[Politics] Donald Trump, US President

Harry Wilson's tackle · Wednesday at 11:04 AM

RyFish said:
It was 75m and 77m - quite close - but your point clearly stands

Cheers.

I don't really like the 'voter apathy' trope.
Labour used to use it when they kept losing (to Thatcher).

Another oft-stated trope is that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.
I suspect this applies both to the defenestration of Sunak and the rejection of Biden (Harris merely being mini-B).

Insel affe · Wednesday at 11:06 AM

Trump has a lovely offer for Zelensky, seems reasonable...
So generous.

"Zelensky turns now to a question about a proposal from Trump which would allow the US to take a percentage of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, including lithium and titanium.

He says he rejected it because the first draft said Ukraine would have to grant the US 50% ownership of its materials, and made no mention of the security guarantees Zelensky sought.

"I am protecting Ukraine, I can’t sell it away, I cant sell our state," he add".

Harry Wilson's tackle · Wednesday at 11:07 AM

Triggaaar said:
No, that's not what's happening. Starmer was only talking about after the war has ended. The war in nowhere near ending, so no British troops (or French, Italian, Polish, German etc) can be deployed.

Worst case scenario right now is that Trump withdraws support from Ukraine and removes sanctions from Russia (I can't see any logic for the latter), but Europe will continue to support Ukraine and the war will continue. Russia are not making progress on the battlefield.

That's not stepping back, that is already the plan.

Might? It will definitely keep going, Russia are not making great inroads in Ukraine, they can't even take Kursk back.

It would be Trump acting against the entire free world. Does America want a trade war with all of its allies?

The rest of the EU are already with Starmer. You're not following this Harry.

Not going to happen. It's not for the US to dictate to the UK and EU how to defend Europe. If we stopped arming Ukraine, Russia would take the whole of Ukraine, and then they'd go for the Baltics, Moldova, Romania, etc. You think Europe are going to stand by and let that happen? Don't be daft.

It's not 'perhaps' others in the EU, the others in the EU will definitely keep supporting Ukraine. The alternative is war all across Europe.

Thanks. To be fair (to me) I was playing with scenarios, not advocating them. Some are self-evidently absurd.

But so would be a no-plan initiative from Trump.

So.....what do you think will happen?

Algernon · Wednesday at 11:12 AM

It can't be too long before the jumped up used car salesman should start checking under boardroom tables for discarded briefcases.
Someone's going to take a potshot at him soon enough.
Him and his pet monkey.
His ego is running away with him and it's going to have a huge effect on the whole world. It's not an episode of The Apprentice but his tiny brain can't see past "DEALS."

Greg Bobkin · Wednesday at 11:17 AM

Triggaaar said:
But how does he stop the war when Europe don't agree, and we keep supplying Ukraine, and Ukraine keep fighting?

Ukraine themselves produce 2.5 million drones, which will keep bombing Russia.

He tells Putin to get the FACK out of a country that doesn't belong to them...

I know, right?!

Pevenseagull · Wednesday at 11:17 AM

Triggaaar said:
But how does he stop the war when Europe don't agree, and we keep supplying Ukraine, and Ukraine keep fighting?

Ukraine themselves produce 2.5 million drones, which will keep bombing Russia.

Then the USA calls Europe evil for funding the Ukrainians terrorists. I guess.

The Kremlin's already got a friend in charge of US national intelligence.

(I really wish I was being a looney conspiracy theorist here but it happened in plain sight.)

schmunk · Wednesday at 11:28 AM

Thunder Bolt said:
The problem in America was apathy.
74 million voted for Harris, 79 million for Trump and 84 million didn’t vote at all.

They had a 63.9% turnout.

Labour's recent landslide demolition of the Tories came from a 59.8% turnout.

Triggaaar · Wednesday at 11:50 AM

Pevenseagull said:
Then the USA calls Europe evil for funding the Ukrainians terrorists. I guess.

