[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[Bob!]

One point back today, still five down.

So....

One win in our next 5 games would put us back on track!

 

[nickbrighton]

Just 2 points behind now? with only 1 point expected at Norwich, with a sneaky point before then from Leicester or Man Utd and a win quite possible at Norwich we could easily be ahead by the Liverpool and City games. Things looking very different than just 24 hours ago.

 

[vagabond]

This is what I was saying months ago, the tracker is good fun, but it wasn’t realistic to have 0 pts expected against all the so called “big teams” at home.

 

[Bold Seagull]

This is what I was saying months ago, the tracker is good fun, but it wasn’t realistic to have 0 pts expected against all the so called “big teams” at home.

It’s not meant to be realistic. There is no attempt on [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]’s part to make a predictive model, it’s just cold simple results based on previous season finish and home and away advantage. There is no subjective predictions whatsoever. The JOY of the tracker is the results like yesterday. It should never be predicting these, and that’s why it’s beautiful.

 

[nickbrighton]

It’s not meant to be realistic. There is no attempt on [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]’s part to make a predictive model, it’s just cold simple results based on previous season finish and home and away advantage. There is no subjective predictions whatsoever. The JOY of the tracker is the results like yesterday. It should never be predicting these, and that’s why it’s beautiful.

Agree 100%. There are plenty of prediction models if you like that sort of thing, but as the "super computer" ones show (and results like yesterday) its not possible to predict an entire season of results, so they have to change almost weekly. The Tracker is a simple, easy to understand GUIDE to how we are doing relative to the goal of 40 points, it doesn't change after every game so provides a stable base line from which to measure progress throughout the season. Its easy to adjust for our relegation threatened rivals to give an indication of how they may do, and quite easy to augment with European, Top Four lines should we so require. This is one of our "go to" pages after each match, as it doesn't rely on other teams matches being completed to see where we are (league tables can be very misleading once you have any difference of numbers of games played by the opposition.

 

[FatSuperman]

Whilst our spotty longneck is busy, I thought I'd post an update to show how we are tracking against all the other metrics. We're still doing OK versus similar opponents from our previous PL seasons, and not far off the 'highest ever safety target', which actually intersects with the Giraffe model on this gameweek. I don't think my heart will be able to handle only getting 1 point over the next 5 matches though, so would be good to beat the model a few more times in the next couple of weeks!

 

[Sorrel]

Reasonably well positioned in the highest ever safety target and lowest ever safety target corridor.

 

[Official Old Man]

What a difference 3 points makes.
Just tried the Fishy prediction league and we seem pretty secure.
https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?Competition=1

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Whilst our spotty longneck is busy, I thought I'd post an update to show how we are tracking against all the other metrics. We're still doing OK versus similar opponents from our previous PL seasons, and not far off the 'highest ever safety target', which actually intersects with the Giraffe model on this gameweek. I don't think my heart will be able to handle only getting 1 point over the next 5 matches though, so would be good to beat the model a few more times in the next couple of weeks!

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I believe in increasing exponentially and getting out of the colourful zone; it will all be down to the G rate.

More Goals!

 

[vagabond]

It’s not meant to be realistic. There is no attempt on [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]’s part to make a predictive model, it’s just cold simple results based on previous season finish and home and away advantage. There is no subjective predictions whatsoever. The JOY of the tracker is the results like yesterday. It should never be predicting these, and that’s why it’s beautiful.

I know that, you know that, unfortunately some take the predictor as gospel and when we didn’t pick up some so called “winnable points” at home started saying we were going down.

 

[sagaman]

Still think his selections are poor

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

 

[Giraffe]

Here we go. Seems weird updating this but what a bloody great result yesterday. Now just 2 points behind, so an adjusted prediction of 38.

For anyone interested we are now just 14 behind the Europe tracker

 

[FatSuperman]

Here we go. Seems weird updating this but what a bloody great result yesterday. Now just 2 points behind, so an adjusted prediction of 38.

For anyone interested we are now just 14 behind the Europe tracker

Imagine how nice the update would be if we snuck 3 points at Leicester. Oh to be above the line.

 

[Giraffe]

The adjusted prediction for final standings now looks like this. Our win over Arsenal, and Bournemouth's failure to beat Palace are two massive swings.

Watford 39
Brighton 38
West Ham 38
Bournemouth 33
Aston Villa 32
Norwich 31

It was never in doubt

 

[GT49er]

The adjusted prediction for final standings now looks like this. Our win over Arsenal, and Bournemouth's failure to beat Palace are two massive swings.

Watford 39
Brighton 38
West Ham 38
Bournemouth 33
Aston Villa 32
Norwich 31

It was never in doubt

...... and with luck in three or four games time, we'll be able to start the 'Teams that can't catch us' thread!

 

[Pevenseagull]

the first graph in months that has given me happiness

 

[Reddleman]

Only one point behind the tracker now. Who would have thought that after we lost to Palace. What a tremendous turnaround.

I am feeling so much more positive tonight!!

 

[dazzer6666]

Only one point behind the tracker now. Who would have thought that after we lost to Palace. What a tremendous turnaround.

I am feeling so much more positive tonight!!

We won’t need 40 points anyway......

 

[Bold Seagull]

It’s not like [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] is travelling home from the game, why isn’t this tracker lockdown instant!?

 

[Giraffe]

It’s not like [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] is travelling home from the game, why isn’t this tracker lockdown instant!?

Yes you are quite right. I have given myself a good talking to, so here you go.

Just one point behind now, the closest we have been since 1st February. Lovely stuff. On tonight's first half form, I wouldn't bet against us getting a result against Man Utd either.