[Albion] Article - Football Changed and Chris Hughton Didn’t Keep Up

[Triggaaar]

Competing in the PL is all about how much money you spend - if you look at the team struggling against relegation they inevitably have a transfer budget and a wage budget in the lower end of the clubs.

So when Palace were the lowest points scoring teams of all 92 clubs in 2016, were they one of the lowest payers in the league

 

[Guinness Boy]

Spotrac


Do you think that Hughton wasn't thinking PL when he took the Brighton job.

As for Bournemouth's first season in the PL - Howe signed 6 players for more than £40million (including 4 strikers) - and got Boruc and Distan on free transfers.


Hughton already had a job - one that he appears to have been committed to and one that he felt he had the total support of the owner.


Swedish players in the top division earn an average of about £1,500 a week (there are many players in the League of Ireland on higher money than that) - the league is on a par with Algeria, Israel and Australia in terms of player wages. The average income for a club in Sweden is about £6million.

Östersund did have money - the owner is facing serious fraud charges over several companies that 'sponsored' the club and for diverting municipal housing funds to pad the club's balance sheet.

What Potter did at Östersund was commendable - however, there is a massive difference between doing it in Sweden and doing it in England. What did he do at Swansea - mid-table for a team that had been relegated. Yes they were in financial trouble - yes they sold players worth £50million - they also brought in players paying £10million in transfers - and they had parachute payments of over £40million. The big problem for Swansea was a wage bill of £100million a year. Bony was on £120K a week. Fer and Dyer were on £30k a week. The big question is not what Potter did last season - but what would have happened next season if Potter had stayed. By far the most impressive performance by a manager in the Championship over the past few years was Nigel Clough who kept Burton in the Championship for 3 years on an absolute shoestring budget. Burton had an operating loss of £300K in 2017-2018 - Wolves a loss of £65million.


Southgate got Middlesbrough relegated -

As for England four years ago -
John Stones was 20
Harry Maguire was 22 (and playing on loan at Wigan)
Eric Dyer was 21
Deli Alli was 19 and Spurs had just signed him from MK Dons
Ross Barkley was 21
Jessie Lindgard was 22 (and on loan at Derby)
Raheem Sterling was 20
Harry Kane was 21
Marcus Rashford was 17 and hadn't made his debut for Man Utd.

I would argue that Southgate was very lucky - he became manager of England just as a group of young English players were breaking onto the scene - a little like the class of '92 for Man. Utd.


Competing in the PL is all about how much money you spend - if you look at the team struggling against relegation they inevitably have a transfer budget and a wage budget in the lower end of the clubs. It all comes down to money - the more money you spend the better players you get - and you have to keep spending it just to stand still. Five years ago PL clubs spent £410million during the transfer window - last season they spent over £1billion - that is nearly hyperinflation territory. In the past ten years Man City have had a net expenditure on transfers of over £1billion - an average of £100million a year, every year. Five years ago Man Utd were spending more than £230million a year on their wage bill - last year Brighton were below £40million. Chelsea currently have a debt of over £1.2billion. Some of these clubs spend more money than entire countries - that is the scale of situation and why football as it is currently constituted will eventually collapse.

I get it. You’re a financial stats nerd from Ireland.

You’ve also spectacularly missed the whole point, which is that Bloom is seeking to break the total spending = final position hegemony. He didn’t think Hughton could do that next season. He does think Potter can. We’ll all have to see, frankly, but that’s why I think Hughton lost his job and why I wrote what I did. I literally don’t care what Shane Long earns or any of this other bluster.

Meanwhile I’ve just caught up with Phil McNulty’s article. He got two out of three relegated teams spectacularly wrong.

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[Machiavelli]

Duffy's place is not under any threat at all, he's not a good passer of the ball but he can pick out Stephens just fine. If we continue to play 4-3-3 next season, I'm sure our core will remain the same with Ryan, Duffy, Dunk and Stephens - no investment needed there at all. Our starting full backs, Montoya and Bernardo, are both more than capable of not having their hand held defensively all game. No investment needed there either. Izquierdo on the left and Jahanbakhsh on the right are a real and consistent threat, with March and Knockaert waiting in the wings as other options. No immediate investment needed there either.

Central midfield will need some work though. Stephens, Propper, Gross, Bissouma and Kayal are all good players but I think we need some more attacking quality in there. Stephens can pick out a pass (Knockaert's goal at Palace being an example) and Propper will thrive in a more attacking team. Bissouma's class but I think Kayal is the one I'd be looking to upgrade now, get someone better able to unlock a defence. It's not cheap, but I'm sure we can find someone in our budget. Alternatively, if we switch back to playing a number 10 then Gross will thrive again. Propper would be good in that role too.

