[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Sid and the Sharknados]

The vote has been split. Labour should be trouncing the feckless Tories, but they aren’t. Those Green/Lib Dem gains should be Labour home runs, but they aren’t. Tories are shipping votes, as they will at the GE, but they need to ship them all in one place - Labour.

You can mark my words, it will be a NOC outcome and a potential Lib-Lab mess unless Starmer and Labour win hearts and minds between now and the GE.

This is a troubling outcome for those wanting a fresh, strong, new government at the next GE.

There's no reason why a Lab/Lib government should be a mess.
The conservatives have had significant majorities over the last few years, all it did was put the government in hoc to the most extreme elements of the tory coalition.
If we get a Lab/Lib government or pact of any sort, we might finally get a sensible voting reform that stops us being stuck with elective dictatorships that attract under 40% of the vote for years on end.

 

[A1X]

There will be several prominent Tory MPs looking at these results somewhat nervously today. Jonathan Gullis and Jacob Rees-Mogg most notably.

 

[jcdenton08]

There's no reason why a Lab/Lib government should be a mess.
The conservatives have had significant majorities over the last few years, all it did was put the government in hoc to the most extreme elements of the tory coalition.
If we get a Lab/Lib government or pact of any sort, we might finally get a sensible voting reform that stops us being stuck with elective dictatorships that attract under 40% of the vote for years on end.

Alternatively, and most likely, we will get a parliament and cabinet completely at odds with one another and unable to reform anything whatsoever, let alone make the broad changes and policy enactments needed to turn the ship around.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Alternatively, and most likely, we will get a parliament and cabinet completely at odds with one another and unable to reform anything whatsoever, let alone make the broad changes and policy enactments needed to turn the ship around.

What's that actually based on though? It's just the same scare stories that have been put out for decades to put people off alternative systems.
We had this at school.
"There are two options, First Past The Post, which leads to Strong Governments which can get things done, or Proportional Representation, which led to the Nazis".

 

[jcdenton08]

The numbers keep getting worse and worse for Labour. I bet the Libs can’t believe what is happening. Nice to see the Tories get a well deserved shoeing though.

Massive change needed at Labour HQ.

 

[jcdenton08]

What's that actually based on though? It's just the same scare stories that have been put out for decades to put people off alternative systems.
We had this at school.
"There are two options, First Past The Post, which leads to Strong Governments which can get things done, or Proportional Representation, which led to the Nazis".

Well, off the top of my head, there is the last time I voted Lib, which was under Nick Clegg, based on his key campaign promise of freezing university fees. This lie cost me more in literal, actual money lost than any other political party has or likely ever will.

The libs, you may remember, got into bed with Tories and it was such a massive shitshow that it led to the Tories getting a huge majority and staying in power to date.

So no, this is not a good thing. It’s a very bad thing. Well done on Godwin’s Law though, that really took a huge amount of creativity to work into your point, such as it was

Are you suggesting that you want a Lab-Lib government because you actually want the Tories to sweep back in after 4 years?

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Well, off the top of my head, there is the last time I voted Lib, which was under Nick Clegg, based on his key campaign promise of freezing university fees. This lie cost me more in literal, actual money lost than any other political party has or likely ever will.

The libs, you may remember, got into bed with Tories and it was such a massive shitshow than the it led to the Tories getting a huge majority and staying in power to date.

So no, this is not a good thing. It’s a very bad thing. Well done on Godwin’s Law though, that really took a huge amount of creativity to work into your point, such as it was

Are you suggesting that you want a Lab-Lib government because you actually want the Tories to sweep back in after 4 years?

It's not Goodwin's law to cite other people referring to the Nazis.
Also, if we had a proper voting system, the conservatives would never have got that massive majority.
Assuming then that you went to university after me (I entered university in the last year of the old system), you'll have paid less money back on your loan in the meantime than I have, because of the way the repayment rates relate to income (ie, when you graduate on a relatively low salary, you pay less back than somebody on the old system, up to a given amount).
If you're older than me and have decided to pay your children's tuition fees, you're clearly just a bit mental.
I also hope you're never in a position where government policies lead to you losing your job, because that'll very quickly cost you much more money.
Edit: no, from a partisan perspective (and frankly, just not wanting a shit country) my hope is that if we have a government that actually carries out voting reform then the conservatives will never have a majority ever again.

 

[jcdenton08]

It's not Goodwin's law to cite other people referring to the Nazis.
Also, if we had a proper voting system, the conservatives would never have got that massive majority.
Assuming then that you went to university after me (I entered university in the last year of the old system), you'll have paid less money back on your loan in the meantime than I have, because of the way the repayment rates relate to income (ie, when you graduate on a relatively low salary, you pay less back than somebody on the old system, up to a given amount).
If you're older than me and have decided to pay your children's tuition fees, you're clearly just a bit mental.
I also hope you're never in a position where government policies lead to you losing your job, because that'll very quickly cost you much more money.

I answered your question accurately, fairly and, I’m sure you’ll agree, decisively. I wasn’t looking to be called mental, a Nazi or have my income audited. We’ll leave it there. Thank you for doing your best.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

I answered your question accurately, fairly and, I’m sure you’ll agree, decisively. I wasn’t looking to be called mental, a Nazi or have my income audited. We’ll leave it there. Thank you for doing your best.

OK, I'm having a nice day, I'm enjoying this conversation and not aiming to be anywhere near as confrontational about this as I'm probably coming across as, for which I'm genuinely sorry.

