[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[dazzer6666]

I did the predictor thing after the Arsenal game. Came up with a pretty similar outcome EXCEPT West Ham did a lot worse and it came down to the last day for them and Villa.

I had us losing to Leicester btw. Tried to be as unbiased and realistic as possible. But 33/34 points was enough to stay up (and we finished 15th).

I've had another look and I really cannot see where the points can come from for 2 of West Ham / Plucky / Villa (plus Watford who will be safe) to overtake us.

No chickens counted, but we are in the driving seat now and I completely agree with what a Stato has said re Potter and the preparations by the coaches and the squad.

Can't remember who it was but someone on the radio was saying as much earlier today - Li'l ole Brighton seem to have come back better prepared, fitter and more focused than most other clubs, and head and shoulders above the other 'relegation battlers'.

For me, Connolly and Trossard looked to have bulked up a bit, Bissouma and Maupay's work rate vs Arsenal was just astonishing (so fitness definitely not an issue) and tactically Potter has got most things spot on (Rodgers wouldn't have predicted our Leicester line up at all), including getting Ali Mac and Tariq to a place where they were ready to start a game. Although Leicester were crap, the defensive performance in the second half was so disciplined - both tactically (including adjusting for Duffy being on the field rather than Webster) and in terms of player concentration (which says a lot about their mindset and the way they are being coached). Despite all their possession Maty had nothing to do. Dunk has been immense - particularly knowing a yellow will get him a ban.

 

[essbee1]

Can't remember who it was but someone on the radio was saying as much earlier today - Li'l ole Brighton seem to have come back better prepared, fitter and more focused than most other clubs, and head and shoulders above the other 'relegation battlers'.

For me, Connolly and Trossard looked to have bulked up a bit, Bissouma and Maupay's work rate vs Arsenal was just astonishing (so fitness definitely not an issue) and tactically Potter has got most things spot on (Rodgers wouldn't have predicted our Leicester line up at all), including getting Ali Mac and Tariq to a place where they were ready to start a game. Although Leicester were crap, the defensive performance in the second half was so disciplined - both tactically (including adjusting for Duffy being on the field rather than Webster) and in terms of player concentration (which says a lot about their mindset and the way they are being coached). Despite all their possession Maty had nothing to do. Dunk has been immense - particularly knowing a yellow will get him a ban.

This. The only blip I can see is Villa getting that late equaliser last night. Difference between 6 pts and 7pts gap
is huge with our better goal difference, meaning they'd have had to win three games more than us to go past
us. Oh well, can't have everything.

 

[LlcoolJ]

This. The only blip I can see is Villa getting that late equaliser last night. Difference between 6 pts and 7pts gap
is huge with our better goal difference, meaning they'd have had to win three games more than us to go past
us. Oh well, can't have everything.

Yes, that's just being greedy.

 

[Jim in the West]

I thought that Brooks coming back for Bournemouth, and McGinn for Villa, would have given each a significant boost. However, McGinn has been way off the pace, and Brooks gets isolated too easily. And I don’t think anyone would have factored in Lamptey and MacAllister for us - it’s like having two completely new, excellent, signings.
The other thing that might make a difference is Haller coming back for West Ham. If he’s fully fit he should make a difference.

 

[Machiavelli]

I thought that Brooks coming back for Bournemouth, and McGinn for Villa, would have given each a significant boost. However, McGinn has been way off the pace, and Brooks gets isolated too easily. And I don’t think anyone would have factored in Lamptey and MacAllister for us - it’s like having two completely new, excellent, signings.
The other thing that might make a difference is Haller coming back for West Ham. If he’s fully fit he should make a difference.

Haven't seen Brooks, but agree with you re McGinn and our two (I even started a thread on them). That said, I hadn't noticed Haller making a difference so far this season so, if he ploughs on doing the same as he has done so far, I'd be delighted.

 

[AZ Gull]

You do realise you are predicting we are safe already?

Well, assuming we don't lose every match 5-0.....

 

[Machiavelli]

I have been wondering whether Graham Potter has already done a lot of things that he needed to do to best equip his squad during the window that the break has given him. All the analysis of his style and the interviews with him that I have read seem to focus on his wanting to maximise the opportunities of each individual, focusing on making yourself the best equipped you can be to achieve personal bests. If this approach has been applied during lockdown, I would think that he and his coaching team would have been in regular contact with each squad member supporting them to achieve bespoke programmes, before coming back together to focus on joint objectives.

I also suspect that his open-mindedness and imaginative approach to managing a group would have been a strength in unprecedented circumstances. There have been a couple of comments from players about the amount of hard work they have all done in the window and one thing that seems already apparent is Aaron Connolly looking a little stronger and more difficult to push around in the game and a bit he has played so far.