Up front we've got Murray, Locadia and Andone with Aaron Connolly looking to get in as well. Good options, very different players to suit different tactics.

On the face of it, I don't actually think we need to spend too much money. We need a new right back, and Suttner's return from his loan means we're well stocked at left back. Assuming Balogun and Burn are happy to continue as defensive backup, we're well set. I'd bin off Steele and relegate Button to third choice goalkeeper, in favour of Walton being the number 2.

I'm pretty certain we will play 433 (or 451) next season but, then again, I'm pretty certain we'll play a whole host of other formations. This is what Potter has done and, given that's what he's done, in all likelihood, he'll continue doing it with us.
I'm picking on you individually, but I'm really speaking to the whole of NSC: can we stop making assumptions about what formation Potter will play, and work on the basis that he'll play multiple ones, both between games (I understand that he didn't start the same formation in consecutive games last season) but also within them too.

 

[Ninja Elephant]

I'm pretty certain we will play 433 (or 451) next season but, then again, I'm pretty certain we'll play a whole host of other formations. This is what Potter has done and, given that's what he's done, in all likelihood, he'll continue doing it with us.
I'm picking on you individually, but I'm really speaking to the whole of NSC: can we stop making assumptions about what formation Potter will play, and work on the basis that he'll play multiple ones, both between games (I understand that he didn't start the same formation in consecutive games last season) but also within them too.

I'm not making any assumptions - I think good managers play a formation to get the most out of their players, rather than trying to fit players into a formation. It's largely what cost our previous manager his job! Tactics need to be flexible, the team needs to be able to adapt to survive. If it's not working, we need to be able to change it - rather than accept the sad inevitability of losing the game.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

You’ve also spectacularly missed the whole point, which is that Bloom is seeking to break the total spending = final position hegemony.

Bloom is a professional gambler and analyses the odds - and he is making a spectacular misjudgment if he thinks he can do what you are arguing.

I suspect Bloom thinks that the Brighton squad is better than it actually is - and that all he needs is a different manager - to get more out of the same resources - time will tell but without a massive cash injection Brighton will struggle next season (and would have had Houghton remained anyway in those circumstances).

Potter's team in Sweden contained English players who had previously plied their trade in non-league football in the UK - his team at Swansea was a mixture of journeymen and academy players - he has never been in the situation he is in now - good luck to him and Brighton, but there is a tough road ahead.

I literally don’t care what Shane Long earns or any of this other bluster.

I get it - you don't think that money trumps all in the PL - the evidence suggest otherwise.

Potter has an over-hyped reputation - the claim that he worked miracles without any money with Östersund is false (the clubs had money) - if you really want to see spectacular success with a Scandanavian team then look at the work of Nils Arne Eggen at Rosenborg, taking them from the bottom of the Norwegian second division to the group phase of CL 11 times in 13 seasons. A lot of the 'new' approach of Potter are actually copying the philosophy of Eggen from more than 25 years ago and it requires a very special skill set of coaches and players to pull it off.

 

[Nixonator]

Bloom is a professional gambler and analyses the odds - and he is making a spectacular misjudgment if he thinks he can do what you are arguing.

I suspect Bloom thinks that the Brighton squad is better than it actually is - and that all he needs is a different manager - to get more out of the same resources - time will tell but without a massive cash injection Brighton will struggle next season (and would have had Houghton remained anyway in those circumstances).

Potter's team in Sweden contained English players who had previously plied their trade in non-league football in the UK - his team at Swansea was a mixture of journeymen and academy players - he has never been in the situation he is in now - good luck to him and Brighton, but there is a tough road ahead.


I get it - you don't think that money trumps all in the PL - the evidence suggest otherwise.

Potter has an over-hyped reputation - the claim that he worked miracles without any money with Östersund is false (the clubs had money) - if you really want to see spectacular success with a Scandanavian team then look at the work of Nils Arne Eggen at Rosenborg, taking them from the bottom of the Norwegian second division to the group phase of CL 11 times in 13 seasons. A lot of the 'new' approach of Potter are actually copying the philosophy of Eggen from more than 25 years ago and it requires a very special skill set of coaches and players to pull it off.

Thank god we have you, an Irish Hughton and probably liverpool fan or some other conglomerate shithouse, to lecture us on the personality of our Chairman and owner (whom many of us have met personally and chatted to on trains to places like Barnsley) and to give clairvoyant appraisals of our incumbent manager before he has even shaken hands with any of our players, much less managed a competitive game with us.

Judging by your previous comments re. Tony Bloom, it's really difficult to take anything you say seriously.

