Miliband and his 'rumoured' future.

[scamander]

Cameron's got to be hoping Milliband stays. You do sense that a number of the newspapers (e.g. Daily Mail) are getting some revenge on him, he's clearly wound a few of them up.

I can't think of a time where the leaders of all political parties are lame ducks, they are all suppressing revolts and leadership challenges.

 

[father_and_son]

I'm not sure that's true - maybe some have - but the swing voters who move between parties tend to be more centrist/pro-Europe, not the sort of people to move to UKIP

The other aspect of UKIP voting is that, according to the polls, they've attracted a lot of people who have never voted before, rather than switching votes.

I think the UKIP explanation accounts for some but not all that discrepancy

If we simplify it to just right and left for the purposes of an easy explanation. If everyone is slightly further right than "usual" then the swing voters haven't moved from their centrist/pro-EU position, they have swing to "slightly right" and thinking of voting Tory. The "raving right wing" Tory voters have also moved "slightly right" and are now planning to vote UKIP. It could be as simple as one-in, one-out holding the main parties support static but making it look UKIP have gained the swing voters.

Add another dimension of complexity and assume, instead of everyone shifting slightly right, they shift slight away from centre and those raging left wingers are falling off the edge of Labour into Green and its easy to see how all the "minority" parties benefit.


Before I get flamed on this I fully appreciate that political voting is simpler then just a linear scale and that a UKIP voter isn't necessarily a rightER-wing Tory and a Green isn't a leftER-wing Labourite. I was only using this to show how centrist swing voters and gains by the fringe parties aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

It was interesting watching QT last night when the question about Milliband came up. Douglas Alexander was less than convincing when he tried to sing the praises of his leader.

The other interesting thing was how often the subject ( on most questions ) was brought round to UKIP and UKIP weren't even represented on the panel ! Love them or loathe them, they've certainly put the wind up the three main parties.

The idea that UKIP have attracted mainly Tory voters could be wrong. I'm a floating voter last four elections I've voted - Tory, Labour, Tory, Labour - yet this next one will in all likelihood be UKIP. I'd suggest it is the floating voters that make up the majority of UKIPs support.

 

[strings]

If there isn't a plot to get rid of Ed Miliband, the obvious question is 'Why not', and if there is it is 'Why has it taken so long'?

Labour have left it too late, they will either blow the chance of a win with Miliband, or blow the chance of it without him by getting rid too close and looking hopeless and desperate, with no time for a successor to make his or her mark. Lose/lose.

Shame they didn't have the wit and the guts to do it a year ago, or get the right brother in the first place.

I think that now would be the time. By the time the election comes around, the new leader would still look like a fresh face.

Given that (since Blair) opposition leaders these days do not have any policies until a few months before an election, it isn't as if the public have warmed to any of Ed's ideas.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

The question I'd like answered is this: if the economy is improving all the time (and we keep hearing from Tory supporters that it's on the up, fastest-growing in Europe etc) and the government is faced by the worst political leader in anyone's lifetime, why isn't the Tory party streets ahead in the polls?

Received wisdom is that the party that's winning on the economy will win and if you couple that with having the more popular leader, then the Tory party should have a lead of at least 10% and possibly 15 to 20% - Blair had a lead over Major of more than 20% before the 1997 election. And yet, the parties are running neck-and-neck - why is this?

The opposition always does better mid term & the incumbent always do better in the 6 months up to the next GE.
You fail to note Labour were Oppo before 97 & had been for 20 years. To be level now the Tories ARE ahead of where they need to be to win next year after nice budget etc etc Labour @ 30ish & falling is why their natives are getting restless

 

[Notters]

Psychopaths are often known for being charming and charismatic - and these qualities are in no way indicators of how well a person can run a country. Yet, of course, it does win votes. Democracy has become little more than a popularity contest - about as relevant as X factor.

That all said, Millband is a buffoon.

You're spot on. It's amazing how many people are influenced by a smiley face - see Tony Blair.

 

[Gwylan]

The idea that UKIP have attracted mainly Tory voters could be wrong. I'm a floating voter last four elections I've voted - Tory, Labour, Tory, Labour - yet this next one will in all likelihood be UKIP. I'd suggest it is the floating voters that make up the majority of UKIPs support.

The only survey I've seen is a You Gov one from last year that showed that three-quarters of IKIP voters who'd voted for another party 2010 had voted Tory. That ties in with private polling from Lord Ashcroft that suggests UKIP is pulling three or four times as many votes from Tories as it does from Labour.

The weird thing about the You Gov survey is the large number of people who'd voted Lib Dem in 2010 voted UKIP. How on earth can one go from supporting a strong pro-EU party with a liberal approach to law and order and to immigration to virulently anti-EU, pro-immigration measures party? There are some weird voters out there

 

[Brovion]

The only survey I've seen is a You Gov one from last year that showed that three-quarters of IKIP voters who'd voted for another party 2010 had voted Tory. That ties in with private polling from Lord Ashcroft that suggests UKIP is pulling three or four times as many votes from Tories as it does from Labour.

The weird thing about the You Gov survey is the large number of people who'd voted Lib Dem in 2010 voted UKIP. How on earth can one go from supporting a strong pro-EU party with a liberal approach to law and order and to immigration to virulently anti-EU, pro-immigration measures party? There are some weird voters out there

See Mustafa's spot-on post about politics these days being little more than a popularity contest. People liked 'that nice Nick Clegg'. He wasn't a dour Scotsman and he wasn't a stuck-up Tory toff so he got my vote. (Ok, not mine, but you see the point). Now they like Nigel Farage because he isn't Nick Clegg and he seems like a decent bloke.

