**NSC early Weather Warning - possible Snow on Friday**

[Papa Lazarou]

Could you please do a waether report for hereford!!!!

Well, the 06hours GFS run has heavy snow for Hereford on Friday morning, but this is at the expense of us getting snow.. in other words the low is further north west, giving us milder conditions (at least for a while).

And it looks like rain for Amsterdam, at least at first.

 

[grummitts gloves]

Papa, if you had to say out of 10, what do you reckon for more snow Friday ?

 

[Fourteenth Eye]

Well, the 06hours GFS run has heavy snow for Hereford on Friday morning, but this is at the expense of us getting snow.. in other words the low is further north west, giving us milder conditions (at least for a while).

Well lets hope you are wrong on this one. We really dont need another game postponed

 

[severnside gull]

on that pretty map thing that shows snowflakes over sussex, what are the grey blobs over hereford (and bewdley as it happens)?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Papa, if you had to say out of 10, what do you reckon for more snow Friday ?

Well... this looks like being another borderline situation... with the colder air to the West.

So, the further east you are, the longer it takes for the cold air to dig down behind the little low pressure that runs in from the west, and exits into the near continent late Friday.

Of course, such situations are the ones that produce the heavist snowfalls, as the warmer air contains more moisture, so more intense precipitation.

I'd say we're 6/10 for this one at the moment, although for most it will start as rain (as the fronts are forecast to push inland initially)... perhaps the downs might see snow for a longer time.

The key is the position of the warm from here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_72.jpg

As the milder air is to the south of it.

By Friday it's away from our area, and then the key is the occluded from (shown below), which hopefully will be colder air.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/charts/FSXX00T_84.jpg

Despite the wobble shown by the latest GFS model run, it's encouraging that the Met Office output is showing this, as they factor in all of the global model output (including their own).

It could all go wrong though... we shall see.


Papa

 

[Papa Lazarou]

on that pretty map thing that shows snowflakes over sussex, what are the grey blobs over hereford (and bewdley as it happens)?

Cloud cover... I think that symbol is 7 oktas of cloud (i.e. 7/8ths cover).

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

6/10 is good enough for me Papa, just keep on Owning Glover and we'll all be happy.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

6/10 is good enough for me Papa, just keep on Owning Glover and we'll all be happy.

Thank you, but that is of course not my intention. We all have different skills / interests to bring to the party.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

30 minutes ago the Met Office issued weather warnings for Friday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html


London & South East England:
Brighton + Hove
E Sussex
Isle of Wight
Kent
Medway
Milton Keynes
W Sussex
Heavy Snow & Drifting Snow Fri 6 Feb
There is a moderate risk of a severe event continuing to affect parts of southern and eastern England. Further falls of snow are likely that may give additional accumulations of 2 to 5cm, perhaps 5-10cm locally. Drifting could occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds.

Issued at: 1202 Tue 3 Feb

London & South East England:
Bracknell Forest
Buckinghamshire
Gtr London
Hampshire
Oxfordshire
Portsmouth
Reading
Slough
Southampton
Surrey
W Berkshire
Windsor + Maidenhead
Wokingham
Drifting Snow & Heavy Snow Fri 6 Feb
There is a low risk of exceptionally heavy snow across parts of central and southeastern England continuing from Thursday giving further accumulations, with perhaps more than 25cm locally for the whole event. Drifting may occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds. As yet there remains considerable uncertainty in the areas more likely to be affected but further updates will be issued on the web as the situation becomes clearer.

Issued at: 1207 Tue 3 Feb

 

[pasty]

30 minutes ago the Met Office issued weather warnings for Friday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html


London & South East England:
Brighton + Hove
E Sussex
Isle of Wight
Kent
Medway
Milton Keynes
W Sussex
Heavy Snow & Drifting Snow Fri 6 Feb
There is a moderate risk of a severe event continuing to affect parts of southern and eastern England. Further falls of snow are likely that may give additional accumulations of 2 to 5cm, perhaps 5-10cm locally. Drifting could occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds.

Issued at: 1202 Tue 3 Feb

London & South East England:
Bracknell Forest
Buckinghamshire
Gtr London
Hampshire
Oxfordshire
Portsmouth
Reading
Slough
Southampton
Surrey
W Berkshire
Windsor + Maidenhead
Wokingham
Drifting Snow & Heavy Snow Fri 6 Feb
There is a low risk of exceptionally heavy snow across parts of central and southeastern England continuing from Thursday giving further accumulations, with perhaps more than 25cm locally for the whole event. Drifting may occur in fresh or strong north or northeast winds. As yet there remains considerable uncertainty in the areas more likely to be affected but further updates will be issued on the web as the situation becomes clearer.

Issued at: 1207 Tue 3 Feb

Yeah yeah, but is my flight going to be okay from Gatwick at 9am on Sunday ?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Yeah yeah, but is my flight going to be okay from Gatwick at 9am on Sunday ?

Well, Saturday is now forecast to be a little wintry:

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=crawley&day=4

And Sunday dry but cold

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=crawley&day=5

So, I'd guess the airport will be open.. .as long as you can get there..

 

[Garage_Doors]

Dear Papa,
( In a JS voice) Can you fix it for me ( i'm mean my kids) to have snow on Friday.

You are an ace forecaster and thank you for sharing it :yahoo:

 

[beardy gull]

Papa. This snow Friday. Is it more likely Thursday night/Friday morning or Friday night/Saturday morning?? Or can't you be that accurate yet??

 

[Taybha]

If only mr fish had all these gizmos i would still own a pidgeon loft.

 

[Insider]

PL - How likely is it Hereford will be ON?

 

[wehatepalace]

Papa can you tell me the best time to book my summer holiday

 

[SirDouglasLoft]

It betta' happen, I want a day of college Friday!

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

PL - How likely is it Hereford will be ON?

We, the people, DEMAND that Papa Lazarou be made the club's Weather-Forecaster-In-Residence

 

[jevs]

We, the people, DEMAND that Papa Lazarou be made the club's Weather-Forecaster-In-Residence

Well it's either papa or Uncle "it's going to rain because the cows are lying down" Spielberg

No brainer really

 

[Papa Lazarou]

PL - How likely is it Hereford will be ON?

Hhm... I'd say there's a good chance it will be off... if it snows on Friday they will probably have no choice but to call it off in advance... in much the same way the Albion did for tonight.

However, there is a huge amount of uncertainty as to the track and northern extent of the low that's going to cause the snow.

Tomorrow's model runs will be key for the match...

Papa