[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[usernamed]

Exactly, we’ll soon find out if he is willing to call what may also be a bluff by Biden

We have to act. Sitting on our hands here is unconscionable. Provided we don’t travel into mainland Russia itself, there is no reason why allies cannot help repel invaders from a sovereign nation if they’ve been invited.

It does look as if the wheels have (quite literally) fallen off the ground assault, and the Russians are just trying to bomb and shell cities into submission from a distance.

 

[vegster]

Exactly, we’ll soon find out if he is willing to call what may also be a bluff by Biden

The ideal would be Putin’s removal and replacement by a more considered leader. That is also questionable given some of the suggested alternatives.

Yes, important to realise that this is the responsibility of one man only, I really don't think that the majority or even a minority want this war, they have just been spoon-fed lies and propaganda since he came to power. We need another Gorbachev, someone who the world could work with. Ordinary Russians just want a better life like all of us and if we could open our arms and trade as equals they would see the benefits rather than a couple of hundred oligarch crooks.

 

[LamieRobertson]

We have to act. Sitting on our hands here is unconscionable. Provided we don’t travel into mainland Russia itself, there is no reason why allies cannot help repel invaders from a sovereign nation if they’ve been invited.

It does look as if the wheels have (quite literally) fallen off the ground assault, and the Russians are just trying to bomb and shell cities into submission from a distance.

Well….pack your bags then and let us know how you get on

 

[usernamed]

[MENTION=11350]LamieRobertson[/MENTION]

If I had service experience, knew what I was doing, and wasn’t a middle-aged bloke with responsibility for young kids then I absolutely would.

I fear I’d be told to wait for the Home Guard to re-form if I tried to present myself at an enrolment office.

Soldiering isn’t a game for amateurs (especially those like me who have limited enthusiasm for firearms and whose fitness would best be described as ‘adequate for civilian life’)

It doesn’t change the fact that if we don’t stop Putin now, we will probably need to stop him later, when he’s had time to learn the lessons of what has gone wrong in this campaign, regroup and resupply.

All the while his bluff remains uncalled, we live under his shadow, which is playing his game by his rules.

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, important to realise that this is the responsibility of one man only, I really don't think that the majority or even a minority want this war, they have just been spoon-fed lies and propaganda since he came to power. We need another Gorbachev, someone who the world could work with. Ordinary Russians just want a better life like all of us and if we could open our arms and trade as equals they would see the benefits rather than a couple of hundred oligarch crooks.

Compare your comment with just a month ago, when we were staring in disbelief as the Russians had actually invaded a peaceful neighbouring country.
Now we are discussing regime change in the Kremlin.

The Russian war machine has stalled, Russia has suffered huge military losses, it is more isolated, its actions have unified the west, sanctions are disabling the Russian economy, Putin has not 'demilitarised' Ukraine but solidified it, and there is more NATO along Russia's western flank, not less. All of it the very opposite of his objectives.

He has also showcased the weaknesses of the Russian war machine to the whole world, and to his near neighbours, who he has bullied and threatened for decades.

All in all, an unmitigated disaster for Putin, his inner circle and for Russia.

 

[Triggaaar]

He has also showcased the weaknesses of the Russian war machine to the whole world, and to his near neighbours, who he has bullied and threatened for decades.

While everything you've written is true, the fact still remains that his poor military is still capable of flattening an entire country, even without nuclear weapons.

 

[vegster]

Compare your comment with just a month ago, when we were staring in disbelief as the Russians had actually invaded a peaceful neighbouring country.
Now we are discussing regime change in the Kremlin.

The Russian war machine has stalled, Russia has suffered huge military losses, it is more isolated, its actions have unified the west, sanctions are disabling the Russian economy, Putin has not 'demilitarised' Ukraine but solidified it, and there is more NATO along Russia's western flank, not less. All of it the very opposite of his objectives.

