The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[Buzzer]

UK exports to the EU account for 15% of the UK's GDP.

EU exports to the UK account for 5% of the EU's GDP.

Now express both percentages in good old fashioned pounds sterling.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

And it is in the EU's overriding interest to give us as rotten an exit deal as possible to disuade other countries from doing a similar exit.

If that was their only motivation you may have a point but it isn't. The current and near future economic context ...

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut all three of its interest rates. One of them, the deposit rate, has been pushed further into negative territory.
ECB President Mario Draghi has also announced that quantitative easing will be expanded by €20bn a month and will now include debt issued by "non-banks" - ie other businesses.

What does that tell us?

That the ECB is very worried about sickly growth and deflation across the Eurozone.

And that after disappointing the markets last time, it wants to produce a bit of "shock and awe" to spark a change in behaviour and encourage lending by banks and investment by businesses.

Share prices are up, and the euro is down.

Mr Draghi will be now be watching to see if the ECB's actions have any effect on economic growth.

If they don't, the central bank has a major problem. As do the major European economies, held in a deflationary spiral by slowing growth, low global demand and crumbling commodity prices.

Once you have fired the bazooka, you had better hope it has the desired effect.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35775674

After Brexit we would be the EU's single biggest trading partner in trade of goods and one of if not the biggest export market. Considering the fragile nature of the European economy I think they have little room to engage in petty economic punishment games but do have a huge vested interest in seeing a smooth as possible, speedy transition to a mutually beneficial trade deal. Not saying it will be easy mind!

 

[pastafarian]

If that was their only motivation you may have a point but it isn't. The current and near future economic context ...

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut all three of its interest rates. One of them, the deposit rate, has been pushed further into negative territory.
ECB President Mario Draghi has also announced that quantitative easing will be expanded by €20bn a month and will now include debt issued by "non-banks" - ie other businesses.

What does that tell us?

That the ECB is very worried about sickly growth and deflation across the Eurozone.

And that after disappointing the markets last time, it wants to produce a bit of "shock and awe" to spark a change in behaviour and encourage lending by banks and investment by businesses.

Share prices are up, and the euro is down.

Mr Draghi will be now be watching to see if the ECB's actions have any effect on economic growth.

If they don't, the central bank has a major problem. As do the major European economies, held in a deflationary spiral by slowing growth, low global demand and crumbling commodity prices.

Once you have fired the bazooka, you had better hope it has the desired effect.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35775674

After Brexit we would be the EU's single biggest trading partner in trade of goods and one of if not the biggest export market. Considering the fragile nature of the European economy I think they have little room to engage in petty economic punishment games but do have a huge vested interest in seeing a smooth as possible, speedy transition to a mutually beneficial trade deal. Not saying it will be easy mind!

If Turkey joining the EU(it will happen) hasnt scared the crap out of anyone,and it seems most people are united this would be potty then the way the eurozone economy is heading should be sounding massive alarm bells........time to cut the umbilical cord now before we are unwittingly sucked into its collapse

 

[heathgate]

UK exports to the EU account for 15% of the UK's GDP.

EU exports to the UK account for 5% of the EU's GDP.

Significant chunk in both directions...neither side will benefit from any restrictions or tariffs.

 

[sir albion]

what you done here is highlighted very well ,by your own admission, one major difference between some in the IN campaign and the OUT campaign.

You simply have no trust or belief in your own nation to manage its own affairs, its not your fault really,this idea has been promoted for years, people have been running the nation down for ages saying how awful it is, and even was, saying everything we have and stand for is built on a rotten past and we are now so weak we have to be in a club to achieve anything. Its almost an ideology for some self loathers to hate Britain. It is a very very negative way of thinking.

The OUT side conversely have every trust and faith we are fully capable in managing our own affairs without a EU babysitter. They even believe we are capable of flourishing. You may say this is wrong or even ridiculously over confident but the fact remains it is an overwhelmingly much more positive mind set in comparison.

I can only believe this positive message is a good thing to be drumming into businesses, workers and the rest of the citizens as opposed to the negative message we are unable to function on the global map without outside help.

Very well put sir

 

[GT49er]

Jesus. By saying freedom to trade with the rest of the world are you intentionally overlooking the fact we would obviously have to renegotiate a trade agreement with our current biggest trade partner, partner that we have just had a very public divorce from, or do you honestly believe we will stick a good old fashioned Agincourt two fingers up to them and march off to countries like China who would recognise us for the mighty nation we once were and give us a nice favourable trade deal?

