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[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)



















beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,293
Think that sums up all our worst fears.
it sums up the speculation. the ceasefire proposed makes no reference at all to Ukraine concessions up front (read here), and is not a peace agreement. one is able to commence with no agreement on outcome other than stop the shooting. too many seem happy to roll up possible peace outcomes as pre-requisite for a ceasefire. if Russia dont accept a ceasefire we know where everyone stands: they wont accept a peace either and we cant expect Ukraine to capitulate, and Trump cant continue with any pretences.
 






SouthSaxon

Stand or fall
NSC Patron
Jan 25, 2025
424
it sums up the speculation. the ceasefire proposed makes no reference at all to Ukraine concessions up front (read here), and is not a peace agreement. one is able to commence with no agreement on outcome other than stop the shooting. too many seem happy to roll up possible peace outcomes as pre-requisite for a ceasefire. if Russia dont accept a ceasefire we know where everyone stands: they wont accept a peace either and we cant expect Ukraine to capitulate, and Trump cant continue with any pretences.
Quite. A ceasefire means both sides…cease firing. That’s it. It creates a little breathing room in which actual peace talks might begin.

So far, it doesn’t seem as though the Russians are interested.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,846
Wiltshire


I read a couple of days back too, that Trump administration were shocked at the level of international pushback and condemnation, you'd assume the talk of 5 eyes to 4 eyes would've been seen by them too.

Real politik in action and restoring aid and Intel was the least damaging strategic option.

Good solid post from Jim Hines.
I can't understand why the 'Trump administration were shocked at the level of international pushback and condemnation ...' in fact I'm not sure I believe that 'shock'. I thought the whole idea from the US was to 'break things' and shake Europe out of it's torpor, so I don't believe they were really shocked - maybe a little at the level.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,796
it sums up the speculation. the ceasefire proposed makes no reference at all to Ukraine concessions up front (read here), and is not a peace agreement. one is able to commence with no agreement on outcome other than stop the shooting. too many seem happy to roll up possible peace outcomes as pre-requisite for a ceasefire. if Russia dont accept a ceasefire we know where everyone stands: they wont accept a peace either and we cant expect Ukraine to capitulate, and Trump cant continue with any pretences.
Horse facce Lavrov keeps parotting that they need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict (then throwing out the BS that its about NATO or this total fantasy about restrictions on people being able to speak Russian language or Russian speakers that never happened) When the elephant in the room is always unmentioned. It is only Russian imperialism and its delusions of empire that are the root cause.

Interesting bit of fact about the Russian jutifications based on Ukraine having NATO on their borders (even though Finland has already done just that)

 




raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,846
Wiltshire
Is there any point in continuing with this peace process?

Doesn't feel like it - we'll see. Trump should be up in arms at Russia's intransigence (if it plays out) ...hmmm.
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,846
Wiltshire
Horse facce Lavrov keeps parotting that they need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict (then throwing out the BS that its about NATO or this total fantasy about restrictions on people being able to speak Russian language or Russian speakers that never happened) When the elephant in the room is always unmentioned. It is only Russian imperialism and its delusions of empire that are the root cause.

Interesting bit of fact about the Russian jutifications based on Ukraine having NATO on their borders (even though Finland has already done just that)


Every day that Lavrov is alive is a sad day for me and many others.
 


marlowe

Well-known member
Dec 13, 2015
4,558
I think you're clutching at straws there. If he was in any way on Ukraine's side, he wouldn't have stopped the intelligence sharing in the first place (he'd have been told of the consequences, and could have just warned of it).
That's the difference between his handling of Ukraine compared to his handling of Russia. With Ukraine he actually puts his warnings into effect. With Russia they merely remain as warnings.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,270
That's the difference between his handling of Ukraine compared to his handling of Russia. With Ukraine he actually puts his warnings into effect. With Russia they merely remain as warnings.
So far.

But he dealt with Ukraine first. So he hardballed Ukraine, Russia loved it, and so 'Russia was easier to deal with'.

But now that Zelensky has acquiesced, and agreed to a ceasefire, the focus is now on Russia.
Thankfully, Russia has come out and shown its true colours.....
 


raymondo

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2017
8,846
Wiltshire
Just breaking on FT. Russia says no to temporary ceasefire. Adds its demands.

Which I think is kind of good?

Pressure moved from Ukraine to Putin and now onto Trump to reveal his true colours. (FT unpaywalled at bottom)






Yes I think it's kind of good...no tricky games where Russia says yes to an immediate ceasefire and then breaks it every day with false flags etc.
 


peterward

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 11, 2009
12,796
So far.

But he dealt with Ukraine first. So he hardballed Ukraine, Russia loved it, and so 'Russia was easier to deal with'.

But now that Zelensky has acquiesced, and agreed to a ceasefire, the focus is now on Russia.
Thankfully, Russia has come out and shown its true colours.....
We'll see if this is just an opening gambit by Russia or they really rejected it.

I really hope they have rejected for now, as not only does that put Pressure on Trump to reveal his true colours (and his secretaries like Rubio who have seen a reasonable Ukraine).

It also goes a long way to justifying Zelenskyy in what was claimed as his "disrespectful" role in the oval office spat..... namely he dared to stay to Vance.... what diplomacy are you talking about, Putin cannot be trusted etc..... all while Trump was insisting Putin wanted peace, they were friends etc and attacking Zelenskyy lack of cards.

This just adds weight to everything Zelenskyy said as being true and makes Trump look even more of an idiot.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
8,270
Yes I think it's kind of good...no tricky games where Russia says yes to an immediate ceasefire and then breaks it every day with false flags etc.
Yes, I'm with you both. As you say, it's - kind of good - but in a not all that good way.

But it's good in that it will take time to get Russia to get to anywhere near where a ceasefire would be acceptable for Ukraine.
So that gives Russia time to lose more troops, kit and reserves, and come nearer economic collapse (if indeed it is that near).
 


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