He has also showcased the weaknesses of the Russian war machine to the whole world, and to his near neighbours, who he has bullied and threatened for decades.

All in all, an unmitigated disaster for Putin, his inner circle and for Russia.

Yes, he might have to spread his army, police and FSB quite thinly from now on if domestic and provincial protests mount... Georgia for instance....

 

[usernamed]

While everything you've written is true, the fact still remains that his poor military is still capable of flattening an entire country, even without nuclear weapons.

This is my fear, that he’s stopped even trying to take/occupy cities in any meaningful way, but will just keep shelling them into dust.

 

[Eric the meek]

While everything you've written is true, the fact still remains that his poor military is still capable of flattening an entire country, even without nuclear weapons.

I don't think it is as clear cut as that.

Take a look at this.

'Russian missiles failing at high rate - report'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60856533 at 06:03.

I also read elsewhere this morning (sorry, I can't find it now) that suggested that Russia are running out of missiles...

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

I don't think it is as clear cut as that.

Take a look at this.

'Russian missiles failing at high rate - report'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60856533 at 06:03.

I also read elsewhere this morning (sorry, I can't find it now) that suggested that Russia are running out of missiles...

Precision bombs is what they think they are running out of, which is not necessarily a good thing, as they will then be forced to use less sophisticated bombs that have less accuracy resulting in more damage and loss of life.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericte...aling-its-short-of-munitions/?sh=37e368a632ac

 

[Lethargic]

We have to act. Sitting on our hands here is unconscionable. Provided we don’t travel into mainland Russia itself, there is no reason why allies cannot help repel invaders from a sovereign nation if they’ve been invited.

It does look as if the wheels have (quite literally) fallen off the ground assault, and the Russians are just trying to bomb and shell cities into submission from a distance.

I understand your sentiment but war really is not that simple, it is a complex chaotic mess at the best of times, just as the Russian conscripts didn't realise they were in Ukraine, NATO forces could stray into Russia. Putin will be coming more and more paranoid by the day he will be aware things are not going his way and at some point he will realise there is only 1 way out he could do anything, one of the keys is to provide an "out" for him no matter how inconceivable that seems.

There will be many things going on behind the scenes that we are not aware of, don't think for one minute that just because the are no NATO troops in Ukraine we are doing nothing.

Having served in Germany during the 1980's our biggest fear was of chemical and biological weapons, they are horrendous and completely indiscriminate civilians can shelter underground from the shelling but chemical weapons will not be stopped.

 

[Eric the meek]

Precision bombs is what they think they are running out of, which is not necessarily a good thing, as they will then be forced to use less sophisticated bombs that have less accuracy resulting in more damage and loss of life.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericte...aling-its-short-of-munitions/?sh=37e368a632ac

Yes, agreed. It's a good article as well. I note your concerns.

Just like the tank factory in Chelyabinsk having to stop production as it can no longer get the components it needs from west, so the same thing applies to precision guided missiles:

'The Russian side he says has more pressing production capacity issues. The most significant is Russia’s ability to source the sophisticated electronics needed to make precision munitions work. Many of these come from countries like Germany that have now cut off sales of such systems to Putin.'

Another example of how sanctions are affecting the Russian war machine. All the more reason to keep the sanctions in place for a very long time, or until a real regime change has taken place and been verified on a range of measures.

 

[raymondo]

While everything you've written is true, the fact still remains that his poor military is still capable of flattening an entire country, even without nuclear weapons.

It is indeed...it's brute force, just high numbers of bombs/missiles.

 

[Si Gull]

I don't think it is as clear cut as that.

Take a look at this.

'Russian missiles failing at high rate - report'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60856533 at 06:03.

I also read elsewhere this morning (sorry, I can't find it now) that suggested that Russia are running out of missiles...

That may well be the case but you only have to see the complete devastation in cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol to know that Putin has more than enough in his armoury. He's completely flattened whole neighbourhoods that will take years to rebuild, if they ever get the chance.

