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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)









Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
Jesus wept. There must be hundreds of drones in that attack.
In my naivety, I assumed those lights would be tracer fire to light the way for anti-aircraft targeting.

But you could be right. They could be an overwhelming volume of drones.

The Kazan attack was just a handful of larger drones (= large payload). Every raid is different.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,241
I take it that with all this talk and theorising of Putin’s long term plans, all the stories, previously published in the media, about him being terminally ill are nonsense?
Even if Putin is terminally I think there would be concern that his successor might continue in the same vein, particularly if anointed by Putin
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,621
Goldstone
Even if Putin is terminally I think there would be concern that his successor might continue in the same vein, particularly if anointed by Putin

Even if I believed in Putin, I'd be thinking I had a better chance of survival and success if I ended the war and got things in Russia back to how they were.
 


Sirnormangall

Well-known member
Sep 21, 2017
3,241
Even if I believed in Putin, I'd be thinking I had a better chance of survival and success if I ended the war and got things in Russia back to how they were.
I hope you’re right. As you say, Putin’s successor would have a great opportunity to rebuild bridges (literally!) at home and abroad. That would be the logical thing to do. But Russia also seems to have great capacity for producing tyrannical leaders who despise and fear the west.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
Even if I believed in Putin, I'd be thinking I had a better chance of survival and success if I ended the war and got things in Russia back to how they were.
I suspect that if I lived in Russia, I would be compliant. I would put my life and freedom above taking any risks. It may not be popular on here, but I'm being honest.
I think I would try to make the best of it. Perhaps I would fight back on a low level, always assessing the risk to my life. I am more use to my family if I'm alive.

That said, if I saw unrest/rebellion taking off, I would probably partake in it, at a point where I judged the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.
There may be people in Russia right now, weighing this up.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,621
Goldstone
I suspect that if I lived in Russia, I would be compliant. I would put my life and freedom above taking any risks. It may not be popular on here, but I'm being honest.
I think I would try to make the best of it. Perhaps I would fight back on a low level, always assessing the risk to my life. I am more use to my family if I'm alive.

That said, if I saw unrest/rebellion taking off, I would probably partake in it, at a point where I judged the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.
There may be people in Russia right now, weighing this up.

Yeah but we weren't talking about citizens, we were talking about Putin's successor.
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
Yeah but we weren't talking about citizens, we were talking about Putin's successor.
Yes, I know! But we don't know if there is going to be a successor, if there is one, who it will be, when it will happen, whether Putin's successor is already in power, or if a thousand other things may happen instead. The Kremlin is like a black box. Very little information escapes.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,656
Wiltshire
I hope you’re right. As you say, Putin’s successor would have a great opportunity to rebuild bridges (literally!) at home and abroad. That would be the logical thing to do. But Russia also seems to have great capacity for producing tyrannical leaders who despise and fear the west.
I don't think they fear the West - I think their 'leaders' despise democracy because it reduces the power of the heads, and reduces corruption opportunities. If the propaganda was removed for long enough, their citizens might enjoy democracy, with all its faults.😉
 




Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
I don't think they fear the West - I think their 'leaders' despise democracy because it reduces the power of the heads, and reduces corruption opportunities. If the propaganda was removed for long enough, their citizens might enjoy democracy, with all its faults.😉
And the citizens might cotton on to the fact that they have effectively bankrolled the brutality and kleptocracy of the elite. And then the elite would enjoy a severely reduced longevity.

I have always thought that the thing that Putin really fears, is the Russian people. That's why he controls the media, employing propagandists to steer the narrative. Why he quickly removes anti-war protesters, imprisoning them for decades. Why he outlaws criticism of the armed forces. He nips any and all organised dissent in the bud.
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,288
I don't think they fear the West - I think their 'leaders' despise democracy because it reduces the power of the heads, and reduces corruption opportunities. If the propaganda was removed for long enough, their citizens might enjoy democracy, with all its faults.😉
Putin's trumped up accusation about Ukrainians being Nazis is well known bullshit. The reality is that he could not allow a prosperous, free democracy to develop on his doorstep. Russians would be casting a jealous eye to the West and wonder why they could not have the same as the Ukrainians.