And that still doesn't stop the war.

Mellor 3 Ward 4 · Wednesday at 11:55 AM

Thunder Bolt said:
The problem in America was apathy.
74 million voted for Harris, 79 million for Trump and 84 million didn’t vote at all.

As a percentage more voted for Trump in the States than Starmer here in the UK.....

And Labour won a landslide.

The problem wasn't apathy, it was the Democrats letting Biden announce he was going to run, and then replacing him (far, far too late) with someone that was never going to win.

Triggaaar · Wednesday at 11:59 AM

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Thanks. To be fair (to me) I was playing with scenarios, not advocating them. Some are self-evidently absurd.

But so would be a no-plan initiative from Trump.

So.....what do you think will happen?

I think the war will continue. I think Europe will keep supplying Ukraine and Ukraine will keep fighting.

I really don't have a clue what Trump will do. I don't know if they'll remove sanctions or stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. These things will effect how well Ukraine/Russia do.

Presumably at some point Trump will realise he's not getting the peace he thought he'd get. He may blame Ukraine (as he is now), he may blame Russia, who knows. He wants more power and wealth for himself, but it's really difficult to work out how he plans to get that. I can believe that he's stupid enough to think Ukraine will accept a peace deal where Russia gets everything they want, but I'm struggling to believe his advisors haven't at least aired the view that Ukraine and Europe probably won't accept. I can believe his advisors are scared to step out of line, but you'd still find a way to mention it. It's weird.

Triggaaar · Wednesday at 12:02 PM

Insel affe said:
Trump has a lovely offer for Zelensky, seems reasonable...
So generous.

"Zelensky turns now to a question about a proposal from Trump which would allow the US to take a percentage of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, including lithium and titanium.

He says he rejected it because the first draft said Ukraine would have to grant the US 50% ownership of its materials, and made no mention of the security guarantees Zelensky sought.

"I am protecting Ukraine, I can’t sell it away, I cant sell our state," he add".

I think Zelenskyy and his government should pass a law that no one (including the president) should be allowed to give away their resources. Sell them at a fair rate, yes, but not give them away. Giving trillions of dollars worth of raw materials for a few hundred billion in aid, is not close to a fair rate.

Greg Bobkin · Wednesday at 12:27 PM

Triggaaar said:
I think the war will continue. I think Europe will keep supplying Ukraine and Ukraine will keep fighting.

I really don't have a clue what Trump will do. I don't know if they'll remove sanctions or stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. These things will effect how well Ukraine/Russia do.

Presumably at some point Trump will realise he's not getting the peace he thought he'd get. He may blame Ukraine (as he is now), he may blame Russia, who knows. He wants more power and wealth for himself, but it's really difficult to work out how he plans to get that. I can believe that he's stupid enough to think Ukraine will accept a peace deal where Russia gets everything they want, but I'm struggling to believe his advisors haven't at least aired the view that Ukraine and Europe probably won't accept. I can believe his advisors are scared to step out of line, but you'd still find a way to mention it. It's weird.

Whatever happens, it's a million miles away from his boast about stopping the war on day one, which was clearly bullshit to everyone, along with the ongoing claims that the war would never have started if he was president.

On a related note, here are some of the other "On day one..." bullshit he came out with that he didn't achieve (surprise, surprise).

What did Trump not do on Day 1 that he promised?

New president’s unmet promises include a commitment to end the war in Ukraine in ‘24 hours’

www.independent.co.uk

Thunder Bolt · Wednesday at 1:56 PM

Mellor 3 Ward 4 said:
As a percentage more voted for Trump in the States than Starmer here in the UK.....

And Labour won a landslide.

The problem wasn't apathy, it was the Democrats letting Biden announce he was going to run, and then replacing him (far, far too late) with someone that was never going to win.

Oh the shame of allowing a black woman to think she could be President. Let’s blame the Democrats!

it doesn’t compare with a British election where there are six or more political parties to choose from.