I guess I'm just naive but I find it incredible that we, as in the rest of the world, have allowed what is essentially one man to cause such carnage. It's not like the warning signs weren't there.

 

[peterward]

Couple of weeks old now, but came across an interesting video From Igor Gurkin (Strelkhov) the Russian commander of the Donbas invasion in 2014, and a facsict Russian nationlist. This was 2 weeks ago too (not much has changed since then)



And this is his latest where he admits its really not going well, have to turn on subtitles and auto translate to English.

 

[usernamed]

I understand your sentiment but war really is not that simple, it is a complex chaotic mess at the best of times, just as the Russian conscripts didn't realise they were in Ukraine, NATO forces could stray into Russia. Putin will be coming more and more paranoid by the day he will be aware things are not going his way and at some point he will realise there is only 1 way out he could do anything, one of the keys is to provide an "out" for him no matter how inconceivable that seems.

There will be many things going on behind the scenes that we are not aware of, don't think for one minute that just because the are no NATO troops in Ukraine we are doing nothing.

Having served in Germany during the 1980's our biggest fear was of chemical and biological weapons, they are horrendous and completely indiscriminate civilians can shelter underground from the shelling but chemical weapons will not be stopped.

I wish Putin would take a face-saving out if he is going to genuinely stop interfering in Western politics, and waging war on his neighbours. However, is there any trust, anywhere (even among his allies) in Putin’s regime? They’ve already proven themselves serial liars who will disregard whatever they’ve signed previously if it gets in the way of their geopolitical ambitions.

Their spokespeople and diplomats will argue with straight faces that white is black, even when faced with incontrovertible proof that this is not so. A document signed by Putin or the current Russian regime is not worth the paper it’s written on.

The priority is absolutely to stop the conflict in Ukraine, and the last thing I want is for the West to try and impose regime change on Russia, but I do wish Russia would reform itself into something less hostile and disagreeable (to its own citizens as well as internationally) - that feels unlikely while Russia is under its current leadership.

My fear is that the best case scenario of Putin taking an out and withdrawing troops, is only going to be a prelude to something better organised and worse in the future, if his regime remains unchanged.

 

[Igzilla]

This is shocking, and compelling. Warning - does contain scenes that you may find upsetting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOmYi96cU1M&list=WL&index=6

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I was just looking up some Molchat Doma to put on a music thread and came across this message from the band from Belarus.

(and some tears).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxKDdfCIZkQ

 

[peterward]

I was just looking up some Molchat Doma to put on a music thread and came across this message from the band from Belarus.

(and some tears).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxKDdfCIZkQ

When you go hunting for obscure, left field niche music, you have no idea what you might find!

 

[Lethargic]

I wish Putin would take a face-saving out if he is going to genuinely stop interfering in Western politics, and waging war on his neighbours. However, is there any trust, anywhere (even among his allies) in Putin’s regime? They’ve already proven themselves serial liars who will disregard whatever they’ve signed previously if it gets in the way of their geopolitical ambitions.

Their spokespeople and diplomats will argue with straight faces that white is black, even when faced with incontrovertible proof that this is not so. A document signed by Putin or the current Russian regime is not worth the paper it’s written on.

The priority is absolutely to stop the conflict in Ukraine, and the last thing I want is for the West to try and impose regime change on Russia, but I do wish Russia would reform itself into something less hostile and disagreeable (to its own citizens as well as internationally) - that feels unlikely while Russia is under its current leadership.

My fear is that the best case scenario of Putin taking an out and withdrawing troops, is only going to be a prelude to something better organised and worse in the future, if his regime remains unchanged.

Unfortunately all true and there were similar conversations at the end of the cold war when we thought things were starting to improve and here we are. The only real change will have to come from the Russia people but not sure how long it will take to change the ingrained attitudes of the Russian masses who have been brainwashed for 100 years.