[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Eric the meek · Thursday at 12:46 PM

These monetary economists have got no common sense. Mark, PUT A HAT ON, and save 25% of your heat loss.

TLDR: If, (if) the central bank is going to freeze, or partially freeze, people's assets, that is a red alert. He says the information is coming out of Russia from non-official sources. Prediction is June or July.

GoldstoneVintage · Thursday at 1:38 PM

Eric the meek said:
These monetary economists have got no common sense. Mark, PUT A HAT ON, and save 25% of your heat loss.

TLDR: If, (if) the central bank is going to freeze, or partially freeze, people's assets, that is a red alert. He says the information is coming out of Russia from non-official sources. Prediction is June or July.

Here's hoping!

Sirnormangall · Thursday at 1:54 PM

Steve Rosenberg’s daily review of Russian newspapers (YouTube) is interesting again today. Interview with Patruschev saying that Ukraine and Moldova will soon cease to exist and that Russia won’t negotiate with anyone except USA. They won’t negotiate with Brussels because it doesn’t represent the views of European states who want a more balanced real with Russia

raymondo · Thursday at 2:15 PM

Sirnormangall said:
Steve Rosenberg’s daily review of Russian newspapers (YouTube) is interesting again today. Interview with Patruschev saying that Ukraine and Moldova will soon cease to exist and that Russia won’t negotiate with anyone except USA. They won’t negotiate with Brussels because it doesn’t represent the views of European states who want a more balanced real with Russia

I hope they also have to negotiate with the country in Europe that has the most experienced military, and that knows the Russians best...i.e. Ukraine.

fly high · Thursday at 3:45 PM

Sirnormangall said:
Steve Rosenberg’s daily review of Russian newspapers (YouTube) is interesting again today. Interview with Patruschev saying that Ukraine and Moldova will soon cease to exist and that Russia won’t negotiate with anyone except USA. They won’t negotiate with Brussels because it doesn’t represent the views of European states who want a more balanced real with Russia

What we, the EU, NATO or the US think is truly far less important than what Ukraine wants. If Russia really will only negotiate with the USA do they think Trump will give them what they want. Worrying.

raymondo · Thursday at 3:55 PM

Eric the meek · Thursday at 4:23 PM

fly high said:
What we, the EU, NATO or the US think is truly far less important than what Ukraine wants. If Russia really will only negotiate with the USA do they think Trump will give them what they want. Worrying.

This has been a theme throughout the war. They think the US calls the shots, with Ukraine following US orders, so any negotiations must be conducted with the US and not the country they are invading.

It may stem from their view of Ukraine being just another part of Russia, which they wouldn't stoop to negotiate with. They just don't see Ukraine as an independent, sovereign country, however arcane, out of date and deeply flawed this is to us.

If the aggressor is not prepared to negotiate with the country it has invaded, and wants to negotiate with someone else, this could be a challenge for any peace talks.

Triggaaar · Thursday at 4:41 PM

Sirnormangall said:
Steve Rosenberg’s daily review of Russian newspapers (YouTube) is interesting again today. Interview with Patruschev saying that Ukraine and Moldova will soon cease to exist

Aren't they lovely.

Sirnormangall said:
and that Russia won’t negotiate with anyone except USA. They won’t negotiate with Brussels because it doesn’t represent the views of European states who want a more balanced real with Russia

The balance we wanted was fair play on all sides. That's not what Russia wants. If any country were to cease to exist, I'd prefer it to be Russia. It would be better for humanity.

Sirnormangall · Thursday at 10:18 PM

Triggaaar said:
But would it be worse for Russia if China weren't saving these companies? I'm concerned if China feel that they're invested in Russia and want to support it.

That’s my concern too. But it’s possible also that China simply sees a great opportunity to take advantage of a fire sale and secure fossil fuel sources and at far lower cost than it might otherwise have to pay

Eric the meek · Friday at 7:35 AM

Well, I must say, this is all very encouraging.

TLDR: Russia needs its $300 billion of frozen assets back. Why? Because, in order to wage its war, it forced its banks to give $250 billion of preferential loans to defence companies to match its own official government budgets. Russia's central bank is incapable of bailing out either the banks or the defence companies as all the loans on their books are toxic and can never be paid back.

