- Oct 20, 2022
- 6,034
- Thread starter
- #3,441
According to FiveThirtyEight polls, Trump’s popularity since 31 May (the day he was convicted in the Stormy Daniels hush money trial) has soared.
The conviction has reinvigorated Republican support - prior to May 31, Biden was making more percentage gains in the polling:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
I’m not a pollster but I think this comes with a very strong proviso that most of the polls done since then that are reported on 5:38.com have been carried out by rightwing publications and organisations - the sample of poll subjects and the questions asked could be skewed toward an inherent Republican bias in the result. However, it does underlie the fact that most Republican voters see Trump’s conviction as politically motivated- or just don’t care.
For Democrats hoping his conviction will impact on Trump’s election chances, they may need to beat Trump the old fashioned way - with hard work, getting out the vote, focussing on policy differences ( and some might argue, keeping Biden away from the cameras as much as possible) -
www.theguardian.com
On a positive note for Democrats, post-conviction feelings among a small minority of moderate or apathetic swing voters suggests a swing to Biden according to Times polls - that minority of swing voters is the area of voting behaviour to watch in this very tight election - they have largely disproportionate significance on who America choses to be their next President.
In 2020, just 44,000 votes across three battleground states prevented a tie in the electoral college.
In 2024, that margin could be even smaller.
The conviction has reinvigorated Republican support - prior to May 31, Biden was making more percentage gains in the polling:
President: general election Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
I’m not a pollster but I think this comes with a very strong proviso that most of the polls done since then that are reported on 5:38.com have been carried out by rightwing publications and organisations - the sample of poll subjects and the questions asked could be skewed toward an inherent Republican bias in the result. However, it does underlie the fact that most Republican voters see Trump’s conviction as politically motivated- or just don’t care.
For Democrats hoping his conviction will impact on Trump’s election chances, they may need to beat Trump the old fashioned way - with hard work, getting out the vote, focussing on policy differences ( and some might argue, keeping Biden away from the cameras as much as possible) -
Trump’s lead over Biden narrows after conviction, analysis shows
Republicans said verdict would hurt president’s standing, but data looks mostly the same with slight uptick for Biden
www.theguardian.com
On a positive note for Democrats, post-conviction feelings among a small minority of moderate or apathetic swing voters suggests a swing to Biden according to Times polls - that minority of swing voters is the area of voting behaviour to watch in this very tight election - they have largely disproportionate significance on who America choses to be their next President.
In 2020, just 44,000 votes across three battleground states prevented a tie in the electoral college.
In 2024, that margin could be even smaller.
