[Football] Premier League / Football League attempts to finish the season

[Springal]

Given the confused message from Johnson on Sunday and the 'reaction' to it, with roads packed and public transport busy again, I'd not be that confident that the cases / deaths will still be declining in a month. Sadly.

Agreed - doing my food shop yesterday I saw a lot of workers vans on the road with 2 or 3 people in them. I'm pretty sure not all were in the same household

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

We still have a 7-day average of new cases at around 4,500. This number is declining VERY slowly (despite the fact that we've been consistently testing around 60,000 people a day for the whole of May). In Germany, Spain and France the average number of new cases per day is around 1,000.

The death rate is obviously declining, but there are still more than 40,000 deaths in the UK - significantly more than in any comparably-sized country. Excess Deaths this year is around 50,000 - way more than in any comparable country. There is no proper contact tracing system in operation. It just seems crazy to be contemplating playing football at the moment.

This is confusing me as well. Initially I thought it was because we were doing more tests, but I’m not sure that’s the case now. Has there been any other explanation for it?

 

[Gwylan]

As alluded to in post #1382 you mean [emoji102]

Blimey, I wasn't going to look for posts nearly a 100 pages ago!

But yes, as I understand it, when neutral venues were part of the thinking, the clubs would all have a single base - in that case, if one player tests positive the whole team would have to isolate.

If, as apppears to be the case, neutral venues are off the agenda than a player testing positive would not mean the whole team isolating.

But as everything at the moment is on hearsay and conjecture, who knows what's going to happen?

 

[Surf's Up]

We still have a 7-day average of new cases at around 4,500. This number is declining VERY slowly (despite the fact that we've been consistently testing around 60,000 people a day for the whole of May). In Germany, Spain and France the average number of new cases per day is around 1,000.

The death rate is obviously declining, but there are still more than 40,000 deaths in the UK - significantly more than in any comparably-sized country. Excess Deaths this year is around 50,000 - way more than in any comparable country. There is no proper contact tracing system in operation. It just seems crazy to be contemplating playing football at the moment.

£££££££££££££££££££

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

The plan is to re-start in one months time. The projections are that cases / deaths will be much lower, and guideline will be in place, by then.

And if those projections turn out to be an under estimate then you will accept it is right to end Project Restart ?

 

[Jim in the West]

£££££££££££££££££££

Indeed - and Boris was saying yesterday that it would boost the nation's morale. But - SURPRISE! - it won't. YouGov did a poll yesterday and found that 73% of respondents said resuming footie will NOT boost their morale. Funnily enough, most people have more important things on their mind.

[Interestingly, there is NO difference in responses when analysed by political party, or Remain/Leave, or social status. There IS a difference when you look at Gender - ie, blokes are quite a bit keener than women]

 

[jimhigham]

Indeed - and Boris was saying yesterday that it would boost the nation's morale. But - SURPRISE! - it won't. YouGov did a poll yesterday and found that 73% of respondents said resuming footie will NOT boost their morale. Funnily enough, most people have more important things on their mind.

Absolutely. If football was resuming under normal circumstances and with full stadia, this would be a morale booster. A highly artificial resumption of fixtures will only serve to remind us all of what we’ve lost.

This season is dead to me. If it ends, it ends. If we’re relegated, I won’t honestly care. It will be a crying shame for Tony and everybody at the club for all the effort they have put in but, to me, this season is now nothing more than a charade.

 

[dazzer6666]

If one player tests positive, it seems most realistic for that player to isolate, and continue to be testing accepting that there will be 'false positive' results so further tests will be useful. The Government advice was to isolate for 7 days or as long as the symptoms continue, with those that the person lives with, in their household, isolating for 14 days.

There is no requirement for work colleagues to isolate. Plenty of businesses have been operating throughout this saga, many of which involve people working at close quarters. There has never been a requirement for work colleagues to isolate.

I do not believe it is a workable option to suggest that if one or a couple of players test positive the whole squad (and staff?) go into isolation for 14 days. Any league which enacts that strategy will struggle to conclude their fixtures. I am aware of the Dresden situation, I am not sure how that will pan out. They seem to think that it will not jepordise completion of the league https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...mant-season-restart-dynamo-dresden-quarantine

I know there is an overall virus situation and that virus is likely to be around to some level for many months. The projections are that by 12 June, the proposed re-start date, the numbers will be much lower.


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Even if there is still a higher level than this come June, the real life risk to young healthy players with daily health support and regular testing is very low. The authorities and Governments know this which is why most leagues are preparing to re-start in May / June.

