Miliband and his 'rumoured' future.

[West Hoathly Seagull]

If we simplify it to just right and left for the purposes of an easy explanation. If everyone is slightly further right than "usual" then the swing voters haven't moved from their centrist/pro-EU position, they have swing to "slightly right" and thinking of voting Tory. The "raving right wing" Tory voters have also moved "slightly right" and are now planning to vote UKIP. It could be as simple as one-in, one-out holding the main parties support static but making it look UKIP have gained the swing voters.

Add another dimension of complexity and assume, instead of everyone shifting slightly right, they shift slight away from centre and those raging left wingers are falling off the edge of Labour into Green and its easy to see how all the "minority" parties benefit.


Before I get flamed on this I fully appreciate that political voting is simpler then just a linear scale and that a UKIP voter isn't necessarily a rightER-wing Tory and a Green isn't a leftER-wing Labourite. I was only using this to show how centrist swing voters and gains by the fringe parties aren't mutually exclusive.

I think the divide could also be between urban and suburban/rural voters and between London (and other socially similar cities) and smaller towns. The Times recently had a survey on attitudes to Europe, immigration and so on (unfortunately I didn't bookmark the link, and in any case it's behind a paywall). My constituency, Battersea, swung quite strongly Tory in 2010 (the majority is about 5,500), and most posters on UK Polling Report (www.ukpollingreport.co.uk) expect it to remain Tory next year. However, it was about the third most pro-immigration constituency in the country, and only 24% of voters were comfortable with the idea of the UK leaving the EU (different I suppose to wanting to leave it) - contrast that with Bexhill and Battle, where the figure was 67%. In addition, Sutton and Cheam, despite being a Lib Dem seat, had far lower pro-immigration and far higher anti-EU figures than Battersea (the same contrast applies with Horsham - safe Tory and Crawley - marginal Tory and Labour for all the time they were in power). My MP, Public Health Minister Jane Ellison, is also quite pro-Europe.

I am also not surprised some Labour supporters have gone for UKIP. Quite a lot of their core support outside the big cities, despite being standard left wing on the NHS and Trade Unions, etc, is rather socially conservative. If you read Tony Blair's memoirs, he describes how shocked he was at some of the attitudes he found among party members in Sedgefield. Their views on Law and Order, homosexuality and so on would not have gone down at all well in North London and other similar places.

 

[beorhthelm]

According to the EU Commission representative on 5Live this morning, the UK contributes something like 7billion Euros per annum but benefits to the tune of 70billion, he literally said we get our money back tenfold. And this is with the Eurozone doing poorly.

I must say I was slightly sceptical of his figures.

sceptical? its outright wrong, or deceptive. who exactly would or could be paying out 10x our contributions? I'd expect that he meant we have a net contribution of 7bn after payments in and out are accounted, but worded it to sound like we get more back.

How many economists have been heard on television or radio advocating a withdrawal from the EU? I can honestly say I haven't heard a single one because it is a stupid idea.

quite a few advocate that if we left with a free trade agreement in place we'd be considerably up. the general feeling is the regulation and laws from Brussels are a net drag, but we'd be worse off out and with out free trade. so the terms of withdrawal would be significant in any such debate.

 

[User removed 4]

I think the divide could also be between urban and suburban/rural voters and between London (and other socially similar cities) and smaller towns. The Times recently had a survey on attitudes to Europe, immigration and so on (unfortunately I didn't bookmark the link, and in any case it's behind a paywall). My constituency, Battersea, swung quite strongly Tory in 2010 (the majority is about 5,500), and most posters on UK Polling Report (www.ukpollingreport.co.uk) expect it to remain Tory next year. However, it was about the third most pro-immigration constituency in the country, and only 24% of voters were comfortable with the idea of the UK leaving the EU (different I suppose to wanting to leave it) - contrast that with Bexhill and Battle, where the figure was 67%. In addition, Sutton and Cheam, despite being a Lib Dem seat, had far lower pro-immigration and far higher anti-EU figures than Battersea (the same contrast applies with Horsham - safe Tory and Crawley - marginal Tory and Labour for all the time they were in power). My MP, Public Health Minister Jane Ellison, is also quite pro-Europe.

