[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

raymondo · Oct 17, 2024

Re Ukraine probably, possibly, maybe being invited to join NATO one day...the cynic (err .. the realist) in me doesn't believe that alone will guarantee their future safety.
In the 1994 Budapest meeting, the US, UK, and Russian Federation (

to the last one) promised safety and protection for Ukraine if they gave their nuclear weapons back to Russia.
That went well

.

NATO has only been tested (IIRC) when the US/New York suffered the terrorist attacks - and the allies responded.
Would the US REALLY respond as well...if Trump or his ilk were in control?

Maybe direct military intervention in Ukraine is more likely if there are agreements within Europe alone e g with Poland, Baltics, UK, Finland etc

amexer · Oct 17, 2024

No Consideration should be given to Ukraine joining Nato while the war is on

raymondo · Oct 17, 2024

amexer said:
No Consideration should be given to Ukraine joining Nato while the war is on

I don't think it will be.

A1X · Oct 17, 2024

amexer said:
No Consideration should be given to Ukraine joining Nato while the war is on

It can’t be. The rules of NATO state that member nations joining cannot have pre-existing border disputes. Which is perfectly reasonable, NATO wouldn’t want (e.g.) Kosovo joining and immediately invoking Article 5 against Serbia.

And the Ukraine war can definitely be described as one hell of a border dispute. Even post-2014 Ukraine could not have joined NATO while also laying claim to Crimea. Putin is very aware of this, hence his actions in Georgia and Moldova to provoke the same thing.

Binney on acid · Oct 17, 2024

amexer said:
No Consideration should be given to Ukraine joining Nato while the war is on

There is no war. It's a special military operation.

peterward · Oct 17, 2024

Shropshire Seagull · Oct 17, 2024

The Clamp said:
Too much reacting to what the enemy is doing.

They need to get on the offensive. Take the fight to them.

On this very note, what's the current status on the Ukrainian incursion into Russia that must have been a couple of months back?
Are the Ukrainians still in Russia holding the ground they made, or did they get pushed back?
I've lost track of where this Ukrainian "special operation" has got to.

Thanks

Commander · Oct 17, 2024

Shropshire Seagull said:
On this very note, what's the current status on the Ukrainian incursion into Russia that must have been a couple of months back?
Are the Ukrainians still in Russia hold the ground they made, or did they get pushed back?
I've lost track of where this Ukrainian "special operation" has got to.

Thanks

I was thinking this earlier. It seems to have gone a bit quiet.

sparkie · Oct 17, 2024

Shropshire Seagull said:
On this very note, what's the current status on the Ukrainian incursion into Russia that must have been a couple of months back?
Are the Ukrainians still in Russia holding the ground they made, or did they get pushed back?
I've lost track of where this Ukrainian "special operation" has got to.

Thanks

The Ukrainians are still there. The latest is that North Koreans are coming over to attack the Ukrainians in Russia.

Eric the meek · Oct 17, 2024

raymondo said:
Georgia unlikely with the Russian occupation/ neighborhood. Moldova, yes could be.
If Trump gets in of course all the puzzle pieces could get thrown up in the air.
Putin won't want Moldova in so Trump wouldn't allow it.
If Moldova were invited then Russia will cause immense trouble in Transnistria.

The more I think about it, maybe Rutte means the Vatican as 33

I was hoping NATO were planning for the future and considering inviting Kaliningrad or Belarus into the fold.
It would be worth it just for the vodka frenzy it would cause in the Kremlin and on RT.

But perhaps member 33 doesn't really exist. Perhaps Rutte has noticed that the Russian elite are a bit excitable these days.
So why not raise a few barrage balloons for them to waste their energy on?

crookie · Oct 17, 2024

Shropshire Seagull said:
On this very note, what's the current status on the Ukrainian incursion into Russia that must have been a couple of months back?
Are the Ukrainians still in Russia holding the ground they made, or did they get pushed back?
I've lost track of where this Ukrainian "special operation" has got to.