 

[London Irish]

Surely one of the best cards the Tories have 'Red Ed'. However with the G/E six months away can Labour MP,s select a new leader alone or is it the long drawn out process ? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29935172

There was a poll came out last night that put the Tories on 27%. Labour would have a comfortable majority in those circumstances.

 

[London Irish]

The recent NSC poll actually quite closely reflected current trends in national polls with the Tories on 26%, Labour on 25%, UKIP on 26%, the Greens on 15% and there Lib Dems on 12%. This suggests that UKIP may be drawing support from both Tories and Labour (and Lib Dems?).

Not really, Labour has had a consistent lead in the combined averaged polls, which point to either a Labour majority or a hung parliament with Labour as biggest party.

 

[Buzzer]

The weird thing about the You Gov survey is the large number of people who'd voted Lib Dem in 2010 voted UKIP. How on earth can one go from supporting a strong pro-EU party with a liberal approach to law and order and to immigration to virulently anti-EU, pro-immigration measures party? There are some weird voters out there

Perhaps people are voting on single issues more than ever. You're right that politics has taken a very odd turn of late. I know in my case, I've going from voting Tory to Green and with a very big nod to Brovion's post, my decision has nothing to do with policies but based solely on the person. I trust Caroline Lucas, I don't trust the other candidates.

 

[Black Rod]

The weird thing about the You Gov survey is the large number of people who'd voted Lib Dem in 2010 voted UKIP. How on earth can one go from supporting a strong pro-EU party with a liberal approach to law and order and to immigration to virulently anti-EU, pro-immigration measures party? There are some weird voters out there

Lib Dems used to be the protest vote. As soon as you take up a serious role in government, you can no longer fill that role. And that is where UKIP are benefiting as the anti-establishment party that the Lib Dems once were

 

[Gwylan]

Lib Dems used to be the protest vote. As soon as you take up a serious role in government, you can no longer fill that role. And that is where UKIP are benefiting as the anti-establishment party that the Lib Dems once were

Protesting about what? The UKIP protest vote is about EU membership and too much immigration - they would not be what Lib Dem voters would have protested about. And how is a party led by public-school educated City trader an anti-establishment party.

I suspect that Brovion and Buzzer are nearer the truth with their personality-led politics so that it almost doesn't matter what they say. What will happen if UKIP becomes part of a coalition and Farage is forced to support a measure he doesn't agree with - will he then become untrustworthy too?

 

[Paris]

Who would they replace him with?

Tony Pulis.

Would he be allowed to wear his cap on the front bench?

 

[Don Quixote]

For a start the general election isn't some sort of presidential election, besides what the televised debates suggest. Hardly anyone will actually vote for Miliband. He just happens to be leader of the Labour Party.

 

[Hornblower]

Labour do have someone who, IMHO, would make an excellent leader but she's a woman and for all their brouhaha about glass ceilings, women's equality and the number of female MPs in the shadow cabinet they're not about to appoint a woman to lead the party. That person is Yvette Cooper. True she suffers from an unfortunate coupling with Ed Balls but she's always impressed me as being a highly able politician, with good shadow cabinet experience who also manages to retain a high level of personal integrity whilst all around her are busy fiddling expense claims or shagging their secretaries!

I agree Yvette would do a good job. First choice has to be Alan Johnson though.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Lib Dems used to be the protest vote. As soon as you take up a serious role in government, you can no longer fill that role. And that is where UKIP are benefiting as the anti-establishment party that the Lib Dems once were

I disagree , the protest vote historically behind the LibDems and their predecessors is now shifting to the Greens.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I agree Yvette would do a good job. First choice has to be Alan Johnson though.

Johnson was a rising star in the UCW (now CWU) thirty years ago , at the time I thought he would end up as a bigwig in the TUC.

 

[GreersElbow]

See Mustafa's spot-on post about politics these days being little more than a popularity contest. People liked 'that nice Nick Clegg'. He wasn't a dour Scotsman and he wasn't a stuck-up Tory toff so he got my vote. (Ok, not mine, but you see the point). Now they like Nigel Farage because he isn't Nick Clegg and he seems like a decent bloke.

Power of linguistics, Ed was always an appalling orator, never connected and sounds like a blocked nose, teenager moaning about the world. Cameron can communicate, not as effectively as say as someone as Blair, but he resonates better than Ed. Clegg did well in the PM. Debate in 2010, but his language was more mother like than Cameron and Brown. Brown was atrocious and Cameron was fairly aggressive in his manner on how he'll deal with the economy, I think that put people off him in general and still does.

Farage on the otherhand, fantastic orator and can connect. But his connection is not genuine, as we all know he used his father's network to land him a job in commodity trading after public school. However, his constant photo opportunities of him having a pint and a cigarette appeal to people. The tragedy of this of course, is that they think this makes him appear more normal. Despite Farage by his own definition, is a career politician; which allows the electorate who's perhaps not as clued up on politics as some others.

 

[Simster]

I disagree , the protest vote historically behind the LibDems and their predecessors is now shifting to the Greens.

That clearly isn't true. European economy in decline, so the UKIP popularist vote rises - of course UKIP is a protest vote FFS.

A good indicator of this would be that 95% of the people who voted UKIP wouldn't have a clue what other policies they have, beyond quitting the EU. BECAUSE IT'S A PROTEST VOTE.