[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Has anyone seen any recent footage of Prigozhin?

The reason I ask is that one former US military leader suggests he is already dead. See this from Sky News (at 10:17):

Ukraine war latest: Iran transfers 'more than 200 missiles' to Russia; Putin 'cocky and smug', says CIA chief

The US has warned of "dramatic" Iranian escalation - after reports emerged that short-range missiles had been sent from Tehran to Moscow. Putin was branded both "cocky" and "smug" by the CIA director during a joint security conference with the head of MI6.

news.sky.com

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

I have no idea whether the events at Voronezh are real, false, a false flag, some and some, or something else we haven't thought of.

I know I wrote the following a few days ago, but in view of events at Voronezh, I think it is worth repeating.

Several months ago, the Royal United Services Institute predicted that as Russia continues to lose the ground war, it would focus more on other fronts, i.e. propaganda, disinformation and cyber warfare.

Not sure they can up the ante on these

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I have no idea whether the events at Voronezh are real, false, a false flag, some and some, or something else we haven't thought of.

I know I wrote the following a few days ago, but in view of events at Voronezh, I think it is worth repeating.

Several months ago, the Royal United Services Institute predicted that as Russia continues to lose the ground war, it would focus more on other fronts, i.e. propaganda, disinformation and cyber warfare.

They were doing that to the maximum possible level anyway.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Has anyone seen any recent footage of Prigozhin?

The reason I ask is that one former US military leader suggests he is already dead. See this from Sky News (at 10:17):

Ukraine war latest: Iran transfers 'more than 200 missiles' to Russia; Putin 'cocky and smug', says CIA chief

The US has warned of "dramatic" Iranian escalation - after reports emerged that short-range missiles had been sent from Tehran to Moscow. Putin was branded both "cocky" and "smug" by the CIA director during a joint security conference with the head of MI6.

news.sky.com

It has to be a possibility. Or in some sort of dungeon somewhere

 

[Eric the meek]

They were doing that to the maximum possible level anyway.

How do you know that Nobby? How do you know the Russian propaganda and disinformation dials are already turned up to 10?
To assume they are, is to underestimate the enemy. Which I would counsel against.

Think back over the war since the beginning of the invasion. How many times have we thought 'he wouldn't do that would he', and then he goes and does it?
I believe we are moving into the most dangerous and febrile stage of the war.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

How do you know that Nobby? How do you know the Russian propaganda and disinformation dials are already turned up to 10?
To assume they are, is to underestimate the enemy. Which I would counsel against.

Think back over the war since the beginning of the invasion. How many times have we thought 'he wouldn't do that would he', and then he goes and does it?
I believe we are moving into the most dangerous and febrile stage of the war.

Well, I don't know. But I haven't heard anything from the Russian government which sounds vaguely sensible or like it's true since Gorbachev was in charge.

Whether it's cyber attacks, downing airliners, little green men, they've been playing us as much as they can for years and my oninion is that they've been holding nothing back all this time.

 

[Eric the meek]

0

Well, I don't know. But I haven't heard anything from the Russian government which sounds vaguely sensible or like it's true since Gorbachev was in charge.

Whether it's cyber attacks, downing airliners, little green men, they've been playing us as much as they can for years and my oninion is that they've been holding nothing back all this time.

Indeed. They will continue to do so until something happens that stops them.

My view is that Putin looks to history as a guide to the future. So he is most afraid of his own people. This is why he controls the media, optics and everyone around him. As his control becomes threatened ever more, we should expect even stranger decision making, as he battles to save his own skin first and Russia second.

 

[peterward]

Has anyone seen any recent footage of Prigozhin?

The reason I ask is that one former US military leader suggests he is already dead. See this from Sky News (at 10:17):

Ukraine war latest: Iran transfers 'more than 200 missiles' to Russia; Putin 'cocky and smug', says CIA chief

The US has warned of "dramatic" Iranian escalation - after reports emerged that short-range missiles had been sent from Tehran to Moscow. Putin was branded both "cocky" and "smug" by the CIA director during a joint security conference with the head of MI6.

news.sky.com

He's not been seen in public (or broadcast pictures) since he left Rostov. Couple of audio recordings since.