Pevenseagull · Wednesday at 1:57 PM

keaton said:
If anyone hasn't seen this yet I recommend it. Probably the scariest film I've ever seen

BBC Four - Storyville, Praying for Armageddon

Storyville film exploring the power and influence of American Evangelical Christians.

www.bbc.co.uk

The problem with evangelicals taking the Bible literally as the word of God is their interpretation.

for example

Leviticus 19:33-34

if a stranger dwells with you in your land you must not mistreat him......you shall love him as yourself.... I am the Lord your God.

superficially looks pretty straightforward but the evangelical right believes this means:

Jesus is coming back and when he turns up you better have an assault carbine waiting for him to slay disbelievers.

Ethelwulf · Wednesday at 2:05 PM

Trump is the anti christ . He will change the law so he can stand as president again in 2028 he will invade Greenland and will ally with Russia in a war with china and then cause a civil war in his own country . He is the 21st century Hitler or Stalin

Triggaaar · Wednesday at 2:28 PM

Thunder Bolt said:
Oh the shame of allowing a black woman to think she could be President. Let’s blame the Democrats!

Hopefully a black woman does become President one day, but the Democrats do deserve criticism for not beating Trump.

cheshunt seagull · Wednesday at 2:40 PM

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
That's a good point.

Starmer was talking about British troops on the ground, yesterday.
I didn't think too much about that as I was busy.
Now you have asked your sensible questions....

I assume that if Trump decides Putin can keep what he stole then Starmer will have to decide if we should effectively go to war with Russia.
I can't see it happening myself.
Starmer could step back and 'simply' keep arming Ukraine from a distance, like now.
That might keep the war going for longer.
But to do this Starmer would be acting against Trump's wishes.
So Trump could (would?) start a trade war with the UK.

Would the rest of the EU join in with Starmer?
They would probably have to have a meeting to discuss it.
In 2026, in Davos.

The other scenario is Trump says 'this is how it will be, the UK and others must stop arming Ukraine now'.
And we stop.

The scenario that seems to be favoured on NSC at the moment, however, is that Trump is an idiot, Putin will mess him about,
and Trump will flounce.....leaving Starmer (and others in the EU perhaps) to arm Ukraine without fear of US sanctions.
To me this seems the least likely scenario, but I admit that I know nothing about political brinkmanship.

I tend to agree about this being an unlikely scenario. Putin will view having someone as gullible as Trump in the White House as way to valuable to mess up this early on. So I think he will find a way to get what he wants and let Trump take a lot of the credit. Trump may realise that he has been duped when Putin makes his next move; probably into the Baltic states but by then it will be too late as NATO will have been weakened. Putin knows the value of what Lenin is supposed to have described as 'useful idiots'.

Berty23 · Wednesday at 2:40 PM

Mellor 3 Ward 4 said:
As a percentage more voted for Trump in the States than Starmer here in the UK.....

And Labour won a landslide.

The problem wasn't apathy, it was the Democrats letting Biden announce he was going to run, and then replacing him (far, far too late) with someone that was never going to win.

Starmer received 64.5% vote share where his name was on the ballot. That feels higher than trump to me.

Obviously if you misunderstand our electoral system I can see why you think might think trump for more but we don’t have a presidential system.

Berty23 · Wednesday at 2:47 PM

Triggaaar said:
Hopefully a black woman does become President one day, but the Democrats do deserve criticism for not beating Trump.

Let’s walk before we try and run. Let’s hope there will be another election in our lifetimes

The Clamp · Wednesday at 2:50 PM

Berty23 said:
Let’s walk before we try and run. Let’s hope there will be another election in our lifetimes

I don’t think we need worry about that .

Trump has tried to change a few laws and has been shut down quite definitively.

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[Politics] Donald Trump, US President

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

President Joe Biden - Democrat

Donald Trump - Republican

Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

Other Democratic candidate tbc

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