That's why he had to invade to try and stifle them. Ukraine wasn't the perfect democracy but, it was improving and becoming less corrupt and a more advanced society.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
Putin's trumped up accusation about Ukrainians being Nazis is well known bullshit. The reality is that he could not allow a prosperous, free democracy to develop on his doorstep. Russians would be casting a jealous eye to the West and wonder why they could not have the same as the Ukrainians.

That's why he had to invade to try and stifle them. Ukraine wasn't the perfect democracy but, it was improving and becoming less corrupt and a more advanced society.
You are almost certainly right. I recall the propagandists have several times said things to the effect of 'why does Russia need democracy?' and 'why do you want us to be like you?'. That messaging will have come straight from the Kremlin of course. It is afraid of democracy.

Remember this?

 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
AND another one...

If anyone is interested, there seems to be a back story to this.

First, it is a little confusing in that the Ursa Major - could - be the same ship (Sparta) that I reported had broken down in post #19,219.
In a comment I read some

Here is the link again:


Here is the same ship in trouble, (Ursa major) as reported by Special Kherson Cat:



Warning of skullduggery: I saw somewhere (no, I don't) that the Ursa Major is/was owned by a sanctioned Russian company, and had been renamed Sparta, (presumably to bypass sanctions), and there is a hint of a suggestion that Ukraine may have known about it.

Anyway, now Ursa Major is Ursa Minor, and will soon be Ursa Minus ! (With thanks to one of the Americans).

(I hope you all followed this - I will be testing you all on it later on today).
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,656
Wiltshire
If anyone is interested, there seems to be a back story to this.

First, it is a little confusing in that the Ursa Major - could - be the same ship (Sparta) that I reported had broken down in post #19,219.
In a comment I read some

Here is the link again:


Here is the same ship in trouble, (Ursa major) as reported by Special Kherson Cat:



Warning of skullduggery: I saw somewhere (no, I don't) that the Ursa Major is/was owned by a sanctioned Russian company, and had been renamed Sparta, (presumably to bypass sanctions), and there is a hint of a suggestion that Ukraine may have known about it.

Anyway, now Ursa Major is Ursa Minor, and will soon be Ursa Minus ! (With thanks to one of the Americans).

(I hope you all followed this - I will be testing you all on it later on today).

I've read the links, and many of the appended comments...and...and... it's confusing isn't it?! One ship, two ships?
Going to move equipment from Tartus? to Libya? Going to Vladivostok with cranes and hatches for the nuclear powered icebreaker!? Small maintenance issue vs sabotage?
I'm afraid I'll be unavailable for the test later today 😂
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,457
I've read the links, and many of the appended comments...and...and... it's confusing isn't it?! One ship, two ships?
Going to move equipment from Tartus? to Libya? Going to Vladivostok with cranes and hatches for the nuclear powered icebreaker!? Small maintenance issue vs sabotage?
I'm afraid I'll be unavailable for the test later today 😂
The test has been cancelled. Ukrainian intelligence have hacked into my account and answered all the questions.

I was thrown by the Vladivostok thing as well. But it could be true, or at least what was intended. The incident happened hundreds of miles past Libya.
What also might be true, is the Russians are doing all they can to bypass the sanctions.

As an aside, I'm a bit surprised they appear not to have any heavy duty cranes in Vladivostok. A sign of the times?
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,656
Wiltshire
The test has been cancelled. Ukrainian intelligence have hacked into my account and answered all the questions.

I was thrown by the Vladivostok thing as well. But it could be true, or at least what was intended. The incident happened hundreds of miles past Libya.
What also might be true, is the Russians are doing all they can to bypass the sanctions.

As an aside, I'm a bit surprised they appear not to have any heavy duty cranes in Vladivostok. A sign of the times?
I think the implication is they have some heavy cranes in Vladivostok, just NOT enough for their workload 🤔.
I'm curious as to where the cranes were loaded? Tartus? or recently manufactured? I imagine there'll be a feed on that soon on the internet.
'edited'
 
Last edited:


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,621
Goldstone
I've read the links, and many of the appended comments...and...and... it's confusing isn't it?! One ship, two ships?

They've taken to giving the front and back of the ships different names, in case they get separated.
 


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