If that player tests positive, say after a game or the day after a game, anyone he came into contact with in the previous day or two at least (squad, opponents, physios etc) will also need to isolate. How do you think track and trace is going to work away from football ? It's not about whether it's a workable solution - it's simply necessary to prevent further spreading. The league absolutely will struggle to complete it's fixtures.

 

[wellquickwoody]

But ignoring all the flannel about money, role models etc etc as of this week government policy is for employers to encourage people back to work where possible. They're not being asked to do anything that other industries aren't also doing.

Contact sport, end of discussion.

 

[drew]

I do not believe it is a workable option to suggest that if one or a couple of players test positive the whole squad (and staff?) go into isolation for 14 days. Any league which enacts that strategy will struggle to conclude their fixtures. I am aware of the Dresden situation, I am not sure how that will pan out. They seem to think that it will not jepordise completion of the league https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...am and, more importantly, any team they play.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

And if those projections turn out to be an under estimate then you will accept it is right to end Project Restart ?

Personally I think young healthy players are at very low risk. If the overall spread level is much lower I guess that would reduce the chance of an individual player catching it to some extent. It the overall level is a bit higher than projected come 12 June I still believe they would be at low risk.

In the same way that all the people Government are advising to return to work, Government believe are at low risk. And that's right now. It is projected to be lower in a month's time and based on the science and the fact we are now on the other side of the curve which is a point of exponential decrease, based upon my admittedly limited assessment I cannot see a realistic scenario where it will not be much lower by 12 June.

 

[Mellotron]

Surely the overriding requirement is that it is safe. If it is safe and workable then they can restart. If it is workable and not safe then there should be no restart. If one player has covid and has been in contact with his team either in training and/or a match, then obviously they need to isolate the group as others may then carry it asymptomatically and infect others in the team and, more importantly, any team they play.

It's just not binary though is it, safety? How safe? It is never going to be 100% safe - nothing any of us do relating to being in public will be 100% safe, not for months or even a year or so.

Realistically - given the extensive and regular testing that will be in place - Premier League players & staff are going to be in a far, far safer situation than you or I.

 

[atomised]

Absolutely. If football was resuming under normal circumstances and with full stadia, this would be a morale booster. A highly artificial resumption of fixtures will only serve to remind us all of what we’ve lost.

This season is dead to me. If it ends, it ends. If we’re relegated, I won’t honestly care. It will be a crying shame for Tony and everybody at the club for all the effort they have put in but, to me, this season is now nothing more than a charade.

Exactly where I am now no Interest whatsoever in a box ticking money making exercise. It's not football as we know it

 

[Acker79]

Personally I think young healthy players are at very low risk. If the overall spread level is much lower I guess that would reduce the chance of an individual player catching it to some extent. It the overall level is a bit higher than projected come 12 June I still believe they would be at low risk.

In the same way that all the people Government are advising to return to work, Government believe are at low risk. And that's right now. It is projected to be lower in a month's time and based on the science and the fact we are now on the other side of the curve which is a point of exponential decrease, based upon my admittedly limited assessment I cannot see a realistic scenario where it will not be much lower by 12 June.

'Young healthy players' aren't at low risk of catching or spreading the virus. They are more likely to have an easier time of it if they contract the virus, their symptoms are more likely to be mild, they are at a low risk of dying from it, but it doesn't mean they are unlikely to catch the virus or, more importantly, spread it. To their families, their friends, the older, less fit people whose responsibility it is to clear up and lock up the ground when they've all gone, spread it to the local petrol station when he goes to fill up his car, or fellow shoppers when popping to the supermarket (or spreading it to the people they send to the supermarket for them).

Most models predict a second peak. When the populace starts coming out of their house more, there is likely to be another spell of people getting infected, potentially a large number of them. The numbers are declining because of the lockdown. An illustrative, albeit simplistic, analogy would be: it's raining. Lots of people are getting wet, some have brollies and rain coats, and doing ok, but the number of wet people has mostly stopped growing. So everyone can now leave their houses. Oh look, now more people are getting wet.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

If that player tests positive, say after a game or the day after a game, anyone he came into contact with in the previous day or two at least (squad, opponents, physios etc) will also need to isolate. How do you think track and trace is going to work away from football ? It's not about whether it's a workable solution - it's simply necessary to prevent further spreading. The league absolutely will struggle to complete it's fixtures.

The kind of isolation measures we have been subject to as the general public have in part been due to lack of testing. If players are being tested daily and keep having no positive result they do not need to be isolated.