I am also not surprised some Labour supporters have gone for UKIP. Quite a lot of their core support outside the big cities, despite being standard left wing on the NHS and Trade Unions, etc, is rather socially conservative. If you read Tony Blair's memoirs, he describes how shocked he was at some of the attitudes he found among party members in Sedgefield. Their views on Law and Order, homosexuality and so on would not have gone down at all well in North London and other similar places.

Which just goes to show how out of touch with the working class the "party of the working class" really is.

 

[Brovion]

Which just goes to show how out of touch with the working class the "party of the working class" really is.

100% spot-on.

 

[abc]

Going back to the OP's title ie re Milliband......

I actually quite like him and how he eats a bacon sandwich is utterly irrelevant as to whether he is capable of being PM. I think he is now being scapegoated by the Labour party who collectively have no answer to the Colation's success in creating the strongest economy in Europe, low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates and so on. Labour's response has been to try and stir up a class war and run the country down at every opportunity. And yet the Tories are clearly unpopular and come across as out of touch and arrogant despite their economic success. Labour could have capitalised on this simply by offering a positive vision of the future and sectretly thanked the Tories for sorting out the economic mess that Labour left behind. Either partiy could have been way out in front by now if one of them had united behind a vision for the future that the country could understand and subscribe to. Neither have and that's why so many are turning to UKIP and others. Removing Milliband wont change this.

 

[Gwylan]

Which just goes to show how out of touch with the working class the "party of the working class" really is.

I was (very briefly) a member of the Labour Party about 30 years ago. I remember going to a fundraising party held at one of the local party official's house. We had to bring some food along and I remember one guy, a Scot who worked as a postie (and was one of the genuine working class blokes in the party), brought along some processed cheese, much to the horror of the hostess, who spent the next half an hour slagging this guy off for his poor taste in food.

I think it was that moment that made me decide the Labour Party wasn't for me

 

[knocky1]

I was (very briefly) a member of the Labour Party about 30 years ago. I remember going to a fundraising party held at one of the local party official's house. We had to bring some food along and I remember one guy, a Scot who worked as a postie (and was one of the genuine working class blokes in the party), brought along some processed cheese, much to the horror of the hostess, who spent the next half an hour slagging this guy off for his poor taste in food.

I think it was that moment that made me decide the Labour Party wasn't for me

I don't blame you. Mixing with people who like processed cheese sounds awful, especially during the miner's strike.

 

[User removed 4]

I was (very briefly) a member of the Labour Party about 30 years ago. I remember going to a fundraising party held at one of the local party official's house. We had to bring some food along and I remember one guy, a Scot who worked as a postie (and was one of the genuine working class blokes in the party), brought along some processed cheese, much to the horror of the hostess, who spent the next half an hour slagging this guy off for his poor taste in food.

I think it was that moment that made me decide the Labour Party wasn't for me

I remember the story about peter mandelson going out with some of his constituency party members somewhere up north and whilst they were getting fish and chips he asked to have "some of that guacamole" in the cabinet, apparently the look of horror on his face when he was told they were mushy peas was a picture !!

 

[Greyrun]

I remember the story about peter mandelson going out with some of his constituency party members somewhere up north and whilst they were getting fish and chips he asked to have "some of that guacamole" in the cabinet, apparently the look of horror on his face when he was told they were mushy peas was a picture !!

Sadly not true,it was said by an American assistant and attributed to Mandelson by Kinnock as a wind up.

 

[Brighton Mod]

I hope Ed is pleased with himself now. He knifed his (far more capable) brother in the back to get the job and is now universally laughed at.

Shaka Umana for me.