I do maintain that recalling my own Soc Ed lessons about different voting systems isn't a case of Godwin's Law.

To be clear, as a card carrying Labour member, I'd like the party to win a majority as much as anybody else. I don't see the idea of a coalition as being a disaster though, not least given the alternative is more of the same government that we've had for the last decade.

Generally the larger party in such deals tends to take votes off the smaller party in the next election. It's only the fact that it's possible for any party to win a majority of seats with about 35% of the vote that lets a minority party (in Britain generally the Conservatives) take advantage of these situations.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

I answered your question accurately, fairly and, I’m sure you’ll agree, decisively. I wasn’t looking to be called mental, a Nazi or have my income audited. We’ll leave it there. Thank you for doing your best.

I'd also add, that I never suggested you're a Nazi, and I'm not sure where that suggestion has come from.

 

[jcdenton08]

What we certainly can agree on, is that I hope it gets worse and worse for the Tories. Then it can get worse still!

 

[clapham_gull]

It looks like Kent is revolting.

Gillingham particularly.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Hugely distressing.

The numbers keep getting worse and worse for Labour. I bet the Libs can’t believe what is happening. Nice to see the Tories get a well deserved shoeing though.

Massive change needed at Labour HQ

Sorry but I haven't seen anybody at 'Labour HQ', the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, or the many independents getting distressed by these results, quite the opposite. The only people getting distressed by these results are the Conservative party and yourself as far as I can see

 

[Audax]

It looks like Kent is revolting

Not just Kent. Wealden yet to declare as there's 6 wards yet to be finalised. But looking at Sussex Express live feed Cons have lost control and could potentially only be the 4th largest grouping behind LDems, Greens, and Independents.

They've been absolutely battered, could lose as many as 23 seats if they fail to win any of the 6 remaining.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The numbers keep getting worse and worse for Labour. I bet the Libs can’t believe what is happening. Nice to see the Tories get a well deserved shoeing though.

Massive change needed at Labour HQ.

This is literally the line the Tories were pedalling on Today this morning when it’s their own vote that’s been decimated. Labour continues to make gains. I think we can all see where your affections really lie, it comes over in all your political posts.

But I should probably remind you anyway that the Con Lib coalition got plenty of things done from 2010 and led to a succession of Tory only governments rather than Labour getting in. Things only really got bad when Cameron lost Brexit and May couldn’t implement it. Cue another election and a huge Tory majority which has been completely hamstrung by people who can’t follow their own rules or keep their dicks in their pants. Three Prime Ministers later and we’re all living hand to mouth.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Lindfield has gone Lib Dem apparently with the leader of MSDC losing their seat.

 

[Audax]

They've been absolutely battered, could lose as many as 23 seats if they fail to win any of the 6 remaining.

Full Wealden results now declared. Conservatives have lost control in an absolute battering:

Lib Dems: gained 7 (to have 13)
Greens: gained 7 (to have 11)
"Other": gained 3 (to have 10)
Con: lost 20 (to have 8) (and 1 of those was uncontested!)
Lab: gained 3 (to have 3)

Nus Ghani in trouble at the next GE despite having a 25,655 majority in 2019? Plenty of anti-Tory votes. Question will be whether the voters can get behind a single tactical "oust the Tory" candidate (LibDem?).

 

[vegster]

This is literally the line the Tories were pedalling on Today this morning when it’s their own vote that’s been decimated. Labour continues to make gains. I think we can all see where your affections really lie, it comes over in all your political posts.

But I should probably remind you anyway that the Con Lib coalition got plenty of things done from 2010 and led to a succession of Tory only governments rather than Labour getting in. Things only really got bad when Cameron lost Brexit and May couldn’t implement it. Cue another election and a huge Tory majority which has been completely hamstrung by people who can’t follow their own rules or keep their dicks in their pants. Three Prime Ministers later and we’re all living hand to mouth.

Lying in the face of the obvious is a bedrock party policy to the Tory's.

 

[Audax]

This is literally the line the Tories were pedalling on Today this morning when it’s their own vote that’s been decimated. Labour continues to make gains.

Curtice has been suggesting the gains might not (quite) be enough to indicate Labour are on course to win a majority. But by the same token, none of the analysis that comes out of today will include potential gains that Labour can make in Scotland due to the SNP seemingly bent on throwing away their massive majority.

 

[MJsGhost]

Full Wealden results now declared. Conservatives have lost control in an absolute battering:

Lib Dems: gained 7 (to have 13)
Greens: gained 7 (to have 11)
"Other": gained 3 (to have 10)
Con: lost 20 (to have 8) (and 1 of those was uncontested!)
Lab: gained 3 (to have 3)

Nus Ghani in trouble at the next GE despite having a 25,655 majority in 2019? Plenty of anti-Tory votes. Question will be whether the voters can get behind a single tactical "oust the Tory" candidate (LibDem?).

Sadly, I don't see the Tories losing Wealden at a GE because the answer to the question you pose is likely to be no.

Ghani received over 60% of the votes, so it'll take a massive drop AND for non-Tory voters to coalesce behind one party for there to be change. Would Labour step aside? Unlikely as they were only a few percent behind the LibDems, who realistically would be the only party likely to attract significant numbers of deserting Tory voters.

Meanwhile, next door in Lewes, my MP Maria Caulfield is toast for sure, with a majority under 2,500!