So-

A. Players are at very low risk as young healthy individuals with a high level of health care and attention.

B. They will be tested regularly and if they test positive will get immediate attention.

So this is why they can get back to playing on the 12th of Jun without high risk and why whole teams would not need to isolate.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Absolutely. If football was resuming under normal circumstances and with full stadia, this would be a morale booster. A highly artificial resumption of fixtures will only serve to remind us all of what we’ve lost.

This season is dead to me. If it ends, it ends. If we’re relegated, I won’t honestly care. It will be a crying shame for Tony and everybody at the club for all the effort they have put in but, to me, this season is now nothing more than a charade.

The same for me.

I am happy that after 105 games in the PL we are not in a relegation position.

I'm not going to watch or care about this 9 game rump of the season under different rules.

If we go down, very sad for Tony and everyone at the club, and when I start watching again it could maybe be in a different league.

It would feel strange and unfair, but we get on with it.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

All this social distancing talk for Premier League players is crazy and it can't and won't happen. We've all done a pre-season, you've turned up thinking you're fitter than your team mates will be, the fitness starts and you're puffed but glad you did a bit over Summer and then the friendlies start and you're way off the pace. Premier League footballers are going to need five-a-side, grid ball retention, and other close proximity skills practice before they even start their own 11 v 11 matches, way before a few friendlies and definitely before they go anywhere near a competitive match.

 

[crodonilson]

'Young healthy players' aren't at low risk of catching or spreading the virus. They are more likely to have an easier time of it if they contract the virus, their symptoms are more likely to be mild, they are at a low risk of dying from it, but it doesn't mean they are unlikely to catch the virus or, more importantly, spread it. To their families, their friends, the older, less fit people whose responsibility it is to clear up and lock up the ground when they've all gone, spread it to the local petrol station when he goes to fill up his car, or fellow shoppers when popping to the supermarket (or spreading it to the people they send to the supermarket for them).

Most models predict a second peak. When the populace starts coming out of their house more, there is likely to be another spell of people getting infected, potentially a large number of them. The numbers are declining because of the lockdown. An illustrative, albeit simplistic, analogy would be: it's raining. Lots of people are getting wet, some have brollies and rain coats, and doing ok, but the number of wet people has mostly stopped growing. So everyone can now leave their houses. Oh look, now more people are getting wet.

They will be tested twice a week though so the chances of a player having Covid-19 and playing in a game, being tested so regularly will be much lower, also their risk to the general population like petrol forecourts etc will probably be a lot lower by traning and being tested becuase they will be able to self isolate if the show up as having it even if asympotmatic whereas they currently wouldn't know if they have it when they are not playing/training but still might be filling up their car going to the supermarket etc or ignoring the lockdown like Grealish/Walker etc.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

But ignoring all the flannel about money, role models etc etc as of this week government policy is for employers to encourage people back to work where possible. They're not being asked to do anything that other industries aren't also doing.

Yes, 'where possible' being the operative word. Boris said yesterday 'with appropriate PPE, social distancing and other measures'. None of that is possible on a football field.

So footballers will need to take special measures. This will include daily testing (of the sort not available to Joe Public). What entitles them to that, other than their designated role as the Nation' Entertainment.

If I were someone at risk, in jeopardy because people not tested but infectious are ignoring social distancing, as is happening all over the country, and I didn't happen to like footy, let alone consider that footballers are the most very special of key workers, entitled to the very best screeing and indeed luxury isolation conditions for the duration of the end of the season, I would be monumentally displeased. I would call it a travesty and a disgrace.

Telling footballers to get back to work like everyone else? I seriously don't think you have quite grasped the nature of the situation

 

[dazzer6666]

The kind of isolation measures we have been subject to as the general public have in part been due to lack of testing. If players are being tested daily and keep having no positive result they do not need to be isolated.

So-

A. Players are at very low risk as young healthy individuals with a high level of health care and attention.

B. They will be tested regularly and if they test positive will get immediate attention.

So this is why they can get back to playing on the 12th of Jun without high risk and why whole teams would not need to isolate.

I don't think so.

Test tonight - negative
Play tomorrow
Test Thursday - positive

When was player first positive ? You won't know.

Maybe yesterday, maybe just before testing, maybe just after............but certainly possibly before he played, whereupon he'll have come into contact with others whilst infected........who in turn may not test positive for a few days. In the meantime he's been back to his family, the others he's been in contact with have been back to theirs, he's popped to the shops....etc. Exponential spreading.