The ultimate REFERENDUM thread

[Blue Valkyrie]

As I said above, my fear is that he is surrounded by a team that, let us not forget was led by Andy Coulson at one point, so lets not get too excited about calling them highly skilled, a team that is Tory to the core, and they will focus on those values that have been successful to DC in elections. This isn't an election. They're going to need to recalibrate their radar as they've got to turn David into someone that delivers a message that appeals to people who wouldn't ever vote for him. That didn't happen yesterday.



Of course it doesn't, Farage was banging on about how Norway does this, Norway does that. As you have done should have been easier to bat that one away, and yet it was a clearer message from Farage, than spinning a load of themes about.

The problem with Farage is that he comes across as a shouty pub bore.

Fine for those who like that type, but not so fine getting votes from those who really don't.

 

[brightn'ove]

Have to say it WOULD be quite nice to turn up at LGW immigration and not have to queue up with people from a couple of dozen other countries for an annoying amount of time just to get back into your own country. Tho I'm sure citizens of every other EU member nation feel pretty much the same.

LGW passport control is very badly organised, but go somewhere like Amsterdam, Copenhagen or Budapest and you cruise through the EU queue whilst the rest of the world have to queue up with 100s of Chinese tourists getting their passports stamped. No THANKS.

 

[heathgate]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...-the-change-we-want-vote-to-leave-the-EU.html

 

[beorhthelm]

Shurely shome mishtake?

if you have to go back 1200 years to find when the Norwegians had some impact, i think that shows how little they do have. we aren't Norway, our position in the world will not change much in or out of the EU. until we have the EU Foreign Policy and European Army foisted upon us of course, if we stay in, but they're a little down the road at the moment.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

But none of that is true is it. That's the point of the negotiations. We are opted out of all that.

1.) We do not have full control of our borders. Any EU citizen has the right to come here. Cameron's publicly announced negotiation demands didn't even address this issue.

2.) Large scale immigration will continue. Once again this is a fact. Cameron's tinkering with some benefit restrictions for new arrivals will make little or no difference. Most EU citizens come here to work not to claim benefits. The new UK living wage is likely to prove an even bigger draw for increased migration.

3.) Our courts and laws will be subservient to EU law/courts. We have to amend our law to comply with European law and face penalties if we do not conform. Cameron's negotiations didn't even address this issue see link http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/the-crucial-missing-part-of-camerons-eu-deal/

4.) We know ever closer union will continue towards a Federal European superstate. It will, with or without us. Cameron got a concession saying this doesn't apply to us but didn't secure any substantive protection or repatriation of powers to block this process.

5.) We know there will be an ongoing Eurozone crisis adversely effecting the EU. Once again true, including adversely effecting us. We are often told how important our trade with the EU is / a powerful trading block. So it clearly follows if they are in serious economic difficulty we will suffer. We are chained to this problem and restricted from independently seeking diverse trade deals to mitigate the effects.

6.) We know there will be an ongoing migrant crisis increasing societal and national tensions. I missed the news story that announced the migrant crisis had ended perhaps you could provide a link? The vast majority of the million plus migrants will at some point be granted EU citizenship - freedom to come here as will the next million.

As my original post was arguing these are all risks associated with staying in.

 

[Hamilton]

if you have to go back 1200 years to find when the Norwegians had some impact, i think that shows how little they do have. we aren't Norway, our position in the world will not change much in or out of the EU. until we have the EU Foreign Policy and European Army foisted upon us of course, if we stay in, but they're a little down the road at the moment.

That's a might assumption isn't it? On all fronts.

 

[5ways]

Here’s a comment from Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, a foreign exchange company, on the fall in the value of the pound.

Sterling seems to have fallen off the Boris cliff this morning. Just as things were beginning to look up last week, with strong retail sales data and a bit of jawboning from Jon Cunliffe of the MPC, the weekend’s political events have once again sent the pound reeling.

Boris Johnson’s cleverly staged endorsement of the campaign to leave the United Kingdom grabbed headlines, and regardless of the London mayor’s political motivations, this has had a sharp effect on sterling exchange rates. The implication is clear: while the Brexit referendum remains a live prospect, sterling is likely to be susceptible to these types of shocks, especially as the referendum date approaches.

This could just be the start of the great Brexit Selloff of 2016. As June 23rd approaches, polling is likely to narrow between the yes and no camps. In the run-up to the Scottish referendum some polls were even showing the independence vote on top. The prospect of such an event is pretty sobering for sterling, which would likely fall through even the multi-year lows seen earlier this year if this weekend’s reaction is anything to go by.

Imagine what will happen if we vote to leave. Yes, yes - scaremonger etc but I genuinely think we will be throwing the economy overboard into a maelstrom.


"Rating agency Moody’s has weighed in too, warning that “the economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefit”"


http://www.theguardian.com/politics...career-ending-his-father-claims-politics-live

 

[surrey jim]

Imagine what will happen if we vote to leave. Yes, yes - scaremonger etc but I genuinely think we will be throwing the economy overboard into a maelstrom.

