If you look at social media you’d have thought not much social distancing was going on ..so gut tells me other things are happening
Still perhaps we should be discussing this on the main COVID thread
The peak was before the lockdown etc came in.
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[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
The peak was before the lockdown etc came in.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Norman Potting
Well-known member
That's a big "THIS" from me.
https://unherd.com/thepost/a-major-covid-milestone-that-you-wont-find-on-the-bbc/
On 19th August, England passed a significant milestone, which since today we can report with some confidence: there were zero reported deaths following a positive Covid-19 test in hospitals or other settings, for the first time since 7th March.
This is a remarkable event, but check the homepage of the BBC or any other mainstream publication and there is no mention of it at all. For months, the country was battered by daily headlines about Covid deaths, but with this good news comes no commensurate coverage.
This is especially surprising given that the daily hospital deaths report has been the single most reliable indicator of progress throughout the coronavirus crisis. From early April, I started tweeting daily updates on English hospital deaths by the actual date of death, as provided by NHS England. As deaths can take some time to be reported, this number does not usually reach something close to its final total until five days later.
This method meant that as early as the 10th April, we could identify that deaths had probably already peaked two days earlier. On 15th April, the Chief Medical Officer told the daily press conference that deaths were still increasing despite the fact that the date-of-death data told us unambiguously that we had passed the peak of deaths a week earlier.
The date-of-death numbers have been in single figures more often than not since the end of July, a period when the now-discredited Public Health England deaths measure was still reporting over 50 deaths per day and giving the false impression that easing restrictions had stopped deaths decreasing.
So the first day of zero reported deaths is a truly significant event. Lockdown was originally introduced in the middle of a crisis to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, but we are now in a very different situation: Weekly deaths involving flu and pneumonia are now over 6 times the number involving coronavirus, and Covid-19 hospitalisations have come down dramatically from a peak of more than 3,000 on the 1 April to an average of 50 per day now.
In light of this progress, it is frustrating that decisions over local restriction measures are focusing so much on reported new cases. As Carl Heneghan of the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine has explained, new case data are hard to interpret: not only do increased cases partly reflect the huge increase in testing, but also tests are likely to pick up some cases where the person is no longer infectious.
There will still be Covid-related deaths for some time to come and each one is of course an individual tragedy. It may even be that one or more will be reported later for 19th August. Nevertheless, it is essential that we reset our attitude towards coronavirus because our measures to fight the virus can no longer justify putting children’s education, the arts, sport, our economy and normal human interactions on hold.
Now is the time for us to rediscover how to live life together to the full. Perhaps if the media played its role in reporting the news — good or bad — we might reach that goal faster.
On 19th August, England passed a significant milestone, which since today we can report with some confidence: there were zero reported deaths following a positive Covid-19 test in hospitals or other settings, for the first time since 7th March.
This is a remarkable event, but check the homepage of the BBC or any other mainstream publication and there is no mention of it at all. For months, the country was battered by daily headlines about Covid deaths, but with this good news comes no commensurate coverage.
This is especially surprising given that the daily hospital deaths report has been the single most reliable indicator of progress throughout the coronavirus crisis. From early April, I started tweeting daily updates on English hospital deaths by the actual date of death, as provided by NHS England. As deaths can take some time to be reported, this number does not usually reach something close to its final total until five days later.
This method meant that as early as the 10th April, we could identify that deaths had probably already peaked two days earlier. On 15th April, the Chief Medical Officer told the daily press conference that deaths were still increasing despite the fact that the date-of-death data told us unambiguously that we had passed the peak of deaths a week earlier.
The date-of-death numbers have been in single figures more often than not since the end of July, a period when the now-discredited Public Health England deaths measure was still reporting over 50 deaths per day and giving the false impression that easing restrictions had stopped deaths decreasing.
So the first day of zero reported deaths is a truly significant event. Lockdown was originally introduced in the middle of a crisis to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, but we are now in a very different situation: Weekly deaths involving flu and pneumonia are now over 6 times the number involving coronavirus, and Covid-19 hospitalisations have come down dramatically from a peak of more than 3,000 on the 1 April to an average of 50 per day now.
In light of this progress, it is frustrating that decisions over local restriction measures are focusing so much on reported new cases. As Carl Heneghan of the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine has explained, new case data are hard to interpret: not only do increased cases partly reflect the huge increase in testing, but also tests are likely to pick up some cases where the person is no longer infectious.
There will still be Covid-related deaths for some time to come and each one is of course an individual tragedy. It may even be that one or more will be reported later for 19th August. Nevertheless, it is essential that we reset our attitude towards coronavirus because our measures to fight the virus can no longer justify putting children’s education, the arts, sport, our economy and normal human interactions on hold.
Now is the time for us to rediscover how to live life together to the full. Perhaps if the media played its role in reporting the news — good or bad — we might reach that goal faster.
blue-shifted
Banned
It's great news, but the suggestion that this non reporting is part of some BBC led conspiracy to keep us locked down is obvious nonsense and more likely part of some libertarian / right wing agenda. News outlets are reporting deaths on the basis of when they are officially announced.
If it's officially confirmed there is a date with no deaths which is tricky as there are always reporting delays and they are right to exercise caution, the government will be the ones to announce it and the news outlets will then fully cover that story and the reaction to it.
