Trump

[spence]

Not this time Spence, dream on and delude yourself if you must mate.......

against the weakest democratic nominee in ages, a fella whose half a sandwich short of a picnic up top and looks like he could keel over at any moment.

Even with attempts at vote rigging, deliberately slowing down and under funding the US postal service, trying to stop voters in demographics he knows will vote against him.

Putting pro trump yes men into official state election dispute resolution positions.

Tipping the supreme court in his favour.

Trying to get his rag tag bunch of rednecks and white supremacists to "monitor" (a.k.a intimidate) the voting public.

He is still going to get destroyed this time.

4 years ago he was the outsider who was going to tear everything down, "drain the swamp" and bring on the good times. All he did was tear everything down and hes done nothing other than bullshit, shout his mouth off on twitter and preside over a totally shambolic 4 years of mismanagement, the loss of American influence in the middle east and globally, arse licking Putin as he weakens NATO and with Covid 19 being his coup de grâce of failure.

There are still die hard redneck Fox news cultists, but he's lost the swing voters and he will lose the office he is totally unfit to hold.

You watch fake media. I'm telling you it's going to be a humiliating defeat for Biden. Pull yourself away from CNN,BBC, Washington Post, New York Times etc.

 

[Bozza]

He is still going to get destroyed this time.

Let's hope so, but feels like a coin toss right now.

Yes, Biden is the favourite on the books, but his odds have drifted and 3/5 doesn't feel like "destroying it" territory. If there's any kind of "shy Trump" factor that's similar to the "shy Tory" factor over here, it's going to be tight.

 

[BadFish]

You watch fake media. I'm telling you it's going to be a humiliating defeat for Biden. Pull yourself away from CNN,BBC, Washington Post, New York Times etc.

Well your predictions about us going down last season were sound so . . .

I don't claim to know who is going to win but your 'fake news' argument is far less compelling than others I have read on here.

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[peterward]

You watch fake media. I'm telling you it's going to be a humiliating defeat for Biden. Pull yourself away from CNN,BBC, Washington Post, New York Times etc.

I don't watch any of those in general and you can tell me whatever you like sweetheart

Its just nonsense....... fake news from pro democrat media? use your bonce fella, if it were really fake, they wouldnt put Biden so far ahead..... theyd put Biden behind or level if it were fake, theyd play it down to make sure more dems come out and vote....... dems may not bother if they think Biden will run away with it anyway, so why on earth would they lie, its totally illogical.

The whole fake news, as with much of what Trump says and does is trying to reflect his own traits onto others, he bullshits as he accuses others of being bullshitters.

The only place Donald is going after November the 3rd, is on his private jet out of the US to try and avoid jail.

 

[BadFish]

Let's hope so, but feels like a coin toss right now.

Yes, Biden is the favourite on the books, but his odds have drifted and 3/5 doesn't feel like "destroying it" territory. If there's any kind of "shy Trump" factor that's similar to the "shy Tory" factor over here, it's going to be tight.

This.

I think it will be tight

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[spence]

This.

I think it will be tight

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It won't be close

 

[BadFish]

It won't be close

A compelling analysis, thanks.

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[peterward]

It won't be close

You really believe in a Trump landslide?

You can get 13/8.

Great odds for a dead cert in a 2 horse race!

 

[dingodan]

Let's hope so, but feels like a coin toss right now.

Yes, Biden is the favourite on the books, but his odds have drifted and 3/5 doesn't feel like "destroying it" territory. If there's any kind of "shy Trump" factor that's similar to the "shy Tory" factor over here, it's going to be tight.

Calling people who support Trump racists, bigots, sexists etc was never going to win them over, it just makes them keep their support to themselves until election day.

I've seen people on the left treat Trump supports in ways which are unbelievable, screaming at them, attacking them, often just for wearing the wrong t-shirt or hat, or just for going out and peacefully campaigning for their candidate.

For all the sh*t the right gets, I've never seen people get that kind of treatment for wearing a t-shirt or campaigning for a Democratic candidate.

It's really odd to me, because people on the right get accused, pretty frequently, of being facists and nazis, yet the behavior of people on the left often involves politically motivated violence & aggression in ways unmatched on the right.

I genuinely wish both sides would hear each other out, talk about their differences of opinion, and maintain a degree of respect for people with opposing views. It isn't that way, and it's, by a large margin, mostly people on the left who seem unwilling or unable to accept opposing views. Whatever the faults of some people on the right, I'd personally rather not see power in the hands of people who behave like that.

 

[BadFish]

Calling people who support Trump racists, bigots, sexists etc was never going to win them over, it just makes them keep their support to themselves until election day.

I've seen people on the left treat Trump supports in ways which are unbelievable, screaming at them, attacking them, often just for wearing the wrong t-shirt or hat, or just for going out and peacefully campaigning for their candidate.

For all the sh*t the right gets, I've never seen people get that kind of treatment for wearing a t-shirt or campaigning for a Democratic candidate.