 

[AZ Gull]

Bloom is a professional gambler and analyses the odds - and he is making a spectacular misjudgment if he thinks he can do what you are arguing.

I suspect Bloom thinks that the Brighton squad is better than it actually is - and that all he needs is a different manager - to get more out of the same resources - time will tell but without a massive cash injection Brighton will struggle next season (and would have had Houghton remained anyway in those circumstances).

Potter's team in Sweden contained English players who had previously plied their trade in non-league football in the UK - his team at Swansea was a mixture of journeymen and academy players - he has never been in the situation he is in now - good luck to him and Brighton, but there is a tough road ahead.


I get it - you don't think that money trumps all in the PL - the evidence suggest otherwise.

Potter has an over-hyped reputation - the claim that he worked miracles without any money with Östersund is false (the clubs had money) - if you really want to see spectacular success with a Scandanavian team then look at the work of Nils Arne Eggen at Rosenborg, taking them from the bottom of the Norwegian second division to the group phase of CL 11 times in 13 seasons. A lot of the 'new' approach of Potter are actually copying the philosophy of Eggen from more than 25 years ago and it requires a very special skill set of coaches and players to pull it off.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Thank god we have you, an Irish Hughton and probably liverpool fan or some other conglomerate shithouse, to lecture us on the personality of our Chairman and owner (whom many of us have met personally and chatted to on trains to places like Barnsley) and to give clairvoyant appraisals of our incumbent manager before he has even shaken hands with any of our players, much less managed a competitive game with us.

Judging by your previous comments re. Tony Bloom, it's really difficult to take anything you say seriously.

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[Jolly Red Giant]

and probably liverpool fan

Wrong again

or some other conglomerate shithouse,

And again

He’s a Bmuff

and again

or Stains fan,

And again

to give clairvoyant appraisals of our incumbent manager before he has even shaken hands with any of our players, much less managed a competitive game with us.

Given the amount of commentary on here about what Potter is going to do and what formation he is going to use and how good he is going to be - I suggest that your assertion is misplaced.

I suggested that Potter is over-hyped given what he did in Sweden - and the evidence suggests that this is the case. This doesn't mean that he won't turn out to be a good manager - but in terms of achievement he has an awful long way to get to even get close to where Chris Hughton is at.

 

[Weststander]

Thank god we have you, an Irish Hughton and probably liverpool fan or some other conglomerate shithouse, to lecture us on the personality of our Chairman and owner (whom many of us have met personally and chatted to on trains to places like Barnsley) and to give clairvoyant appraisals of our incumbent manager before he has even shaken hands with any of our players, much less managed a competitive game with us.

Judging by your previous comments re. Tony Bloom, it's really difficult to take anything you say seriously.

He’s a Bmuff or Stains fan, who’s slagged off TB before in earlier shite-stirring posts.

(Jealous)

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Sunderland

 

[Weststander]

Wrong again


And again


and again


And again



Given the amount of commentary on here about what Potter is going to do and what formation he is going to use and how good he is going to be - I suggest that your assertion is misplaced.

I suggested that Potter is over-hyped given what he did in Sweden - and the evidence suggests that this is the case. This doesn't mean that he won't turn out to be a good manager - but in terms of achievement he has an awful long way to get to even get close to where Chris Hughton is at.

Faux praise for Hughton, not heart felt. Your posts over the last week or two have carried an anti and/or envious angle about Tony Bloom per se.

Quite voyeuristic.

 

[Icy Gull]

Wrong again


And again


and again


And again



Given the amount of commentary on here about what Potter is going to do and what formation he is going to use and how good he is going to be - I suggest that your assertion is misplaced.

I suggested that Potter is over-hyped given what he did in Sweden - and the evidence suggests that this is the case. This doesn't mean that he won't turn out to be a good manager - but in terms of achievement he has an awful long way to get to even get close to where Chris Hughton is at.

Not sure many of us give a feck what you think with your pontificating. We are Brighton fans, you aren’t and as far as I’m aware you don’t watch all our games, so I’m not sure why you are banging on about this so much.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

We are Brighton fans, you aren’t

And you are sure of that - are you?

and as far as I’m aware you don’t watch all our games,

As far as you are aware !

so I’m not sure why you are banging on about this so much.

Its an internet forum - is there some restriction on posting comments that I am not aware of?

And for your information - apart from a forum for Irish international stuff - this is the only football/soccer forum I post on.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

Faux praise for Hughton, not heart felt. Your posts over the last week or two have carried an anti and/or envious angle about Tony Bloom per se.

I get it - some Brighton fans like the guy - I have a general dislike for anyone with his wealth.