I agree it didnt need that bit, but I do think the MSM has been extremely gloomy in the last few weeks when in reality things have got a lot better...yes I know bad news sell papers, but some of the stories are really depressing some folks.
He does cover himself in saying about the zero deaths might change, but again says the NHS normally are correct after 5 days.
But this is the Good news thread...and BTW I am left of center in politics far far away from the right wing agenda
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
I agree it didnt need that bit, but I do think the MSM has been extremely gloomy in the last few weeks when in reality things have got a lot better...yes I know bad news sell papers, but some of the stories are really depressing some folks.
He does cover himself in saying about the zero deaths might change, but again says the NHS normally are correct after 5 days.
But this is the Good news thread...and BTW I am left of center in politics far far away from the right wing agenda
Spot on and that article is 99% about it...well posted
blue-shifted
Banned
I agree it didnt need that bit, but I do think the MSM has been extremely gloomy in the last few weeks when in reality things have got a lot better...yes I know bad news sell papers, but some of the stories are really depressing some folks.
He does cover himself in saying about the zero deaths might change, but again says the NHS normally are correct after 5 days.
But this is the Good news thread...and BTW I am left of center in politics far far away from the right wing agenda
I'd just remember if there is genuinely a day without deaths, the government will announce it with a massive fanfare. They aren't because they know how subject to change the death figure are. The media will then report on the story.
It's a fair point that the media generally has put too large an emphasis on number of cases and not on the seriousness of these cases. To defend the media, many of the organisations are struggling and need every click they can get.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
macbeth
Dismembered
Not 'news' as such, but it is nice to hear them (Oxford, that is) talking openly about the possibility of having the vaccine before the end of the year:
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN25L0P0
LONDON*(Reuters) - Trial data for the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca's possible coronavirus vaccine could be given to regulators this year but corners cannot be cut to speed up approval for emergency use, a scientist leading the trials said on Tuesday.
The Oxford vaccine produced an immune response in its first human trials, underlining its position as one of the leading candidates in the race to combat a virus that has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and crippled the global economy.
"It is just possible that if the cases accrue rapidly in the clinical trials, that we could have that data before regulators this year," Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, told BBC Radio of progress in larger, late-stage trials.
"Then there would be a process that they go through in order to make a full assessment of the data."
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN25L0P0
LONDON*(Reuters) - Trial data for the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca's possible coronavirus vaccine could be given to regulators this year but corners cannot be cut to speed up approval for emergency use, a scientist leading the trials said on Tuesday.
The Oxford vaccine produced an immune response in its first human trials, underlining its position as one of the leading candidates in the race to combat a virus that has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and crippled the global economy.
"It is just possible that if the cases accrue rapidly in the clinical trials, that we could have that data before regulators this year," Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, told BBC Radio of progress in larger, late-stage trials.
"Then there would be a process that they go through in order to make a full assessment of the data."
Uncle C
Well-known member
Countries like China and Russia seem to be skipping Phase 3 Clinical Trials.
Not very ethical if you are 'volunteered' to have the vaccine, but it will give data that means a worldwide roll out of a vaccine could come about more quickly.
Not very ethical if you are 'volunteered' to have the vaccine, but it will give data that means a worldwide roll out of a vaccine could come about more quickly.
blue-shifted
Banned
Western science won't get this data. They will get a highly curated version of
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1298247123180429315?s=21
One death added to that date ...that one is disappointing shows how far we’ve come
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
There are currently 459 Coronavirus patients in English hospitals, a week ago that number was 523 and a month ago it was 886.
Remember cases (and tests) have been ticking up since the start of July.
https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1298542735977316352?s=21
Remember cases (and tests) have been ticking up since the start of July.
https://twitter.com/profkarolsikora/status/1298542735977316352?s=21
Weekly COVID-19 cases in England decline for first time since July
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...nd-decline-for-first-time-since-july-12057658
This is both really positive and quite remarkable in my eyes. I've been out a few times recently (dining out, a couple of drinks etc.), and the feeling of normality was profound (if a little unnerving in many ways). However, by hook or by crook we appear to be keeping a lid on things for the time being and the much maligned track and trace system appears to be doing its job.
Without wanting to get ahead of ourselves, at this time we seem to be doing a better job of managing the situation than many other European nations.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...nd-decline-for-first-time-since-july-12057658
This is both really positive and quite remarkable in my eyes. I've been out a few times recently (dining out, a couple of drinks etc.), and the feeling of normality was profound (if a little unnerving in many ways). However, by hook or by crook we appear to be keeping a lid on things for the time being and the much maligned track and trace system appears to be doing its job.
Without wanting to get ahead of ourselves, at this time we seem to be doing a better job of managing the situation than many other European nations.
highflyer
Well-known member
- Jan 21, 2016
- 2,503
'A total of 75.5% of people who were in close contact with those who were initially contacted were reached'
That's hugely important. If we can keep at that level, or improving on it, alongside maintaining some simple cautionary behaviours, we should be able to keep a lid on things for some time to come. We won't eradicate it without a vaccine. But if levels in the community are kept low enough (which is what track and trace can do) we can get on with life, children return to school and vulnerable people can stay safe with some relatively easy precautions.
As long as it is only circulating at a relatively low level and amongst mainly younger people, the impact will be minimal and at a level with many other diseases that we live with fairly comfortably.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Aye it’s endemic in society but perhaps ‘we’ should become less fearful of its potency in
