[Brighton] All Brighton & Hove primary schools to switch to online learning from Monday ?

[Steve in Japan]

I don't think it's just factions within the Tory Party. There are some, certainly, but I think it's broadly representative of our society.



So there are decent and intelligent people out there that have nothing to do with the Tory party who believe that a disease that thrives on close contact between people can not be mitigated by trying to stop people having close contact with others.

Say we stay in Tier 4 with Schools shut (lockdown again), but the numbers of new cases fail to decrease - then what next? That's a question I have been asking myself of late.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

My point was you appeared to attack the poster for doing the belittling when they were merely passing on a quote from a friend in teaching

Ok, I could have said ‘so what’ I suppose

 

[blue-shifted]

What an absolute load of words, mixed around to dupe the unwary
Scary stuff

And there are a large number of unwary. I followed the same fella as Bozza quoted for a few months.

Generally starts with some psuedo-science. Moves quickly to the obfuscation. Notable lack of acknowledgement of other sides of the argument, eg 500+ a day are dying. Comments below almost universally refer to defunding the BBC and getting brexit done.

Now unfollowed

 

[blue-shifted]

Say we stay in Tier 4 with Schools shut (lockdown again), but the numbers of new cases fail to decrease - then what next? That's a question I have been asking myself of late.

The R number of the new variant (s) is higher. We clearly need a full national lockdown. That's step 1.

If that fails there might be more draconian steps. Other countries banned outdoor exercise. I don't think it would be impossible to gain the nations consent for that if deaths were spiralling up to 2k per day, given the fact that the impact of vaccines are on the horizon

 

[Steve in Japan]

These are the numbers on the Zoe app that I use. There is no way I am sending my kids to school with this happening. I have complained to our school given their decision to open, and asked for remote learning. Worse case, my son will be doing some exercises I find online

View attachment 132036

The gov.uk numbers say Brighton and Hove had a cumulative total of 7580 as at 2nd Jan, the total as at 5th Dec was 4252 (28 days earlier), so that estimate seems about right.

 

[Steve in Japan]

The R number of the new variant (s) is higher. We clearly need a full national lockdown. That's step 1.

If that fails there might be more draconian steps. Other countries banned outdoor exercise. I don't think it would be impossible to gain the nations consent for that if deaths were spiralling up to 2k per day, given the fact that the impact of vaccines are on the horizon

The only variable of where we are today vs what you describe as full lockdown IS outdoor exercise. Is that really likely to be a major transmission risk? We have been told all along you are very unlikely to catch this outside if socially distanced.

I'm a bit more sceptical than you about how much more people will tolerate, and I am also fervently hoping we do not see that level of deaths. However, the pace of vaccination is likely be glacial - the NHS is not signing up to the 2m a week target, but even at that level you are talking 5 months plus to get 60+% of the population.

Would be delighted to be proved wrong about that last bit.

 

[blue-shifted]

The only variable of where we are today vs what you describe as full lockdown IS outdoor exercise. Is that really likely to be a major transmission risk? We have been told all along you are very unlikely to catch this outside if socially distanced.

I'm a bit more sceptical than you about how much more people will tolerate, and I am also fervently hoping we do not see that level of deaths. However, the pace of vaccination is likely be glacial - the NHS is not signing up to the 2m a week target, but even at that level you are talking 5 months plus to get 60+% of the population.

Would be delighted to be proved wrong about that last bit.

I suppose it makes it easier for the police to determine who is out legitimately and who isn't.

Other things are still in place that could be removed. cleaners / nannies / builders in homes could need to go if things got really bad.

Again, it wouldn't be for ever

Oh, and where's test and trace in all this?

 

[atomised]

The only variable of where we are today vs what you describe as full lockdown IS outdoor exercise. Is that really likely to be a major transmission risk? We have been told all along you are very unlikely to catch this outside if socially distanced.

I'm a bit more sceptical than you about how much more people will tolerate, and I am also fervently hoping we do not see that level of deaths. However, the pace of vaccination is likely be glacial - the NHS is not signing up to the 2m a week target, but even at that level you are talking 5 months plus to get 60+% of the population.

Would be delighted to be proved wrong about that last bit.

I'm not convinced that banning outdoor exercise will have much impact at all. I walk. It helps my mental health. I rarely see anyone whilst walking and when I do I can easily avoid getting within 20 metres of them

 

[Steve in Japan]

Oh, and where's test and trace in all this?

The elephant in the room. How the heck could you do it effectively for 50,000 plus cases a day, I don't know. I'd be delighted to be corrected if somebody here knows.

