[Albion] Article - Football Changed and Chris Hughton Didn’t Keep Up

[timbha]

Interesting discussion this; precisely what good writing / journalism is meant to do.

I wanted to touch on the moneyball side of things. Is the general assumption from most that the data isn't yet useful enough to be considered reliable in football? Apologies if I've phrased that poorly.

I've been thinking about it, in terms of centre backs specifically, and stats like tackles attempted per 90, successful tackles per 90 are ones I'd consider useful but not nearly as useful as successful interceptions per 90 because that stat indicates to me that the defence is in a position, more often than not, that means they don't need to make a tackle attempt which has a 50% chance of succeeding or failing.

That’s a good point. A bit like keepers being judged but the number of saves they make when the best keepers organise their defences to prevent shots - Ray Clemence was very good at this. Similarly CBs should not have to make too many last ditch tackles and blocks.

 

[Guinness Boy]

That’s a good point. A bit like keepers being judged but the number of saves they make when the best keepers organise their defences to prevent shots - Ray Clemence was very good at this. Similarly CBs should not have to make too many last ditch tackles and blocks.

Exactly why (maybe on this thread or maybe the Hughton's Statement one) I posited that player of the season and all round rock, Shane Duffy *might* be traded for more of a ball playing centre back. It's entirely speculation and I'm not saying I want Duffy to leave as he has been totally brilliant for us. However, if you are trying to get / keep up the other end of the field then do you need a blocking / heading CB with limitations on pace or do you need a quicker ball playing centre half who might not be quite so mental in the block and tackle?

I also think this explains why Dunk has been dropped by Southgate. His blocking is great, his general defending is great and he's got a nice quarterback-like mid to long ball, especially diagonally. But that's not expressly what Southgate is looking for in a centre back when he expects to dominate most games, especially in qualifiers, and play out from the back. The interesting thing is, having played under Poyet and Oscar we know that Dunk CAN play out from the back. Might Potter's introduction see us with an England CB as well as a change beside him?

 

[BBassic]

Exactly why (maybe on this thread or maybe the Hughton's Statement one) I posited that player of the season and all round rock, Shane Duffy *might* be traded for more of a ball playing centre back. It's entirely speculation and I'm not saying I want Duffy to leave as he has been totally brilliant for us. However, if you are trying to get / keep up the other end of the field then do you need a blocking / heading CB with limitations on pace or do you need a quicker ball playing centre half who might not be quite so mental in the block and tackle?

I also think this explains why Dunk has been dropped by Southgate. His blocking is great, his general defending is great and he's got a nice quarterback-like mid to long ball, especially diagonally. But that's not expressly what Southgate is looking for in a centre back when he expects to dominate most games, especially in qualifiers, and play out from the back. The interesting thing is, having played under Poyet and Oscar we know that Dunk CAN play out from the back. Might Potter's introduction see us with an England CB as well as a change beside him?

Absolutely. I seem to recall him doing it last season as well; more or less dribbled his way into the final third. Though that may be my memory embellishing things.

 

[chaileyjem]

I also think this explains why Dunk has been dropped by Southgate.

Isn't it just other players are available. ? Southgate has him, understandably about 6- 8th in the queue - injuries gave him a chance a few games back - and now he's still probably about 6-8th back.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Isn't it just other players are available. ? Southgate has him, understandably about 6- 8th in the queue - injuries gave him a chance a few games back - and now he's still probably about 6-8th back.

Yes and no. I mean, there's no disputing what you've said but are the other 6 to 8 better players, with better clubs or more suited to Southgate's way of playing? He's never going to start for the first team but he ended up behind Tarkowski and I genuinely think Dunk is better. Gomez is in the current squad of 27 having played fewer than half of Liverpool's league games this season and having been alledgedly (i.e someone posted it on here) shown round the Lancing facilities last summer. So, to rephrase, will playing for a side expected to be more ball playing and attacking bump him up that ranking?

 

[timbha]

GB - I think you are right about Duffy. In my eyes he is made for the Championship/Republic of Ireland - all blood and guts and last ditch defending. He’s rarely injured and if he is he just carries on so 50 + matches a season won’t worry him.