It's really odd to me, because people on the right get accused, pretty frequently, of being facists and nazis, yet the behavior of people on the left often involves politically motivated violence & aggression in ways unmatched on the right.

I genuinely wish both sides would hear each other out, talk about their differences of opinion, and maintain a degree of respect for people with opposing views. It isn't that way, and it's, by a large margin, mostly people on the left who seem unwilling or unable to accept opposing views. Whatever the faults of some people on the right, I'd personally rather not see power in the hands of people who behave like that.

I don't think this is a left thing. It is more a symptom of the polarised situation we find ourselves in. Those people are given too much air time and focus. I think that we are all to blame culturally as we are not interested in reasoned and intelligent debate. We much prefer videos of people hurling abuse and calling each other names

It's a shame really

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[peterward]

Calling people who support Trump racists, bigots, sexists etc was never going to win them over, it just makes them keep their support to themselves until election day.

I've seen people on the left treat Trump supports in ways which are unbelievable, screaming at them, attacking them, often just for wearing the wrong t-shirt or hat, or just for going out and peacefully campaigning for their candidate.

For all the sh*t the right gets, I've never seen people get that kind of treatment for wearing a t-shirt or campaigning for a Democratic candidate.

It's really odd to me, because people on the right get accused, pretty frequently, of being facists and nazis, yet the behavior of people on the left often involves politically motivated violence & aggression in ways unmatched on the right.

I genuinely wish both sides would hear each other out, talk about their differences of opinion, and maintain a degree of respect for people with opposing views. It isn't that way, and it's, by a large margin, mostly people on the left who seem unwilling or unable to accept opposing views. Whatever the faults of some people on the right, I'd personally rather not see power in the hands of people who behave like that.

It was the same here with Corbyns hate fuelled mob.

But seriously, ask yourself this honestly. How many new voters is Trump going to get.

Those that voted democrat or independent in 2016 who now after 4 years of Trump, like what they see, think they got it wrong and have become supporters?

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by over 3 million, he just scraped the win on the electoral college.

Do people really believe he's added non supporters from 2016 to his side after this past 4 years?

Of course he has his die hards, but the many swing voters willing to give him a go in 2016 won't stay with him. He'd need them all, to just keep his 2016 marginal win majority.

In 2016 he won white woman by 47% to Clinton's 45%. (And lost women of colour) This time Biden is up over 20% in the white woman demographic.

I just don't see where a trump win comes from, except by fraud.

 

[e77]

Apparently a landslide is a ten percent win. That is possible for Biden but the upper end.

If you look at the electoral college Pennsylvania and Florida are beginning to look done deals for Biden and Arizona isn't too far behind that. Trump needs to win those and more to get him over the 270 electoral college votes and stay in the White House. That said on a very good night Biden wins Texas but anything beyond that looks a stretch.

FiveThirtyEight - who were actually one of the few to point out Trump had a chance in 2016 - have Biden at 87% to win and Trump at 12%. Assuming a fair election Trump having a 1 in 8 chance sounds about right. The polling companies (they rate them and give them a relative weighting) have reviewed their methodolgies since 2016 and even so Biden has had much stronger polling than Clinton in 2016.

Trump winning certainly isn't impossible but I wouldn't put money on him.

 

[spence]

I don't think this is a left thing. It is more a symptom of the polarised situation we find ourselves in. Those people are given too much air time and focus. I think that we are all to blame culturally as we are not interested in reasoned and intelligent debate. We much prefer videos of people hurling abuse and calling each other names

It's a shame really

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[spence]

Apparently a landslide is a ten percent win. That is possible for Biden but the upper end.

If you look at the electoral college Pennsylvania and Florida are beginning to look done deals for Biden and Arizona isn't too far behind that. Trump needs to win those and more to get him over the 270 electoral college votes and stay in the White House. That said on a very good night Biden wins Texas but anything beyond that looks a stretch.

FiveThirtyEight - who were actually one of the few to point out Trump had a chance in 2016 - have Biden at 87% to win and Trump at 12%. Assuming a fair election Trump having a 1 in 8 chance sounds about right. The polling companies (they rate them and give them a relative weighting) have reviewed their methodolgies since 2016 and even so Biden has had much stronger polling than Clinton in 2016.

Trump winning certainly isn't impossible but I wouldn't put money on him.

Florida is Trump. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[e77]

Florida is Trump. Put your money where your mouth is.

£10 to Albion In The Community?

 

[spence]

£10 to Albion In The Community?

No charities. Paypal. £10

 

[e77]

No charities. Paypal. £10

Thanks but no thanks.

 

[KeithDublin]

No charities. Paypal. £10

I cant decide if you're the biggest idiot the world has ever seen or an absolute genius

 

[spence]

I cant decide if you're the biggest idiot the world has ever seen or an absolute genius

You are a prick. We can all throw names about.

 

[spence]

Thanks but no thanks.

Fair enough. Out of all the swing states Florida is the one i'm most confident Trump will romp home with. That is my number 1 pick