Romulus and Remus!!! I think Milliband is a sitting duck, needs to ditch the dillusional 'Balls' who has just walked into the rebate trap in Europe, labour about to implode in Scotland, under pressure in their own heartlands, the next general election could see labour marginalised. Milliband and labour offer nothing.

The delayed defence from his ministers who were all running up their flags to see which way the wind was blowing is telling. Dead man walking,

 

[GreersElbow]

Lose the election? But Herr Thumbguybloke said they're gonna smash the election?!

 

[Brighton Mod]

Lose the election? But Herr Thumbguybloke said they're gonna smash the election?!

he's a right laugh that herr bloke, i'm sure he just does it for a wind up, he surely can't believe what he writes, can he?

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Pathetic lies, why bother?
15-19 in last 20 polls.

Oh and this. 24% my àrse.

I suggest you check the Survation poll (7/11/14)

 

[West Hoathly Seagull]

Power of linguistics, Ed was always an appalling orator, never connected and sounds like a blocked nose, teenager moaning about the world. Cameron can communicate, not as effectively as say as someone as Blair, but he resonates better than Ed. Clegg did well in the PM. Debate in 2010, but his language was more mother like than Cameron and Brown. Brown was atrocious and Cameron was fairly aggressive in his manner on how he'll deal with the economy, I think that put people off him in general and still does.

Farage on the otherhand, fantastic orator and can connect. But his connection is not genuine, as we all know he used his father's network to land him a job in commodity trading after public school. However, his constant photo opportunities of him having a pint and a cigarette appeal to people. The tragedy of this of course, is that they think this makes him appear more normal. Despite Farage by his own definition, is a career politician; which allows the electorate who's perhaps not as clued up on politics as some others.

The thing is that it's through oratory that most people come into contact with politicians, although this was not why I voted for Cameron over Davis for Tory leader in 2005. I thought he got why the party was so unpopular, and for a while, he seemed to chime with the electorate; before the banking crash in 2008 and the MPs' expenses issue, the Conservatives were regularly on 40% or more in the polls and student Conservative organisations saw a massive increase in membership (the Young Conservatives had practically ceased to function), then the "can't trust any of them" factor came right into play.

However, I attended a hustings meeting where they both spoke. Cameron didn't say a lot on policy, but what he did say he put across extremely well. Davis had a lot more to say, but couldn't communicate it. At least partly for the same reasons, Boris Johnson will almost certainly become leader at some point. My own choice for leader when Cameron goes would be Rory Stewart, who successfully prevented two large Iraqi provinces from falling apart after the war, but he is not nearly as charismatic as Boris. I will admit that I don't take to Ed Miliband, but the issue of what someone is actually like to work with is a valid point. I worked for a while at the Home Office for Paul Goggins when he was Minister for Youth Justice. A more decent, likeable bloke would have been hard to find (working for people like him is one reason why, though I am still a Conservative, I am far less partisan than I used to be). He had a great eye for detail, but was not much of an orator.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Lose the election? But Herr Thumbguybloke said they're gonna smash the election?!

I have said Miliband will be the next PM. I never said they'd smash it... which I presume means win by a big margin.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

he's a right laugh that herr bloke, i'm sure he just does it for a wind up, he surely can't believe what he writes, can he?

Many a true word said in jest my friend.

 

[GreersElbow]

I have said Miliband will be the next PM. I never said they'd smash it... which I presume means win by a big margin.

7 points not a big margin?.....

Parliamentary democracy has changed, large majorities will be difficult to come by now.

 

[The Spanish]

I have said Miliband will be the next PM. I never said they'd smash it... which I presume means win by a big margin.

Is he planning to defect to ukip then

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

7 points not a big margin?.....

Parliamentary democracy has changed, large majorities will be difficult to come by now.

That was just the poll at the time I created that thread. I have said elsewhere I would not put my house on a majority as a coalition is a distinct possibility but I do believe Miliband will be PM regardless.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Is he planning to defect to ukip then

If it enables me to save face next May I don't mind