I can’t see him being part of GP’s project and if he is it will just be in the “discovery” stage.

If SD is player of the season next year then GP will have been long gone!

Big season for Dunk even if he isn’t with us, but I suspect he will be. Burn is decent back up but not a ball playing first choice.

This then leaves a question mark over Ryan. Without SD’s strength in the air on corners, etc we may need a 6’6” keeper.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Bloom is a professional gambler and analyses the odds - and he is making a spectacular misjudgment if he thinks he can do what you are arguing.

I suspect Bloom thinks that the Brighton squad is better than it actually is - and that all he needs is a different manager - to get more out of the same resources - time will tell but without a massive cash injection Brighton will struggle next season (and would have had Houghton remained anyway in those circumstances).

Potter's team in Sweden contained English players who had previously plied their trade in non-league football in the UK - his team at Swansea was a mixture of journeymen and academy players - he has never been in the situation he is in now - good luck to him and Brighton, but there is a tough road ahead.


I get it - you don't think that money trumps all in the PL - the evidence suggest otherwise.

Potter has an over-hyped reputation - the claim that he worked miracles without any money with Östersund is false (the clubs had money) - if you really want to see spectacular success with a Scandanavian team then look at the work of Nils Arne Eggen at Rosenborg, taking them from the bottom of the Norwegian second division to the group phase of CL 11 times in 13 seasons. A lot of the 'new' approach of Potter are actually copying the philosophy of Eggen from more than 25 years ago and it requires a very special skill set of coaches and players to pull it off.

This is on the 3-5-2 thread but it's worth informing the discussion even more for you; all the money in the world won't buy you success if your tactics don't allow you to. Let me point you in this direction.

https://totalfootballanalysis.com/h...lbion-chris-hughton-statistics-premier-league

And particularly...

"This lack of imagination in their forward movement was a feature of Brighton’s attack all season and accounts for their struggle in scoring enough goals. By counter-attacking from the low block they often attack with few numbers, often just three players. Because they start from so deep, players are also asked to run 70-80 yards to join the attack, meaning executing high-quality actions are difficult after sprinting such a long distance."

That's right, we spent so much time defending without the ball, and so deeply, that eventually our supposed attack were reduced to knackered auxillary full backs.

 

[sussex_guy2k2]

Exactly why (maybe on this thread or maybe the Hughton's Statement one) I posited that player of the season and all round rock, Shane Duffy *might* be traded for more of a ball playing centre back. It's entirely speculation and I'm not saying I want Duffy to leave as he has been totally brilliant for us. However, if you are trying to get / keep up the other end of the field then do you need a blocking / heading CB with limitations on pace or do you need a quicker ball playing centre half who might not be quite so mental in the block and tackle?

I also think this explains why Dunk has been dropped by Southgate. His blocking is great, his general defending is great and he's got a nice quarterback-like mid to long ball, especially diagonally. But that's not expressly what Southgate is looking for in a centre back when he expects to dominate most games, especially in qualifiers, and play out from the back. The interesting thing is, having played under Poyet and Oscar we know that Dunk CAN play out from the back. Might Potter's introduction see us with an England CB as well as a change beside him?

Exactly this. Defensive numbers are notoriously difficult for statisticians to deal with because they're really hard to give a context to (the classic example being the Maldini tackling example). Duffy, statistically at least, is an excellent defender. But having watched him for 3 seasons there's not a bit of me that thinks he's a top 6 defender because his ability on the ball is incredibly limited, because he really struggles against pace and trickery and because he's a stopper style CB first and foremost and he often gets caught if he has to be the covering defender as his reading of the game when there's space behind the defence isn't quite there. That's one of the many reasons we continued to pick Bruno next to him at the tail end of the season because he needs a full back close to him to cover his lack of mobility.

A good example of this is that Duffy is third in the "clearances" statistic in the whole league at 6.9 per game. That sounds great and improves his rating as a CB in most statistical formulas, but in reality it often suggests that he lacks the composure to play the ball out whilst also suggesting that we're a team that comes under a lot of pressure, requiring him to take such drastic action but also showing why he wouldn't necessarily be suited to a side who aren't under such defensive pressure.

