[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

Eric the meek · Nov 17, 2024

raymondo said:
Could well be because of the combination of the incessant and deadly missile and drone strikes, as well as the N Koreans. At least now Ukraine has a chance to hit training and other military camps in Kursk - hopefully substantially denting morale and effectiveness of the Russian counterattacks.
I wonder who gets involved in the discussions with Biden . Is it likely he involves/ informs Trump increasingly as Jan 20th approaches. I have little idea how the US handover works in practice.

Aim high. This is now a very real, existential war. It will likely get much more brutal.

I believe that, from Kursk, Moscow is within range. I could be wrong.

peterward · Nov 17, 2024

Eric the meek said:
Sometimes, you can look back (with the benefit of hindsight), and conclude that, yes, that was a turning point.

With the passage of time, we may look back at today, a day on which Russia unleashed a brutal multiple missile and drone attack on civilian targets in Ukraine, raising a finger at the prospect of peace talks, and it finally persuaded Biden to do this.

It might be that today was a strategic mistake by Putin.

Because Putin isnt motivated by territory only the total destruction/full subjugation of Ukraine. This will never end with a lasting treaty that Russia honours.

It will only end if Putins wins and crushes Ukraine, with all the further security threats that poses, or if Ukraine defeats Russia which ushers in the end of Putin and a new government.

I cannot see Ukraine ever having the firepower or ability to fight the Russians out of Ukraine?

Russian collapse can only come from either the Russian economy imploding, which is in process but not there yet, or secondly via enough internal heat from pissed off Russians at what Putin has brought on them. (who are already struggling financially).

So todays announcement is huge, and Ukraine really needs to let the Russians feel it, especially in Moscow which is Putins power base. Trump has just proved how you divide an angry society against its leadership. Ukraine needs to do the same and unleash hell on the energy infrastructure that Russians feel.
They will turn on Putin.

peterward · Nov 17, 2024

raymondo · Nov 17, 2024

Well done Senators... I see Musk hasn't actually denied the contacts. Not every US politician is just going to roll over in Musk's presence.
BBC News - Senators call for probe into Musk's alleged contact with Russia

Democratic Senators call for probe into Musk's alleged contact with Putin

Musk’s reported relations with Russia “pose serious questions” about US national security, the Democratic senators argue.

www.bbc.com

peterward · Nov 17, 2024

I feel similar to @Eric the meek

I think Putin overplayed his hand yesterday. And this long range strike permission today is massive for Ukraine. Far more consequential than what Putin did yesterday and probably thought he'd get little push back for.

Its like a shot of adrenalin straight in the heart.

Slava Ukraini!

raymondo · Nov 17, 2024

It feels like:
- hit Russian military camps and supply lines in Kursk, with missiles, at will

- precise hits on energy infrastructure? Volgograd? Sochi? Moscow?? not sure the US would be allowing their missiles for that yet

perhaps more likely still Ukraine has to use it's drones

Eric the meek · Nov 17, 2024

Looking at usual data source - too much to post.

Georgia
Warsaw
Reuters: ATACMS strikes planned in the coming days

Seagull58 · Nov 17, 2024

St Leonards Seagull said:
I have a horrible feeling he will make a bid for the presidency once Trump is gone.

He is not US-born so cannot become President unless the constitution is changed. He's also an illegal immigrant, having arrived on a student visa.

Eric the meek · Nov 17, 2024

This one:

Flounce · Nov 17, 2024

Worrying times but it might shorten the end result, whatever that may be.

Triggaaar · Nov 17, 2024

peterward said:
Ukraine needs to do the same and unleash hell on the energy infrastructure that Russians feel.

I don't think they can do that, that would be a war crime. I know that's difficult to remember given that Russia do it on a daily basis.

peterward · Nov 17, 2024

Triggaaar said:
I don't think they can do that, that would be a war crime. I know that's difficult to remember given that Russia do it on a daily basis.

Yeah I know, but............

GT49er · Nov 17, 2024

Seagull58 said:
He us not US-born so cannot become President unless the constitution is changed. He's also an illegal immigrant, having arrived on a student visa.

............and Trump respects the constitution? And Trump hasn't stocked the supreme court with stooges? And Trump hasn't got a majority in both houses? And Trump has respect for anything Trump doesn't like? And Musk hasn't bought himself into Trump world?

How's the tooth fairy these days? - haven't seen her for a while.

GT49er · Nov 17, 2024

Triggaaar said:
I don't think they can do that, that would be a war crime. I know that's difficult to remember given that Russia do it on a daily basis.

It would be an act of war, not a war crime; there's a difference. Destroying the Third Reich - by whatever means - was a (legitimate) act of war, for instance, and not a war crime.

Seagull58 · Nov 17, 2024

GT49er said:
............and Trump respects the constitution? And Trump hasn't stocked the supreme court with stooges? And Trump hasn't got a majority in both houses? And Trump has respect for anything Trump doesn't like? And Musk hasn't bought himself into Trump world?

How's the tooth fairy these days? - haven't seen her for a while.

I hear what you say but constitutional changes (and many others) require at least 60 senators to vote for them, not a simple majority of 51. The possibility of 60 senators voting to amend the constitution in that way is close to zero.
It's also quite possible that the Dems will gain control of the Senate and/or the House in the mid-term elections in 2026.

GT49er · Nov 17, 2024

Seagull58 said:
I hear what you say but constitutional changes (and many others) require at least 60 senators to vote for them, not a simple majority of 51. The possibility of 60 senators voting to amend the constitution in that way is close to zero.
It's also quite possible that the Dems will gain control of the Senate and/or the House in the mid-term elections in 2026.

2026 is a long way away in making permanent damage terms. Do you seriously under-estimate Trump's malice and ability to make hay while the sun shines (in his view of the world of Trump, as it should be)?

A1X · Nov 17, 2024

seagullwedgee said:
I’m convinced Biden would not have done this had Kamala Harris won the presidential election for the Democrats.

Well, no…because we could be pretty confident that the current US position on Ukraine would hold out beyond January and it could be done whenever the time was right. All that changed two weeks ago.

Seagull58 · Nov 17, 2024

GT49er said:
2026 is a long way away in making permanent damage terms. Do you seriously under-estimate Trump's malice and ability to make hay while the sun shines (in his view of the world of Trump, as it should be)?

I don't underestimate his malice. His ability remains to be seen. The first big test will be how many of his mad picks for leadership positions will get Congressional approval.

GT49er · Nov 17, 2024

Seagull58 said:
I don't underestimate his malice. His ability remains to be seen.

Unfortunately, yes.

Eric the meek · Nov 17, 2024

Le Figaro says France and UK have authorised Scalp and Stormshadow missiles on Russian targets.

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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

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