[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Triggaaar said:

If you haven't yet, but wanted to take the generous odds on Kamala winning, you're too late.

Come on America, don't flush your country down the toilet

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Latest Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

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Harris zeroes in on Michigan as Trump rehashes voter fraud claims

Harris travels to Michigan, while Trump is in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia for rallies.

www.aljazeera.com

Zeberdi said:

Do we need another thread?

Perfectly good thread already running on the election with a poll too.

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Triggaaar said:

It's shifted more than a little.

Trump was ahead against Biden, then against Kamala it's been nip and tuck either way until suddenly, for no apparent reason, Trump became a really strong favourite. There was nothing to point to that change - why had people not backed him when he was odds against, but then they decide to back him when he was a strong favourite? There hadn't been a debate or anything in his favour, there hadn't been a change in the polls, he just suddenly became a really strong favourite.

The most obvious answer is that people like Musk chucked a load of money on him, in order to influence people's voting decision. But now the odds are returning towards even as people take advantage of the generous odds available for Kamala.

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dwayne said:

Makes no sense to me. People are more likely to vote for the perceived winner? Is that even a thing?

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Bozza said:

Of equal importance - what's the sleep/awake strategy of those wanting to follow it closely?

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Triggaaar said:

Yes. If those who are undecided hear that one of the candidates is suddenly well ahead and 'everyone' is backing them, they can think 'well I guess if everyone else thinks they're the right person, they probably are'. That's why the Trump claims he has big crowds and claims the polls say he's winning, because Americans like to vote for winners.

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KZNSeagull said:

I would imagine that there has been a hell of a lot of Scalping (people taking advantage of very small moves in the market) happening on the betting exchanges, which happens on markets that are traded heavily. Trumps odds have shifted 3 or 4 points today for no apparent reason. £150m has been traded on Betfair exchange alone.

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Change at Barnham said:

Shifted in which direction?

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Zeberdi said:

That has been the issue with the betting - I posted a link a few days ago that showed betting can influence outcome for the reason you say.

Millions $$ were bet on Trump from outside the USA which may well have skewed the odds and given voters the impression Trump was winning.

I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?

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aftershavedave said:

earliest exit polls I believe are around 4am, so that's my strategy

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Zeberdi said:

I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?

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Change at Barnham said:

Shifted in which direction?

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Zeberdi said:

‘All I want is a good mic’ -

Trumps performs air oral sex on the mic stand, says ‘damn’, ‘cr*p’ and ‘a*rse’, rips mic off podium and asks audience if they want to see him ‘knock the hell out of people backstage’




So much rage and anger - he drags the whole democratic process of electing the next POTUS into the gutter - November 5 will not be the end of the process to decide who will regain the White House, it will go on until the electoral votes are cast on 17 December and certified on January 6. In the meantime, Trump‘s sole aim is to disrupt and interfere with the process like a far worse adult version of a child who acts out in class because he is bored, has learning difficulties and is bedded in to attention-seeking, histrionic behaviour. The more Harris looks like winning, the worse his behaviour will become.

How ever did this deeply, deeply flawed character become the favourite for 50% of America to have as their President?

It’s unreal.

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dwayne said:

Maybe but I suspect a winner won't be announced this week. It's gonna be a circus

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