Trade agreement, trade agreement, is that it? Is that all you've got?

Yes, the lack of a trade agreement will be tragic. Imagine conversations like this all over the continent:
"Good afternoon, I'd like to buy a Mercedes Benz, please."
"I'm sorry sir, we can't sell you one - we don' have a trade agreement!"
Trade is conducted by individuals and organisations, and will continue to be so. International business corporations certainly won't let the lack of a trade agreement stand in their way!

 

[sir albion]

May as well bin buying bmw's as well and start manufacturing like we used to...I'm sure the Germans would happily not sell billions of pounds worth of German cars to us cough cough.

 

[Captain Sensible]

We are a market of 60 odd million people... they need us to buy their goods.

I'd put it the other way, we need to buy off them and have them buy off of us. They are a bigger market with bigger resources.

 

[Captain Sensible]

UK exports to the EU account for 15% of the UK's GDP.

EU exports to the UK account for 5% of the EU's GDP.

Exactly!

 

[Captain Sensible]

if you can only discredit our country and have no faith in it why not just f*ck off, be easier surely not.

Oh you cheeky little thicko

 

[Soulman]

I'd put it the other way, we need to buy off them and have them buy off of us. They are a bigger market with bigger resources.

We import 65% from the EU and export 35%. Our utility companies are owned mainly by EU countries, do you think the " bigger market with bigger resources" will feel the need not to " buy off of us."

 

[El Presidente]

We import 65% from the EU and export 35%. Our utility companies are owned mainly by EU countries, do you think the " bigger market with bigger resources" will feel the need not to " buy off of us."

I suspect that both parties will need to buy off against each other. What concerns me most is

1: We have a trade surplus on services but a huge deficit on goods. It's a lot easier to transfer services from one country to another than goods. Therefore it would be an issue to build up a goods based domestic production economy, as we lack the skills, management and reputation in this area.

2: We are relatively more dependent on exports to the EU as a proportion of GDP than they are to us. This would give the EU an upper hand in negotiating a trade deal, as they are less dependent than the UK.

3: It will take some time to negotiate these deals, all the while this is taking place there will be a negative impact on job creation.

 

[Soulman]

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), will be investigating the huge discrepancy between National Insurance (UK social security) registrations and the official immigration figures.

Put simply, no NI number, no access to anything - benefits, health etc

While the International Passenger Survey estimated a rise 53,000 Romanians and Bulgarians in Britain, there were actually 214,000 NI registrations. The discrepancies reported in other migrant groups will be reviewed by the ONS with a view to revealing the true scale of migration into the UK ahead of the European Union (EU) membership referendum on June
23rd.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/201...figures-and-national-insurance-registrations/

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Trade agreement, trade agreement, is that it? Is that all you've got?

Yes, the lack of a trade agreement will be tragic. Imagine conversations like this all over the continent:
"Good afternoon, I'd like to buy a Mercedes Benz, please."
"I'm sorry sir, we can't sell you one - we don' have a trade agreement!"
Trade is conducted by individuals and organisations, and will continue to be so. International business corporations certainly won't let the lack of a trade agreement stand in their way!

The lack of an agreement doesn't make trade impossible but it does make it harder.

 

[Soulman]

I suspect that both parties will need to buy off against each other. What concerns me most is

1: We have a trade surplus on services but a huge deficit on goods. It's a lot easier to transfer services from one country to another than goods. Therefore it would be an issue to build up a goods based domestic production economy, as we lack the skills, management and reputation in this area.

2: We are relatively more dependent on exports to the EU as a proportion of GDP than they are to us. This would give the EU an upper hand in negotiating a trade deal, as they are less dependent than the UK.

3: It will take some time to negotiate these deals, all the while this is taking place there will be a negative impact on job creation.

Fair enough but is this what will happen, what we are told could happen, or what we are led to believe.
A few countries have stated they will still trade with us straight after the referendum whether in or out, in fact a couple have stated they will increase trade.
I wonder if we exit the EU whether other countries would follow, the Dutch people for example are mainly in favour of leaving and will be watching closely.
I do wonder how many inners on this thread would vote exit if us leaving broke up the EU, i suspect quite a few.
A "negative impact on job creation" will be there if we keep letting in 330,000 people every year which will really impact on benefit payments if/when we go into another recession, which is normally around every 10-12 years.
Do we want to be reliant/bullied by the EU and the perceived threat if we do not toe the line, we have already seen the little that Cameron's deals achieved and that was with the threat of us leaving.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

May as well bin buying bmw's as well and start manufacturing like we used to...I'm sure the Germans would happily not sell billions of pounds worth of German cars to us cough cough.

