[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Weststander]

Thank god this rain wasn't snow thou, how much would the rainfall convert too Papa, could we be talking feet

I personally would have loved it. Employers and snow/fun haters would have hated it.

It would have equated to several feet of snow, a Brighton record.

But in the UK, it would never happen, as the wet maritime systems that gave us all that rain, necessarily come with boringly mild air.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

I personally would have loved it. Employers and snow/fun haters would have hated it.

It would have equated to several feet of snow, a Brighton record.

But in the UK, it would never happen, as the wet maritime systems that gave us all that rain, necessarily come with boringly mild air.

I am not a fun hater but i am an employer and your right i would have hated it.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The latest output is yet another upgrade

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Some very cold runs in there, but still a large spread

 

[Conkers]

Damn, that'll be another couple of weeks glued to this thread and model outputs on Netweather then!

 

[Djmiles]

Weird. I only looked at the ensembles yesterday, and they were nothing spectacular! Winter has been abysmal so far, so we are due some cold and snow surely!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Weird. I only looked at the ensembles yesterday, and they were nothing spectacular! Winter has been abysmal so far, so we are due some cold and snow surely!

It certainly has. There's plenty of potential in the ensembles now, just too much spread for my liking. I'm sure tomorrow's output will help. We need cross model support as well, as the UKMO and ECM have yet to settle on a consistent evolution.

 

[Flex Your Head]

It certainly has. There's plenty of potential in the ensembles now, just too much spread for my liking. I'm sure tomorrow's output will help. We need cross model support as well, as the UKMO and ECM have yet to settle on a consistent evolution.

The BBC have started adding a graphic to their live forecasts showing temps dropping from above average now to below average by next weekend. Surely a good sign?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The BBC have started adding a graphic to their live forecasts showing temps dropping from above average now to below average by next weekend. Surely a good sign?

Yes. Ian Ferguson, who is a BBC meteorologist often provides hints as to the Met office internal guidance on Netweather, and he's been saying that the Met ensembles, which only they see, have been showing a marked change for a few days now.

 

[casbom]

Some might say "well look at what happened in Dec, that went Pete Tong, who's to say this won't as well?" Big differences this time, firstly we're not hoping for a block from the East, we're looking for the block to form to our North/North East. Secondly there was no SSW in Dec, and this is happening right now! So I think we ca safely it WILL turn colder as next week goes on. However (and here's the caveat!) There is no guarantee of snow or prolonged cold as what could happen (and I think this is alluded by BG on TWO) that the main cold weather miss us and hit Europe, and we'll be on the periphery. Still some fascinating output to come over the next few days, expect some stellar runs!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Some might say "well look at what happened in Dec, that went Pete Tong, who's to say this won't as well?" Big differences this time, firstly we're not hoping for a block from the East, we're looking for the block to form to our North/North East. Secondly there was no SSW in Dec, and this is happening right now! So I think we ca safely it WILL turn colder as next week goes on. However (and here's the caveat!) There is no guarantee of snow or prolonged cold as what could happen (and I think this is alluded by BG on TWO) that the main cold weather miss us and hit Europe, and we'll be on the periphery. Still some fascinating output to come over the next few days, expect some stellar runs!

Still looking like the cold is on its way,although the latest output has it cold and wet down here next weekend, although a colder outlook is still possible from the spread of possible outcomes. After that it does look like getting colder.

 

[Flex Your Head]

The BBC now seem to be playing down the possibility of cold weather later this week following their warnings at the weekend. I can't stand this dismal, damp, mild greyness any longer; surely something's got to give?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The BBC now seem to be playing down the possibility of cold weather later this week following their warnings at the weekend. I can't stand this dismal, damp, mild greyness any longer; surely something's got to give?

hhm... the latest model output isn't clear, but from snippets from the Met Office it seems that we might be getting another frustrating near miss.... the GFS enembles are ok, but there's still no clear cross model support, and there's still the chance it may all come to nothing.

This is the GFS ensemble for Worthing (ish). Looks ok, but it could all go Pete Tong

Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS

 

[Papa Lazarou]

the latest GFS gives a little more agreement on the likely outcome, although synoptically there's still a lot of spread.

However, the snow percentage for 'South Sussex' (somewhere close to Worthing) has increased.

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

Love the charts - haven't got a clue what they mean. Does this mean it will be very cold from 12th to 14th with chance of snow and then if it stays cold could be a lot of snow on 17th 18th ?

 

[Vegas Seagull]

The award-winning official "More snow tomorrow?" thread [2012-13 season]

Love the charts - haven't got a clue what they mean. Does this mean it will be very cold from 12th to 14th with chance of snow and then if it stays cold could be a lot of snow on 17th 18th ?

Don't worry, anything beyond 5 days out is guesswork in the UK...No & No are the vey likely answers to your Q's

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Love the charts - haven't got a clue what they mean. Does this mean it will be very cold from 12th to 14th with chance of snow and then if it stays cold could be a lot of snow on 17th 18th ?

It's almost certain that temps will drop from this coming weekend onwards - as the plot below shows:

Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS

Where it goes from there is very much uncertain. The GFS model runs seem to be suggesting that over the 4 days period 13-16th Jan there's a good chance we'll see some snow, with 25-55% snow perecentages.

However, the huge divergence within the ensemble makes even this rather shakey.

In the current setup, i'd put anything beyond about 3 days as un-reliable, particularly when there's a change is weather pattern possibly involved.

 

[ryans father]

It's almost certain that temps will drop from this coming weekend onwards - as the plot below shows:

Meteociel - Diagrammes GEFS

Where it goes from there is very much uncertain. The GFS model runs seem to be suggesting that over the 4 days period 13-16th Jan there's a good chance we'll see some snow, with 25-55% snow perecentages.

However, the huge divergence within the ensemble makes even this rather shakey.

In the current setup, i'd put anything beyond about 3 days as un-reliable, particularly when there's a change is weather pattern possibly involved.

Some extraordinary charts appearing in FI. On a knife edge as always but the anomaly charts certainly seem to point to increasingly cold and wintry over the next 3 weeks. The 06Z GFS is ridiculous

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Some extraordinary charts appearing in FI. On a knife edge as always but the anomaly charts certainly seem to point to increasingly cold and wintry over the next 3 weeks. The 06Z GFS is ridiculous

Yes, were the 6Z GFS to be happen as shown, we'd have snow from about Saturday night until april

But, as the Ensemble shows, there a lot of uncertainty... from Saturday onwards.

The ECM & UKMO need to come on board for me to start ramping this period, as they currently don't support such a cold and sustained evolution.

 

[chucky1973]

so if you had to put a percentage on the chances of Snow, what would yours be...less than 50%?