The potential advantages available to a manager allowed to make more changes have obviously been given consideration and Potter seems like he will seek to maximise these and make wide use of the whole squad in what has pretty much become tournament football. The squad looks better equipped than some others to cope with the games coming around so quickly. You would think that, until he gets suspended, Dunk will play all games, and that, if fit Ryan will play, but everyone else is probably interchangeable with someone of a similar standard. In the present circumstances, this would seem to be preferable to having a very good first eleven and weaker backup players.

Top, top post. I particularly like your comment about tournament football.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Top, top post. I particularly like your comment about tournament football.

It does feel a bit like the World Cup doesn't it. Especially with the weather.

Not quite as good as being able to nip to the boozer for Argentina v South Korea, but it's definitely got that vibe to it. Basically neutral grounds and nearly every game matters in one way or another. I certainly wouldn't normally be celebrating a Burnley goal against Watford.

I wouldn't even have bothered watching it.

 

[Machiavelli]

It does feel a bit like the World Cup doesn't it. Especially with the weather.

Not quite as good as being able to nip to the boozer for Argentina v South Korea, but it's definitely got that vibe to it. Basically neutral grounds and nearly every game matters in one way or another. I certainly wouldn't normally be celebrating a Burnley goal against Watford.

I wouldn't even have bothered watching it.

Yes, I sat through too much of that. You forgot to add that you were cheering a goal scored by a racist. Fortunately it was dinner time soon after that went in, and the three of us sat down and watched the second half of Moneyball

 

[Giraffe]

Revised predicted finish after tonight's games:

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 39
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

Slight adjustment thanks to our favourite Jay.

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 38
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

 

[Machiavelli]

I'd be surprised if one of the bottom 5 get as many as 38 points, let alone two of them, ditto Norwich to 31. Villa and Muff in low 30s seems about right.

 

[dazzer6666]

I'd be surprised if one of the bottom 5 get as many as 38 points, let alone two of them, ditto Norwich to 31. Villa and Muff in low 30s seems about right.

Yep - they'll have to do very significantly better than they have so far this season - 10/11 points from 7 games, so average around 1.5 ppg after averaging less than 0.9 ppg over 31 games. Could happen, but as you say unlikely that one will do it, let alone more.

 

[Stato]

For saddoes like me interested in this kind of analysis. (Apologies for the picture quality).

These two tables look at the bottom six's points per game, first over the season, then over the last five games they've played. It's colour coded to show the PPG improvement each side would need to make to reach each number of points by the end of the season. Norwich, as we know, look doomed however you measure it. Over the last five games form, of the bottom four, West Ham have the least improvement to make to save themselves. Once they have played Chelsea, the third of their tough games following the restart, their fixtures look start to look less challenging. On recent form, Bournemouth need to start to get much better or much luckier very quickly.



From our point of view it suggests what we would have assumed: continue picking up points at the rate we have been recently and we'll probably be fine. It also indicates that on season form, all of the bottom four will have to improve their current PPG return in order to get to 34 points, and if measured on recent form, all five need to improve to reach 34, some of them significantly. This is not to suggest that 34 points will be enough to survive, but only that, if at least three of those below us don't improve their PPG in the last seven games, it would be.

 

[Giraffe]

Slight revision thanks to Watford screwing up v Saints.

15 - Brighton 39
16 - West Ham 38
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 - Norwich 31

 

[Giraffe]

Update after last night's defeat. All expected. No change. Still one point down. 17 behind Europe now though - I guess it isn't going to happen this year then.

Come on Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal tonight.

 

[Acker79]

Update after last night's defeat. All expected. No change. Still one point down. 17 behind Europe now though - I guess it isn't going to happen this year then.

With the possible ban of Man City, and such, it's been said 8th place could be enough for Europe. Don't rule it out just yet!

 

[Bob!]

Slight adjustment thanks to our favourite Jay.

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 38
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

I assume that's Bournemouth down to 30 now then?

 

[Giraffe]

I assume that's Bournemouth down to 30 now then?

Yes a big swing night with Bournemouth dropping 3 points and West Ham gaining 3 bonus points. Eddie in the brown stuff.

Revised predictor:

15 - West Ham 41
16 - Brighton 39
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Norwich 31
20 - Bournemouth 30

 

[Audax]

Yes a big swing night with Bournemouth dropping 3 points and West Ham gaining 3 bonus points. Eddie in the brown stuff.

Revised predictor:

15 - West Ham 41
16 - Brighton 39
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Norwich 31
20 - Bournemouth 30

Can you pop in what your predictor is giving each team per match for the remaining fixtures? Would save me the time of working it up myself for a little sheet I'm putting together specifically tracking these final rounds, possible maximums, and predicted results, and the actual results as they come in.

 

[Giraffe]

Can you pop in what your predictor is giving each team per match for the remaining fixtures? Would save me the time of working it up myself for a little sheet I'm putting together specifically tracking these final rounds, possible maximums, and predicted results, and the actual results as they come in.

Here you go.