We live in a society where six individuals own more wealth than 50% of the people on the planet - and 2 out of every 5 children in the UK live in poverty (a record high) - and inequality is growing at a consistent rate while about 60 people in the UK have wealth of more than £1billion (and some people put Bloom in that number). In the meantime over the next couple of months 20 PL clubs will spend more than £1billion buying players and some of those players will earn anything up to £500K a week.

You may call it envy - I call it obscene and an outrage.

 

[El Presidente]

You’ve also spectacularly missed the whole point, which is that Bloom is seeking to break the total spending = final position hegemony.

That is the whole moneyball philosophy. I'm just not convinced the data analytics, a bit like electric cars, is at a point where it works as football is more fluid that baseball and there and far more variables.

He didn’t think Hughton could do that next season.

If that's the case I agree Hughton had to go, couldn't see him getting a quart out of a pint pot.

 

[El Presidente]

Bloom is seeking to break the total spending = final position hegemony.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So in effect Tony Bloom wants less hegemony and more alchemy?
















I’ll get my coat.

 

[Guinness Boy]

That is the whole moneyball philosophy. I'm just not convinced the data analytics, a bit like electric cars, is at a point where it works as football is more fluid that baseball and there and far more variables.

Now, I'm going to have to be careful because you and I have discussed this a bit further offline but data analytics on its own can't be relied on for anything. I'm vaguely in the industry (for financial services rather than footballers) and I understand its limitations. And, lets say we'd been looking at players who worked out for their clubs but were not good in the data, so didn't come, as well as signing players based on it who have been shite (Ali J, Locadia). that's another nail in its coffin. But the thing about it is the parameters do keep on needing to be tweaked and the algorithms updated. I, for example, based on what happened to us, would be putting a negative score on to players who had suceeded in Dutch domestic football but not on a wider stage. We've tried it several times, it hasn't worked, the parameters simply have to be tightened.

But that wasn't my point and I don't talk about data analytics in the piece. I appreciate that if you just read the headline and not the article it comes over as disrespectful but that wasn't my intention. I loved Chris apart from the final months and even waivered again after Arsenal (I put that on record too). To distill it - and people will no doubt pick it apart because I'm summarising 1000 words even more - the thrust is:

- Foootball is not the same game as it was in 2014 and the parameters have shifted significantly
- Our aim is not the same as it was when we went up because the brass have realised the pragmatic approach was boring people
- A trite but true point. CH was dismissed for EXACTLY the same reason as Norwich binned him off. In that sense he did NOT progress as a manager. I'll concede I'm wrong when he leads a team to higher than 15th in the PL playing entertaining football. He is a GREAT Championship manager. No one doubts that.
- Football now is evolving quicker than it ever has and yet for two and a half seasons of his BHA career, those that bookended it, his only answer was to hope we didn't concede. While that was going on most of the coaches I've mentioned on this thread were, instead, trying to work out how to score more.

If that's the case I agree Hughton had to go, couldn't see him getting a quart out of a pint pot.

Well. I'm glad you finally agree with me

Quart and pint pot is disrespectful to Tony though. He's looking for ways to get the most out of what he spends. When he's chucked in what he has then that's his perogative and I think you've said similar yourself.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Sunderland

Not contradicted I notice.

Must be really easy running a PL club when you're spending your days in another country listing to Johnny Giles' load of old balls and believing everything that's on spotrac.

 

[Jolly Red Giant]

That is the whole moneyball philosophy. I'm just not convinced the data analytics, a bit like electric cars, is at a point where it works as football is more fluid that baseball and there and far more variables.

Analytics is perfect for baseball - and all baseball teams use it - and it is continuing to evolve. The nature of the sport mean that there are very specific measurables. The problem is than once all teams begin to use analytics then the success kicks back into the money spent. Every team to have won the World Series over the past 12 years has had a payroll of over $100million. Baseball does have a certain leveler in the 'luxury tax' paid by teams with an inflated payroll (and the draft) - but at then end of the day money counts.

Analytics is now being used on American football - but not in the same way. American football has the draft, free agency, a set roster size, a salary cap and a minimum wage. The primary use of analytics in that sport is in evaluating potential draft picks - because of the high bust rate of draft picks, particularly in the first three rounds.

Analytics is of less use in football because of the nature of the game - but also because there is no draft but transfer fees - there is no salary cap - there is no minimum wage - there is no set roster size - and there is a small number of clubs (in Europe) who are dominant and who are attempting to garner a bigger and bigger slice of the pie (at the expense of everyone else). But once analytics has started to be used then every club has to use it or you will be at a disadvantage.