It says he might be dead or imprisoned?

It's speculation and not Intelligence based I think

 

[raymondo]

Has anyone seen any recent footage of Prigozhin?

The reason I ask is that one former US military leader suggests he is already dead. See this from Sky News (at 10:17):

Ukraine war latest: Iran transfers 'more than 200 missiles' to Russia; Putin 'cocky and smug', says CIA chief

The US has warned of "dramatic" Iranian escalation - after reports emerged that short-range missiles had been sent from Tehran to Moscow. Putin was branded both "cocky" and "smug" by the CIA director during a joint security conference with the head of MI6.

news.sky.com

It's his speculation...but may of course be correct. Which would beg the question of...why did stupid Prigozhin trust the discussion with Lukashit and Putin... should have kept marching mate. Unless they really did have guns to the heads of his family .
Can't believe I just wasted 2 mins typing this: I don't care about any of the Russian or Wagner leaders, and many of their citizens.
PS no offence to you @Eric the meek !!

 

[raymondo]

This is a section of a short article from 'open Democracy' on the outcome of the NATO meeting in Vilnius.
I think it's interesting because it highlights (I know we've mentioned it on this thread a number of times) that Russia is incentivised to continue the war in either case (NATO promise, or NATO reluctance). So, the situation is only likely to change with either a resounding, painful defeat for Russia...or regime change that also changes their politics.

""Escalation fear​

Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO is surrounded by fears over Russia’s reaction, and how that could influence its military posturing.

On the other hand, “it's hard to imagine any worse threats from Russia than we [have] already experienced,” says Serhiy Kudelia, a Ukrainian political science professor who teaches in the US. “Aggression [has] happened even though we have not received any guarantees from NATO, or any timeline.”

One camp of experts and observers believes that giving Ukraine a “clear timeline” or pledge that it could join NATO after the war is over “will only incentivise Russia to keep fighting,” he added.

But others say that taking Ukraine’s NATO membership off the table gives Russia reasons to keep fighting as it achieves its goal of controlling its neighbour’s foreign policy.

“I think that we have unfortunately reached a stage where Russia is going to continue fighting this war until there is either some kind of political agreement or some significant development in the field,” said Sporrer who led the ‘Human Dimension Department’ at the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine.

In any case, it has become clear that Russia is at least capable of postponing Ukraine's NATO membership, says Kudelia.

The next NATO summit is in 2024 in Washington – and Ukraine has already signalled that it is pinning its hopes on being able to join the alliance at that meeting.""

 

[Eric the meek]

It's his speculation...but may of course be correct. Which would beg the question of...why did stupid Prigozhin trust the discussion with Lukashit and Putin... should have kept marching mate. Unless they really did have guns to the heads of his family .
Can't believe I just wasted 2 mins typing this: I don't care about any of the Russian or Wagner leaders, and many of their citizens.
PS no offence to you @Eric the meek !!

No offence taken! You are free to care about, and not care about, anything you choose!

In the absence of any reported sightings or intelligence, I assume it is indeed speculation. But that's what happens when there is a dearth of factual information.
I don't care about their leaders either, other than the obvious. But I would be interested if Prigozhin was already dead or in prison, and Putin has neglected to share the news with the Russian people.

 

[raymondo]

No offence taken! You are free to care about, and not care about, anything you choose!

In the absence of any reported sightings or intelligence, I assume it is indeed speculation. But that's what happens when there is a dearth of factual information.
I don't care about their leaders either, other than the obvious. But I would be interested if Prigozhin was already dead or in prison, and Putin has neglected to share the news with the Russian people.

