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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,037
This chart plots the rouble against the US$ for the last 3 months. In that period the rouble has devalued by 15%, on the back of at least 2 years of prior substantial devaluations. Marked with the red arrows, you can see how over time, the interventions of the Russian central bank have become progressively less effective at arresting the devaluation.View attachment 192497

That suggests they are very close to the point where they just don’t have enough, or anything, left to prevent further immediate substantial devaluation.
This is excellent.

Thank you for taking the time and trouble to put this together. This is just the kind of thing this thread could do with, as there is obviously a dearth of reliable economic data coming out of Russia. (And if there were, we wouldn't know what to do with it anyway).
 








A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,492
Deepest, darkest Sussex
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,037
What we need now is love sweet love for Russian investors to sell their rubles tomorrow as soon as the market opens, and create an unstoppable crash.
 








Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,037
Sometimes, you can look back (with the benefit of hindsight), and conclude that, yes, that was a turning point.

With the passage of time, we may look back at today, a day on which Russia unleashed a brutal multiple missile and drone attack on civilian targets in Ukraine, raising a finger at the prospect of peace talks, and it finally persuaded Biden to do this.

It might be that today was a strategic mistake by Putin.
 




Munchkin

Well-known member
Jul 12, 2005
2,422
Littlehampton
Sometimes, you can look back (with the benefit of hindsight), and conclude that, yes, that was a turning point.

With the passage of time, we may look back at today, a day on which Russia unleashed a brutal multiple missile and drone attack on civilian targets in Ukraine, raising a finger at the prospect of peace talks, and it finally persuaded Biden to do this.

It might be that today was a strategic mistake by Putin.
Or the day that triggered WW3. Scary times.
 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,290
Wiltshire
Brilliant news.
 








A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,492
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Or the day that triggered WW3. Scary times.
I’m pretty certain the Biden administration wouldn’t have green-lit it without knowing exactly how Moscow will react. I’ve heard of leaving a scorched earth policy for an incoming administration but not that literally.
 






raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
7,290
Wiltshire
Sometimes, you can look back (with the benefit of hindsight), and conclude that, yes, that was a turning point.

With the passage of time, we may look back at today, a day on which Russia unleashed a brutal multiple missile and drone attack on civilian targets in Ukraine, raising a finger at the prospect of peace talks, and it finally persuaded Biden to do this.

It might be that today was a strategic mistake by Putin.
Could well be because of the combination of the incessant and deadly missile and drone strikes, as well as the N Koreans. At least now Ukraine has a chance to hit training and other military camps in Kursk - hopefully substantially denting morale and effectiveness of the Russian counterattacks.
I wonder who gets involved in the discussions with Biden 🤔. Is it likely he involves/ informs Trump increasingly as Jan 20th approaches. I have little idea how the US handover works in practice.
 








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