I posted this on the Borris thread,

The 'In' camp always state that if we left the EU most of the global headquarters in London would relocate with the loss of jobs. If the Mayor of London (and also potential future Tory mayor, Zack Goldsmith) are confident enough to defy DC and they back us leaving, is there any concern that this would materialise? Surely the mayor of our capital should be fighting tooth and nail for us to remain in, and protect those HQ and jobs they create?

 

[Hamilton]

1.) We do not have full control of our borders. Any EU citizen has the right to come here. Cameron's publicly announced negotiation demands didn't even address this issue.

2.) Large scale immigration will continue. Once again this is a fact. Cameron's tinkering with some benefit restrictions for new arrivals will make little or no difference. Most EU citizens come here to work not to claim benefits. The new UK living wage is likely to prove an even bigger draw for increased migration.

3.) Our courts and laws will be subservient to EU law/courts. We have to amend our law to comply with European law and face penalties if we do not conform. Cameron's negotiations didn't even address this issue see link http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/the-crucial-missing-part-of-camerons-eu-deal/

4.) We know ever closer union will continue towards a Federal European superstate. It will, with or without us. Cameron got a concession saying this doesn't apply to us but didn't secure any substantive protection or repatriation of powers to block this process.

5.) We know there will be an ongoing Eurozone crisis adversely effecting the EU. Once again true, including adversely effecting us. We are often told how important our trade with the EU is / a powerful trading block. So it clearly follows if they are in serious economic difficulty we will suffer. We are chained to this problem and restricted from independently seeking diverse trade deals to mitigate the effects.

6.) We know there will be an ongoing migrant crisis increasing societal and national tensions. I missed the news story that announced the migrant crisis had ended perhaps you could provide a link? The vast majority of the million plus migrants will at some point be granted EU citizenship - freedom to come here as will the next million.

As my original post was arguing these are all risks associated with staying in.

1) I have no problem with Spaniards, Frenchmen and women, Germans etc. etc. coming here. Do you?
2) Yes, and?
3) All UK law? https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/
4) Assumption
5) Yes, and there will be global economic crises as well, none of which we are immune to by leaving the EU
6) Yes, and this will not be an EU only problem

 

[5ways]

I posted this on the Borris thread,

The 'In' camp always state that if we left the EU most of the global headquarters in London would relocate with the loss of jobs. If the Mayor of London (and also potential future Tory mayor, Zack Goldsmith) are confident enough to defy DC and they back us leaving, is there any concern that this would materialise? Surely the mayor of our capital should be fighting tooth and nail for us to remain in, and protect those HQ and jobs they create?

Like I replied to the other thread yes he should be. Of course Boris should know this better than me and I can't pretend to be better informed than he is. In a way this is reassuring; I don't want the worst predictions to come about, no one does.

But everything I've read from big banks, business groups, or like the rating's agency Moody's I quoted above spell out that Brexit will do more harm than good. I think it was Barclays who said the other day that they would move at least 1000 jobs to Paris, to work with the Euro currency. I have a feeling this is the tip of the iceberg.

He should be fighting uncertainty, he should be fighting for jobs. I think he is fighting for himself. I want to believe it is simply not a deeply cynical leadership ploy, but I don't know enough about him to comment.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

1) I have no problem with Spaniards, Frenchmen and women, Germans etc. etc. coming here. Do you?
2) Yes, and?
3) All UK law? https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-law-what-proportion-influenced-eu/
4) Assumption
5) Yes, and there will be global economic crises as well, none of which we are immune to by leaving the EU
6) Yes, and this will not be an EU only problem

1.) So true then
2.) So true then
3.) So true then
4.) So true then
5.) So true then
6.) So true then

 

[Hamilton]

1.) So true then
2.) So true then
3.) So true then
4.) So true then
5.) So true then
6.) So true then

Not sure how you've reached that conclusion, but whatever.

 

[Blackadder]

I haven't read every post in this thread so apologies if it's already been mentioned.

Do all the British pensioners that have retired to Spain, France etc get to vote in the referendum? (I'm guessing they will vote IN?).

Will they be allowed to stay in their adopted countries if we decide to leave the EU?

 

[Bold Seagull]

1.) We do not have full control of our borders. Any EU citizen has the right to come here. Cameron's publicly announced negotiation demands didn't even address this issue.

2.) Large scale immigration will continue. Once again this is a fact. Cameron's tinkering with some benefit restrictions for new arrivals will make little or no difference. Most EU citizens come here to work not to claim benefits. The new UK living wage is likely to prove an even bigger draw for increased migration.

In or out, our economy needs immigration to fuel growth. It is not something I necessarily welcome, but it is the reason we've had immigration numbers we've had for quarter of a century. I certainly wouldn't be voting leave if the primary reason was to reduce immigration numbers; I don't think that will happen. Most of our migrants are needed and contribute to the economy. Leaving will change how they apply to come in, but it don't think it follows we'll suddenly be reducing the numbers.