 

[Steve in Japan]

I'm not convinced that banning outdoor exercise will have much impact at all. I walk. It helps my mental health. I rarely see anyone whilst walking and when I do I can easily avoid getting within 20 metres of them

I'm the same.

 

[blue-shifted]

The elephant in the room. How the heck could you do it effectively for 50,000 plus cases a day, I don't know. I'd be delighted to be corrected if somebody here knows.

You'd probably need a world class system to achieve it.

Snide comments aside, there are 12,000 track and tracers as of last summer, so there should be the capacity to handle large numbers. 4 a day

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

When do people think the latest Boris u-turn will happen then? He was pretty adamant schools will stay open this morning. Tuesday volte-face?

Looks like I called this wrong as he has scheduled his latest u-turn for 8pm tonight.

 

[Wardy's twin]

Not allowed? Really? Plenty of mask wearing teachers at my kids school.

Double checked with my daughter. She was not explicitly told that she could not wear one but it was not encouraged. I stand corrected on that point but re-iterate that as a support person for a child who needs extra support social distancing is not applicable so the risks increase.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I suppose it makes it easier for the police to determine who is out legitimately and who isn't.

Other things are still in place that could be removed. cleaners / nannies / builders in homes could need to go if things got really bad.

Again, it wouldn't be for ever

Oh, and where's test and trace in all this?

Masks compulsory in all ( essential ) work places even if desks etc. are 2m apart ?

 

[timbha]

Looks like I called this wrong as he has scheduled his latest u-turn for 8pm tonight.

There are many posts on this thread that I could make this point to so please don’t think I’m picking on you!

Please could someone explain what they actually mean by “closing all schools’? More specifically does this include vulnerable children (whose only safe haven is often the school) and the children of key workers (where more and more people consider themselves as key)?

What should happen to these kids if the schools aren’t safe?

Sorry if this has already even covered

 

[Beach Hut]

There are many posts on this thread that I could make this point to so please don’t think I’m picking on you!

Please could someone explain what they actually mean by “closing all schools’? More specifically does this include vulnerable children (whose only safe haven is often the school) and the children of key workers (where more and more people consider themselves as key)?

What should happen to these kids if the schools aren’t safe?

Sorry if this has already even covered

Schools are open for vulnerable and key worker children, my wife is working Wednesday this week

 

[BNthree]

Oh, and where's test and trace in all this?

About £108m richer! What an utter farce that all was.

 

[timbha]

Schools are open for vulnerable and key worker children, my wife is working Wednesday this week

Yes, I know they are. I’m just trying to make the point that most schools can’t close.

 

[Notters]

The only variable of where we are today vs what you describe as full lockdown IS outdoor exercise. Is that really likely to be a major transmission risk? We have been told all along you are very unlikely to catch this outside if socially distanced.

I'm a bit more sceptical than you about how much more people will tolerate, and I am also fervently hoping we do not see that level of deaths. However, the pace of vaccination is likely be glacial - the NHS is not signing up to the 2m a week target, but even at that level you are talking 5 months plus to get 60+% of the population.

Would be delighted to be proved wrong about that last bit.

With regard to the last bit, the virus has shown itself to be very much seasonal so I expect it to go down naturally before that anyway.

 

[ATFC Seagull]

https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-teacher-covid-rates-333-above-average

Covid rates among schools staff in some areas are as much as four times the corresponding local authority average, Tes can reveal.

Figures for three councils obtained by the NASUWT teachers' union show that the staff coronavirus infections are far outstripping local rates, casting doubt on the government's repeated assertion that teachers are at no greater risk than other workers.

The data gives the average Covid prevalence rates (per 100,000 over seven days) for school staff compared to the local authority as a whole, for a period during the autumn term.

In Leeds, the rate for secondary school staff was more than four times that of the general population or 333 per cent higher.

The data shows that the prevalence rate was, on average, 1089.5 for primary staff and 1750.5 for secondary staff, compared to 404.3 for the LA as a whole. This average was taken for a period spanning from the week ending 19 October to the week ending 20 November.

And in Birmingham, the rate among school staff was more than three times higher than the local average. The data shows that, across the same time period, the prevalence rate was, on average, 1146.1 for primary staff and 1027.2 for secondary staff, compared to 312.2 for the LA as a whole. This excludes the half-term week.

In Greenwich, London, the prevalence rate was also significantly higher for school staff – at, on average, 264 for staff across primary and secondary schools, compared to 98 for the LA as a whole. However this average was taken for a longer period – spanning from early September to the end of November.

The three councils were the only to provide school staff Covid prevalence rates out of 28 approached by the union.

Obviously based on quite limited data but still quite damning.