Those rumours flying around Russia about confiscating people's savings, just got a bit more real.

raymondo · Friday at 8:01 AM

Sirnormangall said:
Steve Rosenberg’s daily review of Russian newspapers (YouTube) is interesting again today. Interview with Patruschev saying that Ukraine and Moldova will soon cease to exist and that Russia won’t negotiate with anyone except USA. They won’t negotiate with Brussels because it doesn’t represent the views of European states who want a more balanced real with Russia

I hope Mr Kellog also gathers the views of all European countries,

raymondo · Friday at 9:20 AM

Eric the meek said:
Well, I must say, this is all very encouraging.

TLDR: Russia needs its $300 billion of frozen assets back. Why? Because, in order to wage its war, it forced its banks to give $250 billion of preferential loans to defence companies to match its own official government budgets. Russia's central bank is incapable of bailing out either the banks or the defence companies as all the loans on their books are toxic and can never be paid back.

Those rumours flying around Russia about confiscating people's savings, just got a bit more real.

A very good update thanks. Jake is consistently good and relevant

raymondo · Friday at 9:22 AM

raymondo · Friday at 9:29 AM

The president of Iran arrived in Moscow today to sign a strategic agreement (blah blah blah) with Russia ....as there's a vacancy since Syria left the club.
I am hopeful that, seeing as Trump isn't too fond of Iran or Chaina, he'll feel like playing extreme hardball with Putin.

Binney on acid · Friday at 9:39 AM

raymondo said:

Whilst I take delight in seeing Russian oil depots ablaze, it's Moscow that I want to see razed to the ground.

GT49er · Friday at 9:42 AM

Binney on acid said:
Whilst I take delight in seeing Russian oil depots ablaze, it's Moscow that I want to see razed to the ground.

Not razed to the ground - but some damage to Moscow and St. Petersburg to shake the influential inhabitants out of their complacency would be good.

Eric the meek · Friday at 9:49 AM

raymondo said:
A very good update thanks. Jake is consistently good and relevant

Yes, he's very good.

I also liked the translation of the MP in the Duma, and the reactions of other MPs, i.e. 'we really shouldn't be talking about this' etc. I enjoyed that.
They appear to have let the genie out of the bottle.

raymondo · Friday at 10:44 AM

Eric the meek said:
Yes, he's very good.

I also liked the translation of the MP in the Duma, and the reactions of other MPs, i.e. 'we really shouldn't be talking about this' etc. I enjoyed that.
They appear to have let the genie out of the bottle.

I wonder how the Duma discussion video got released. Is it standard practice? (I doubt it). An official leak to prepare the ground/ check reaction (as if the Kremlin cares overly, although they don't want too much trouble). Or an unofficial leak by a Duma attendee

Eric the meek · Friday at 11:20 AM

raymondo said:
I wonder how the Duma discussion video got released. Is it standard practice? (I doubt it). An official leak to prepare the ground/ check reaction (as if the Kremlin cares overly, although they don't want too much trouble). Or an unofficial leak by a Duma attendee

I'm sure that all output from the Duma is curated. So you raise a good point. Was it an official leak to test the water? Or was it an unofficial leak but let through? The reaction of one MP, looking across at someone, seemed genuine. But that could have been part of the act.

So in conclusion, I don't know. But whether it was official or unofficial, confiscating people's savings is probably being looked at, although it might not happen in practice.
But the important thing is that it is being looked at. That tells us they are running out of money and are looking at options.

raymondo · Friday at 7:32 PM

Eric the meek said:
These monetary economists have got no common sense. Mark, PUT A HAT ON, and save 25% of your heat loss.

TLDR: If, (if) the central bank is going to freeze, or partially freeze, people's assets, that is a red alert. He says the information is coming out of Russia from non-official sources. Prediction is June or July.

Just watched it... he's hilarious sometimes, very eccentric and passionate.
His prediction is the Russian economy falls apart catastrophically at end of June. So, Trumpy, no reduction of sanctions, take your time, plenty of meetings, and be patient.

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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

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