...and I expect the Germans would like an agreement with the UK for the reasons you imply.



Trouble is, every EU member state would have to sign up to such an agreement and some of them might not be in a hurry to do so.

 

[Soulman]

Oh dear, who and what else will the IN campaign dig up.

If Britain leaves the European Union all its protected wildlife – newts and bats especially – will be mercilessly slaughtered, surfers and swimmers will drown in raw sewage and the air will become so toxic that birds will drop dead out of the sky. Well, so all the environmental charities are warning, in line with the Dear Leader’s #ProjectFear.


Britain’s biggest environmental charities have been accused of using public donations to campaign for staying in the European Union. The charities watchdog will on Monday issue new guidance on political neutrality after Friends of the Earth, The Wildlife Trusts and Greenpeace all made public comments backing EU membership. The charities have all insisted that Britain being a member of the EU is vital to protecting Britain’s wildlife – with one suggesting that those backing Brexit want to make the country “the dirty man of Europe”

Gosh, I wonder what possible reason they could have for breaching the terms of their charitable status and politicking so nakedly for a cause which has little to do with their remit. Here’s a clue from a report produced by the Institute of Economic Affairs called Euro Puppets: the European Commission’s Remaking of Civil Society. It lists how much Europe’s leading wildlife charities receive from the European Union – and what proportion this represents of their total funding. (The figures are for 2011)

Birdlife Europe €332,163 (35 per cent)
CEE Bankwatch Network €836,238 (45 per cent)
Climate Action Network Europe €295,022 (33 per cent)
European Environmental Bureau €894,000 (41 per cent)
European Federation for Transport and Environment €275,516 (16 per cent)
Health and Environment Alliance €362,992 (59 per cent)
Friends of the Earth Europe €1,195,259 (46 per cent)
Naturefriends €365,735 (41 per cent)
WWF European Policy Office €599,954 (13 per cent)

Meanwhile....
"In Leicestershire, it is reported, a row has broken out over revelations that a £15 million county council road scheme had been delayed for three months when environmentalists produced evidence that the site might be home to ‘between one and ten great crested newts’, These are a protected species under Annex 2 and Annex 4 of the European Union’s Habitats Directive (1992/43). To damage their habitat is a criminal offence.


The council had therefore spent an additional £1 million on building special ‘newt-proof’ fencing to create a 1,000 yard exclusion zone round the site, with the intention of capturing the newts to relocate them elsewhere. An exhaustive search then revealed that there were NO great crested newts in the area after all."

 

[brighton fella]

And thank GOD we would finally return to rule by solely that notoriously democratic first past the post system. Those chumps in Brussels elected by proportional representation don't know a thing about democracy.

i don't know how many times i have said this before but i'll say it once more for benefit of those of you who are a bit short of a picnic.
by leaving the EU gives us not only the opportunity to elect in who we see fit but the opportunity to remove them if they fail to live up to expectations, that method my friend is called DEMOCRACY. i am just as frustrated about the first past the post system as you are but all of the time we have democracy on our side we at least stand some sort of chance of removing such hideous outdated laws .it is very noticeable no in fact blatantly obvious.. that under the EU "people power" is slowly diminishing and what chances you ever thought you had of overturning such hideous laws will eventually be taken away for good.
it is about time politician's were made accountable to the people for a change rather than just themselves. which is how they operate inside the EU. besides i would put far more trust in a Brit making my laws for me rather than some unelected foreigner who couldn't give a flying t*ss about my country.

 

[brighton fella]

Oh you cheeky little thicko

how is that cheeky when all i am saying is f*ck off then if your not happy here.
good job our brave world war veterans never took your negative attitude otherwise we would all be now speaking in german, perhaps deep down that is what you want. you turncoat.

 

[El Presidente]

i am just as frustrated about the first past the post system as you are but all of the time we have democracy on our side we at least stand some sort of chance of removing such hideous outdated laws .

Indeed we had the chance in the referendum to change the first past the post system in 2011.

We voted to keep it.