obviously needed.

 

[Baldseagull]

If I were in charge of Labour, I’d make as few promises and commitments as I possibly could ahead of 2024.

You are aligned with Kier Starmer. Possibly the right stance at the moment, but when they produce a manifesto, just not being Tories or SNP is not going to be enough, some idea of what they hope relations with the EU to look like will be asked for by most journalists, they will have to state a position, and leaving a return to closest possible relations with the EU as a Liberal, or Green option only, could cost them.

 

[WATFORD zero]

One thing that I've started to see suggested by various commentors, is that the Tories suggest rejoining the EU, wrong-footing the Labour party as the side wanting to stick to a lousy deal.

I can't see it happening myself, at least not before the GE, but I could see it happening afterwards if Labour sticks with its Brexit policy ... particularly if the Tories get a drubbing.

What has definitely happened is the Torygraph has become much more critical of Brexit over the past few months. It's always been rabidly anti-EU and pro-Brexit - that's no longer the case. And the Torygraph is a good indicator of the way that the party is thinking.

It's very, very unlikely that the next Tory manifesto contains a commitment to rejoin the EU but I wouldn't entirely rule it out.

This is interesting as I was told this by someone much closer to the Westminster bubble than me a few months ago (CU/SM rather than EU). At the time I questioned their sanity, but they have been right in the past

*edit* Found it, from a year ago

A few weeks ago, we went out to dinner with friends, one of whom is a lot closer to what goes on in Westminster than I am and he said that he thought this Government would resurrect the question of the Single Market as it was the only way out of the cul de sac they had steamed us into. I told him that it was complete bollox and nobody from the Conservative and Unionist Party would dream of it. If anyone, it would be the Lib Dems, as part of a coalition with Labour after the next election that would insist on it being raised.

I'm now wondering, after the last week, what the various 'potential' PMs will do to try and distance themselves from Johnson's complete clusterf*** of the last 2.5 years and try and put the brakes on the impending economic crisis.

And I'm certainly not taking any bets with him

 

[Machiavelli]

Oh, I don't think that there'd be any problem there: the EU would have us back in a blink of an eye, we're too large a market to ignore. I doubt that we'd get the same favourable terms as last time though: we may well have to adopt the Euro and sign up to Schengen.

But it's far too big a step at the moment, but I really wouldn't rule it out in future. The Toris may well be desperate if they get a drubbing in the GE and have to adopt a more radical approach.

I agree with all that, but the suggestion that the Tories are going to advocate rejoining the EU (ie, not even proposing intermediate options such as rejoining SM and/or CU) is for the birds in this parliament or next. If they get a drubbing at the forthcoming GE which seems likely, they'll have to do some serious reflection, but they won't be advocating a return to the EU for a while yet.