Thanks

Read something a couple of days ago suggesting Russia has won back a big chunk of that. I'll try and dig it out

raymondo · Oct 17, 2024

Shropshire Seagull said:
On this very note, what's the current status on the Ukrainian incursion into Russia that must have been a couple of months back?
Are the Ukrainians still in Russia holding the ground they made, or did they get pushed back?
I've lost track of where this Ukrainian "special operation" has got to.

Thanks

Ukraine expanded their incursion at first but have now lost a little of the gained ground. The russians have moved more troops and artillery there and, as usual, they have more of those things.
As usual, Ukraine picks off many Russian troops and vehicles as they attack, but more keep coming.

Ukraine is building some defensive lines, based around natural features like rivers and 'strings' of villages. So, it looks like Ukraine is planning to defend some gains for the Winter.

Denys Davydov provides a detailed daily update that includes a lot of info on Kursk - I'll post the latest separately.

raymondo · Oct 17, 2024

Shropshire Seagull said:
On this very note, what's the current status on the Ukrainian incursion into Russia that must have been a couple of months back?
Are the Ukrainians still in Russia holding the ground they made, or did they get pushed back?
I've lost track of where this Ukrainian "special operation" has got to.

Thanks

raymondo · Oct 17, 2024

Eric the meek said:
I was hoping NATO were planning for the future and considering inviting Kaliningrad or Belarus into the fold.
It would be worth it just for the vodka frenzy it would cause in the Kremlin and on RT.

But perhaps member 33 doesn't really exist. Perhaps Rutte has noticed that the Russian elite are a bit excitable these days.
So why not raise a few barrage balloons for them to waste their energy on?

Kaliningrad and Belarus made me chuckle

. Perhaps Rutte will make more propaganda/ political comments than Stoltenberg did - that's not a criticism of either.

Doug-ees-evil · Oct 17, 2024

Even thicko Trump can hopefully grasp this simple choice...

Zelensky spoke to Trump and said:
"There are two choices. Or Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, or we should have some kind of alliance, and apart from NATO we do not know any functioning alliances today. We want to choose NATO, not nuclear weapons."

Triggaaar · Oct 17, 2024

sparkie said:
The Ukrainians are still there. The latest is that North Koreans are coming over to attack the Ukrainians in Russia.

They are going to love a Russian winter

vegster · Oct 17, 2024

Triggaaar said:
They are going to love a Russian winter

Poor sods, barely an ounce of fat on a North Korean, one excluded, of course. This is a sad logical step, Russia needs the expendable manpower and Kim Jon Un can get a few people off his books so the harvest goes further.

US Seagull · Oct 18, 2024

Bob Woodward reports that the US had credible intelligence that Russia was preparing to use tactical nukes in Ukraine in 2022. U.S. Defense Secretary Austin warned them not to in no uncertain terms.

Mellotron · Oct 18, 2024

raymondo said:
And Zelenskiy cares about his people, really cares - this is an immense additional daily strain that Putin certainly doesn't have.
The only part of his earlier acting/comedy career that helped prepare Zelenskiy for this role (IMO) was his ability to communicate and his (and his colleagues) ability to frame certain early videos/announcements well (and sincerely).
No training in politics, military, international relations... He's summoned it all from within. A true leader.

Sea Cider said:
I've aged well!
Especially taking his background into account, to deal with this appalling war with such an incredible combination of dignity, passion, ability and energy is unbelievable. I can't begin to imagine the strain he must have been and continue to be under every minute of every day.
I hope with all my heart that Ukraine prevail

jcdenton08 said:
Has served his country with honour, passion and pride. Such a remarkable man under extreme pressure.

Agreed on all. I have absolutely no idea how he is able to sleep.

Literally has the weight of an entire nation on his shoulders, and for such a long time.

peterward · Oct 18, 2024

Interesting, and reasonably strongly worded article from the European Centre of Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Shameless — North Korean Troops Join Putin’s War on Ukraine

Putin's desperation-driven descent into the arms of North Korea’s dictator begs the question of how low he will go.

cepa.org

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