Sure, I agree with you. I just got annoyed with myself for speculating about speculation (if you know what I mean). Wouldn't it be nice eh to see proof of the passing of a number of their elite... and your final sentence would indeed be interesting

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

This is a section of a short article from 'open Democracy' on the outcome of the NATO meeting in Vilnius.
I think it's interesting because it highlights (I know we've mentioned it on this thread a number of times) that Russia is incentivised to continue the war in either case (NATO promise, or NATO reluctance). So, the situation is only likely to change with either a resounding, painful defeat for Russia...or regime change that also changes their politics.

""Escalation fear​

Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO is surrounded by fears over Russia’s reaction, and how that could influence its military posturing.

On the other hand, “it's hard to imagine any worse threats from Russia than we [have] already experienced,” says Serhiy Kudelia, a Ukrainian political science professor who teaches in the US. “Aggression [has] happened even though we have not received any guarantees from NATO, or any timeline.”

One camp of experts and observers believes that giving Ukraine a “clear timeline” or pledge that it could join NATO after the war is over “will only incentivise Russia to keep fighting,” he added.

But others say that taking Ukraine’s NATO membership off the table gives Russia reasons to keep fighting as it achieves its goal of controlling its neighbour’s foreign policy.

“I think that we have unfortunately reached a stage where Russia is going to continue fighting this war until there is either some kind of political agreement or some significant development in the field,” said Sporrer who led the ‘Human Dimension Department’ at the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine.

In any case, it has become clear that Russia is at least capable of postponing Ukraine's NATO membership, says Kudelia.

The next NATO summit is in 2024 in Washington – and Ukraine has already signalled that it is pinning its hopes on being able to join the alliance at that meeting.""

I don't think that Ukraine joining or not joining NATO is having any bearing on Russia continuing to fight. I think Putin continues, because he know that his legacy will be ruined and he'll likely be murdered if he loses the war and Crimea and Donbas are once again Ukranian.

All this stuff about the eastward creeping of NATO (and denazifying Ukraine) was only ever the excuse of Z apologists. IMO Putin did this because he wanted to be remembered alongside Peter the Great.

 

[peterward]

I don't think that Ukraine joining or not joining NATO is having any bearing on Russia continuing to fight. I think Putin continues, because he know that his legacy will be ruined and he'll likely be murdered if he loses the war and Crimea and Donbas are once again Ukranian.

All this stuff about the eastward creeping of NATO (and denazifying Ukraine) was only ever the excuse of Z apologists. IMO Putin did this because he wanted to be remembered alongside Peter the Great.

Part that for sure, part never got over loss of empire and colapse of soviet union, and part to simply steal and rape Ukraines resources for himself, a lot of coal, grain, steel and oil/gas offshore.

 

[raymondo]

Part that for sure, part never got over loss of empire and colapse of soviet union, and part to simply steal and rape Ukraines resources for himself, a lot of coal, grain, steel and oil/gas offshore.

Yes, all of those parts, plus also I think he was/remains genuinely afraid of having a growing (if imperfect) democracy on his doorstep.

 

[sparkie]

Sweden and Finland were never going to join NATO.

Well done Judo Midget in strengthening NATO

 

[sparkie]

Putin has made one of the biggest strategic errors in recorded history.

Blunderskrieg indeed.

Now the job needs to be finished and his complete and utter defeat ensured.

 

[driddles]

Differentiating between reliable and unreliable accounts in this war is near impossible

So today Reporting from Ukraine on YouTube (excellent daily watch - thanks peter ward) said that he uses this site https://ground.news/interest/ukraine to filter news as they give stats on how many places are reporting a story and if they lean left or right and are large news agencies or small websites. Then he uses his logic of russian sites will cover anything bad in Ukraine and vice versa. The site also gives these details for other countries.

 

[raymondo]

Scary...

 

[schmunk]

It's not "voting for Putin", though, despite the allure of the hyperbole.

In reality it's voting for "why should mah goddamn taxes be spent on furriners...??!?!?!?"