 

[Dirk Lehmann's Python]

So many people dismissing Duffy's passing because he doesn't have a 50 yard ping like Dunk. Weird.

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[sussex_guy2k2]

So many people dismissing Duffy's passing because he doesn't have a 50 yard ping like Dunk. Weird.

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I'm dismissive of it because it's not very good and hasn't been since he arrived. Every player has weaknesses. That's absolutely one of his. But by all means I hope he proves me wrong. That would be some progress for him though.

 

[Dirk Lehmann's Python]

His passing is absolutely fine from what I've seen. Just his turning circle means it takes longer to get it out of his feet.

I don't think it's a problem. Harry Maguire loves a dribble but his passing isn't all that and he's a big part of the England setup.

There seems to be some fictional visions of us needing to rebuild the entire squad to play a passing game which is mad...we've played a passing game of sorts for the last 4 years, it's not as if we're a hoof it and boot it team!

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[Guinness Boy]

His passing is absolutely fine from what I've seen. Just his turning circle means it takes longer to get it out of his feet.

I don't think it's a problem. Harry Maguire loves a dribble but his passing isn't all that and he's a big part of the England setup.

There seems to be some fictional visions of us needing to rebuild the entire squad to play a passing game which is mad...we've played a passing game of sorts for the last 4 years, it's not as if we're a hoof it and boot it team!

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In our first season in the PL we were second in the table for number of long balls played. Last season we played the third most. The only team to beat us twice in that stat was Burnley


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[Dirk Lehmann's Python]

In our first season in the PL we were second in the table for number of long balls played. Last season we played the third most. The only team to beat us twice in that stat was Burnley


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Ok well i stand corrected but I've seen us 36 times this season and on the basis we have 1 up front and play wide i don't think we're a long ball team at all, we're just not a great one


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[Lifelong Supporter]

Duffy brings an excellent element of determination and will to win which a good many others of our squad would do well to copy.

Good dominant ball playing centre halves in the Premier League would cost far more than we choose to pay. He was our player of the year so I suggest that we as supporters support him and what he brings to the team rather than nit pick. I also understand that he is a current full international. .

 

[dazzer6666]

Ok well i stand corrected but I've seen us 36 times this season and on the basis we have 1 up front and play wide i don't think we're a long ball team at all, we're just not a great one


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Our stats are probably impacted by the number of games where we play a long ball out of defence to absolutely no-one. Spurs, Wolves, Man City....we were smacking aimless long balls out of defence to clear our lines time and again.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Ok well i stand corrected but I've seen us 36 times this season and on the basis we have 1 up front and play wide i don't think we're a long ball team at all, we're just not a great one


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Our stats are probably impacted by the number of games where we play a long ball out of defence to absolutely no-one. Spurs, Wolves, Man City....we were smacking aimless long balls out of defence to clear our lines time and again.

Absolutely. I'm not saying we're a Wimbledon of the 80s team. I'm saying exactly the fact that we play one up front and drop the wingers back 80 yards when we don't have the ball means the long pass to Murray or the hoofed clearance back to the other team were often the only options.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Ok well i stand corrected but I've seen us 36 times this season and on the basis we have 1 up front and play wide i don't think we're a long ball team at all, we're just not a great one


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I know you know that I didn't do that many but I only missed one home game and watched most of the aways on a stream. One thing about promotion is that the days of missing out because you can't or don't want to go away are long gone

 

[Dirk Lehmann's Python]

I know you know that I didn't do that many but I only missed one home game and watched most of the aways on a stream. One thing about promotion is that the days of missing out because you can't or don't want to go away are long gone

That wasn't a dig (you might have been to every away game for all i know!)

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[Weststander]

In our first season in the PL we were second in the table for number of long balls played. Last season we played the third most. The only team to beat us twice in that stat was Burnley


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Desperation hoofs, when being high pressed?

 

[dazzer6666]

Desperation hoofs, when being high pressed?

Yes......at Spurs it was embarrassing