 

[Chief Wiggum]

The comments section of this article has some very interesting contributions from both outers and inners. Worth a read.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/...ght-unite-to-eject-the-green-eu-from-britain/

 

[JC Footy Genius]

In or out, our economy needs immigration to fuel growth. It is not something I necessarily welcome, but it is the reason we've had immigration numbers we've had for quarter of a century. I certainly wouldn't be voting leave if the primary reason was to reduce immigration numbers; I don't think that will happen. Most of our migrants are needed and contribute to the economy. Leaving will change how they apply to come in, but it don't think it follows we'll suddenly be reducing the numbers.

I wasn't saying we shouldn't have any immigration just pointing out a few facts after being told everything I was saying was untrue.

Completely agree we need some immigration but we need balanced immigration not an open door. The economic argument is only one factor and lower rates of better controlled immigration can still benefit our economy. The devil is in the detail of course. Setting up a new (points?) system in the short term removing automatic access to our job market for all EU citizens would be likely to reduce the numbers in my view.

 

[Triggaaar]

Imagine what will happen if we vote to leave. Yes, yes - scaremonger etc but I genuinely think we will be throwing the economy overboard into a maelstrom.

And I genuinely think our economy will be fine. If we stay, things will get progressively worse for the UK, as we pay more and more to support a failing project.

 

[5ways]

1.) We do not have full control of our borders. Any EU citizen has the right to come here. Cameron's publicly announced negotiation demands didn't even address this issue.

2.) Large scale immigration will continue. Once again this is a fact. Cameron's tinkering with some benefit restrictions for new arrivals will make little or no difference. Most EU citizens come here to work not to claim benefits. The new UK living wage is likely to prove an even bigger draw for increased migration.

3.) Our courts and laws will be subservient to EU law/courts. We have to amend our law to comply with European law and face penalties if we do not conform. Cameron's negotiations didn't even address this issue see link http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/the-crucial-missing-part-of-camerons-eu-deal/

4.) We know ever closer union will continue towards a Federal European superstate. It will, with or without us. Cameron got a concession saying this doesn't apply to us but didn't secure any substantive protection or repatriation of powers to block this process.

5.) We know there will be an ongoing Eurozone crisis adversely effecting the EU. Once again true, including adversely effecting us. We are often told how important our trade with the EU is / a powerful trading block. So it clearly follows if they are in serious economic difficulty we will suffer. We are chained to this problem and restricted from independently seeking diverse trade deals to mitigate the effects.

6.) We know there will be an ongoing migrant crisis increasing societal and national tensions. I missed the news story that announced the migrant crisis had ended perhaps you could provide a link? The vast majority of the million plus migrants will at some point be granted EU citizenship - freedom to come here as will the next million.

As my original post was arguing these are all risks associated with staying in.

1) And we won't after Brexit. Norway and Switzerland have to accept the free movement of people for access to the market. They also pay for the privilege - what happened to taxation without representation?

2) I think immigration will continue to rise inside or out.

3) There is a lot of EU law we have to comply with, particularly relating to employment law. But outside we will still be subject to this regulation but have no influence over it. It is true that European legislation has primacy over national legislation as I understand as part of the 1975 entry. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...e-eu-sovereignty-michael-fallon-a6888696.html - Let's see if this sovereignty act comes to anything.

4) we can't block a process that we're not a part of. We will have special status, Europe can follow a path of closer union if it wants to. Either way we're outside of that arrangement while retaining the benefits. I'd rather have some say over this than none.

5) We are chained to each other either way. Europe is 45% of our exports so it is in our interest to help the EU get its act together. How can we do this? By bolstering the EU states who follow the rules, like Germany, Denmark or the Netherlands. This is in our interest and if we leave we diminish the northern Europeans who have similar outlooks on trade and capitalism.

6) As far as I can see most refugees will be ejected when possible. Economic migrants have no right to be here and should be swiftly deported. This is theory rather than practice but it looks suspiciously like Outer scaremongering (!)

 

[Chief Wiggum]

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

I haven't read every post in this thread so apologies if it's already been mentioned.

Do all the British pensioners that have retired to Spain, France etc get to vote in the referendum? (I'm guessing they will vote IN?).

Will they be allowed to stay in their adopted countries if we decide to leave the EU?

I only know that my mother-in-law who lives in France can vote here (postal) nationally but can only vote locally in France. It got reduced recently from 20 years to 15 from your last electoral registration. Often people complaint because the paperwork is delayed and their votes are missed.

All this small details on moneys and benefits, I think the UK government sends out a lot in set benefits like winter fuel payments that compare to child benefit payments to registered parents from the UK that live else where in the Euro zone.

Staying in another county if we leave would be down to what Visa requirements/rules that would then have to be agreed and negotiated - but I imagine they could lose any medical benefits and be liable for charges and taxes that may well be currently free.