[Albion] Top 4 finish

Uh_huh_him · Apr 6, 2023

Jim in the West said:
If you look at these graphs, we should potentially already be in the Champions League spots:

View attachment 159354

Xg tables are the biggest pile of shit ever...
Xg just demonstrates the dominance of an attack/defence over the duration of a game, it has no relation to the correct outcome.

Potter proved you can stat pad your perceived attacking threat, by having 20+ unlikely chances per game, but in reality only look like scoring 0-1 goals.
As the table above shows, he's still at it, with a 7th place position....

Audax · Apr 6, 2023

GT49er said:
That went (predictably) well...................

Plenty more chances for them to drop points and allow us a foot in the door. Third is possible. 5th or 6th more likely. But I like the idea of targeting third, as IMO it makes it more likely we land 4th or 5th.

warmleyseagull · Apr 6, 2023

Uh_huh_him said:
Xg tables are the biggest pile of shit ever...
Xg just demonstrates the dominance of an attack/defence over the duration of a game, it has no relation to the correct outcome.

Que? If it 'demonstrates the dominance of an attack/defence over the duration of a game' then surely it does have a relation to the outcome. We all know you can have one shot on target and win a game, but you won't win a Title doing that. Look at the accompanying table; does look fairly like the PL table. There are teams that defy the logic: Brentford and Fulham are outliers, the former because of their excellence at set pieces, the latter have, IMO, been quite lucky and are getting found out.

Agree Xg is no more than guide but it has relevance.

Paulie Gualtieri · Apr 6, 2023

Jimmy Grimble said:
I can’t be the only one thinking we’ve got the hardest run-in there?

Liverpool and Villa are my main worry with their run ins.

We would have to be exceptional to get top 4, can’t see it but next two league games are key

Paulie Gualtieri · Apr 6, 2023

ConfusedGloryHunter said:
That is on the old time table. We are on the De Zerbi schedule now. Top 4 this season. Title challenge next. The quadruple 24/25 season.

Don’t forget the charity shield

Paulie Gualtieri · Apr 6, 2023

Apparently Real Madrid away is only 5 loyalty points

Sid and the Sharknados · Apr 6, 2023

Paulie Gualtieri said:
Apparently Real Madrid away is only 5 loyalty points

To be fair, if you're relying on the trains I can imagine it being much easier to get to Madrid than, for example, Middlesbrough.

dazzer6666 · Apr 6, 2023

Sid and the Sharknados said:
To be fair, if you're relying on the trains I can imagine it being much easier to get to Madrid than, for example, Middlesbrough.

Bloody sight nicer place to visit as well.

Sid and the Sharknados · Apr 6, 2023

dazzer6666 said:
Bloody sight nicer place to visit as well.

I suspect the parmos are subpar though.

dazzer6666 · Apr 6, 2023

Sid and the Sharknados said:
I suspect the parmos are subpar though.

Counterbalanced by slightly fewer spotty, pasty-faced, jobseeker-allowance scrounging wankers looking for a fight though :laugh:

Sid and the Sharknados · Apr 6, 2023

dazzer6666 said:
Counterbalanced by slightly fewer spotty, pasty-faced, jobseeker-allowance scrounging wankers looking for a fight though

Why do you assume I won't be there?

dazzer6666 · Apr 6, 2023

Sid and the Sharknados said:
Why do you assume I won't be there?

Fewer, not none

Sid and the Sharknados · Apr 6, 2023

dazzer6666 said:
Fewer, not none

Now that we're talking about this, I wonder if I could manipulate it to be able to expense my travel to a European game?
If only we'd played Rhyl or King's Lynn recently, I'd be quids in.

Mt.Fuji · Apr 8, 2023

I do understand Brighton playing in Europa League is a very big event for the people who have been Brighton fans for many years, but I'd say there surely is a very big difference between Champions League and Europa League. Especially football fans outside Europe, they watch UEFA Champions League but not Europa League much. I guess 67 points are required for top 4 finish = next season's Champions League. Currently 46 points with11 games left, so 7 wins out of 11 games required and it might sound difficult but if Brighton win tonight, it will become 6 wins out of 10 games and it sounds a lot easier (than 7 wins out of 11 games)

Stat Brother · Apr 8, 2023

JOLovegrove said:
I am surprised people think it is that ridiculous. Look who is above and around us:

- Arsenal & City: Yeah, I don't think we will be catching them.
- Newcastle: Looking great, but as they proved against Wednesday, don't have too much depth. Could easily go on a run of struggling to score I think. Do look decent though.
- Man United: In form, but as someone said, could implode. Maybe that factor has gone now Ronaldo has left.
- Spurs & Liverpool: Both seem to be incredibly inconsistent. Both easily go on runs where they just can't win games. Liverpool a shadow of their former selves, and Spurs relying on Kane.
- Fulham & Brentford: If both of them are up there, there is no reason we can't be. I am biased, but I would say player for player, we have a better squad then these 2 teams.
- Chelsea: Doesn't look like it is getting any better under Potter. May just be one of those seasons for them.

I am not saying it is going to happen, and I really don't think it will, but we are capable of beating any team. Hit some rich form, beat the teams above us, and we are well in the mix. It's also so tight up there, it isn't like there is a top 4 like yester year and then the other 16.

Or am I just being to optimistic?

Nothing has changed in the 3 months since you wrote that.

Begging the question:-

"Why did we bother with the last 3 months?"

Nobby · Apr 8, 2023

croydon seagull said:
Don't get me wrong I'd enjoy the ride but I think it's a little naive to think we wouldn't be in for a rude awakening in the CL and I'm not sure they'd be plenty of teams worse than us in the group stages. Even the europa league is packed full of huge clubs in the latter stages and 'smaller' teams that perform to a high level in the early stages.

We’re up there now
It’s a bit like when people said we weren’t ready for the Premier League or weren’t ready for the Top 10.
Well now we’re in the top 25 clubs in the whole of Europe. That’s just a fact!
There’s a heck of a lot of dross in the Champions League and the Europa League is full of clubs who would struggle to get out of League 1. And the Conference League? Have you even heard of more than 50% of the clubs in that. I haven’t.
If we made the Champions League, we would give a good account of ourselves with these players, maybe not so much if we lose the best of them in the close season perhaps.

rogersix · Apr 8, 2023

Stat Brother said:
Nothing has changed in the 3 months since you wrote that.

Begging the question:-

"Why did we bother with the last 3 months?"

all of time is 3 month sections, all connected together

JOLovegrove · Apr 8, 2023

Stat Brother said:
Nothing has changed in the 3 months since you wrote that.

Begging the question:-

"Why did we bother with the last 3 months?"

I think this is a compliment...

I'd argue the only difference is Fulham have fallen off and been replaced with Villa.

Poyningsgull · May 8, 2023

Now 12-1.
Spurs 500-1

Poyningsgull · Nov 24, 2024

6-1 with oddschecker.
Seems a bit skimpy but what a season this could be.

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[Albion] Top 4 finish

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