Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Dick Swiveller]

The Thames TV YouTube channel does throw up some fascinating old clips and this one arrived today. A 1974 report on why there were shortages of products. Good old toilet paper gets a mention along with the EEC butter mountain. Nice to know human behaviour hasn't changed all that much in 50 years.

 

[Fungus]

Reckon there'll be another lockdown in the next month to "circuit break".

Don't forget toilet roll, pasta and beans on your next shop.

So November is being sacrificed for Christmas Day?

 

[Poojah]

Think we need to build a wall and get the Mancs to pay for it...!

Would that make it a wonderwall?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

So November is being sacrificed for Christmas Day?

Seems like the North won’t be having a Christmas

 

[Poojah]

Seems like the North won’t be having a Christmas

In theory that may be the case; I can see reality being very different in practice. Imposing strict measures over the festive period is one thing, but how can the government actually enforce them? Living up in Leeds where things are pretty bad I’ve spoken to numerous people who’ve said they’ll be having their family Christmas no matter what the guidance days.

One lad I work with has said he’ll be doing two weeks of self-isolation in the run up to make it highly unlikely he’d be carrying the virus into his elderly parents house, but how many people can or will do that?

I can see the potential for Christmas carnage to influence the action the government takes now. They’ll be acutely aware that if the numbers are bad going into mid-December that they’ll have lost control of the situation and will be powerless to do anything about.

It’s gonna be grim up north...

 

[beorhthelm]

In theory that may be the case; I can see reality being very different in practice. Imposing strict measures over the festive period is one thing, but how can the government actually enforce them? Living up in Leeds where things are pretty bad I’ve spoken to numerous people who’ve said they’ll be having their family Christmas no matter what the guidance days.

One lad I work with has said he’ll be doing two weeks of self-isolation in the run up to make it highly unlikely he’d be carrying the virus into his elderly parents house, but how many people can or will do that?

very few, then when the over 70 are dropping dead through January they wont take responsibility. already happening isnt it, the north not following basic guidance. why else is it going up so much more there?

and this is why we cant have policy to protect the vulnerable, because people wont follow the guidance, so we have to limit the spread among those less affected too.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

In theory that may be the case; I can see reality being very different in practice. Imposing strict measures over the festive period is one thing, but how can the government actually enforce them? Living up in Leeds where things are pretty bad I’ve spoken to numerous people who’ve said they’ll be having their family Christmas no matter what the guidance days.

One lad I work with has said he’ll be doing two weeks of self-isolation in the run up to make it highly unlikely he’d be carrying the virus into his elderly parents house, but how many people can or will do that?

I can see the potential for Christmas carnage to influence the action the government takes now. They’ll be acutely aware that if the numbers are bad going into mid-December that they’ll have lost control of the situation and will be powerless to do anything about.

It’s gonna be grim up north...

There is no chance people won’t be patrolling on xmas day and neighbours calling each other out

If you are following the rules at xmas and next door has 8 round, they will be calling the police.

 

[Poojah]

very few, then when the over 70 are dropping dead through January they wont take responsibility. already happening isnt it, the north not following basic guidance. why else is it going up so much more there?

and this is why we cant have policy to protect the vulnerable, because people wont follow the guidance, so we have to limit the spread among those less affected too.

You've hit the nail on the head there. Unless you have a nation of blanket compliance (and we don't), it becomes impossible to shield the vulnerable. The trouble is, a lot of people seem to be struggling see the bigger picture beyond themselves and their immediate families when it comes to weighing up the risks they are willing to take.

Case in point, my in-laws are pretty adament they want to come through to us this Christmas, by hook or by crook. Now, it hasn't taken a killer virus to make me not want that to happen, however that's not the point. They are late fifties, early sixties - just below the threshold that would put them at a perceivably higher risk, but not necessarily spring chickens either. My father-in-law is pretty significantly overweight too, which doesn't help, but even if there was a way you could guarantee that the virus would do no great harm to them (and us, I don't f*cking want to catch it either), it still completely overlooks the fact that somewhere down the chain of transmission somebody is probably going to become seriously ill, or worse.

Anyone that knows me and particularly anyone that works with me will know that I cannot stand rules and procedures, I hate 'em. I would say I have an almost pathological dislike of being told what to do, it just winds me up, I don't know why. But usually my decision to do things my own way is no big a problem than a mild irritation for my colleagues. This is different. People do need to wake up and see the bigger picture, particularly where Christmas is concerned.

It's my mum's 70th in December. I'm pretty gutted it looks as though I won't be able to see her on her birthday, and that she won't be able to celebrate in the way she had planned. It's a real shame, another on a very long list of 'real shames' in 2020 so far, but more important to me right now is that she's around to celebrate her 71st...

 

[Poojah]

There is no chance people won’t be patrolling on xmas day and neighbours calling each other out

If you are following the rules at xmas and next door has 8 round, they will be calling the police.

You're probably right, there will be a bit of that mentality, but what are the police meant to do? Send everyone packing? Arrest people? Dish out fines?

Ultimately, by that point the damage will have already been done. I just can't see it not happening - people will risk their chances in order to have something like a normal Christmas in what has been the most abnormal of years.

Realistically, we need to get a grip on this now or things are likely to get very messy.

 

[RossyG]

The 7-day average for Covid deaths in London (pop. 9m) is 4. Better shut down Oxford Street for the next three months to be on the safe side.

Still, at least the Swedes will be having a merry Christmas.

 

[dazzer6666]

The 7-day average for Covid deaths in London (pop. 9m) is 4. Better shut down Oxford Street for the next three months to be on the safe side.

Still, at least the Swedes will be having a merry Christmas.

 

[e77]

Yes, but Sweden.

 

[RossyG]

Yes, Sweden...



And here’s the U.K.

 

[Weststander]

Yes, Sweden...

View attachment 129386

And here’s the U.K.

View attachment 129388

Your crafty selection of three high death nations, failed to give the overall pan European picture. Where Norway, Finland and Denmark really did have their cake and it.

 

[RossyG]

I could “craftily” put any country in Europe and the story is the same. As far as deaths go, the pandemic ended in early June.

We should’ve ended the restrictions months ago. Instead, the government will keep doubling down.

 

[beorhthelm]

I could “craftily” put any country in Europe and the story is the same. As far as deaths go, the pandemic ended in early June.

We should’ve ended the restrictions months ago. Instead, the government will keep doubling down.

could that be because of restrictions?

 

[highflyer]

I could “craftily” put any country in Europe and the story is the same. As far as deaths go, the pandemic ended in early June.

We should’ve ended the restrictions months ago. Instead, the government will keep doubling down.

But what do you think has happened to 'end' the pandemic exactly?

Because as far as I can see we have brought it under control to some extent with restrictions, testing etc.

And medical teatments are a bit better, but only a bit.

And that's it. That's where we are. That's reality.

Death rates seem to be pretty much exactly what you'd have expected against symptomatic case rates ( somewhere between 0.5% and 0.75% - based on a 3-4 week average lag between testing positive and death), given that it's a higher % of younger people getting infected + improvements in treatments.

I was hopeful at one stage that pre-existing immunity would be high enough that we could lift restrictions gradually and not see a significant second wave. But evidence now seems to indicate that is not the case.

The virus hasn't changed, our behaviour has.

The rate of infection across the UK is rising by 10% in 10 days overall, with most of that rise in the north.
Only a couple of weeks before that it was rising at 100% in 10 days.

The imposition of increased restrictions in hotspots is the only rational explanation for that slowdown.

Exposure to the virus across the population is estimated at around 7-10% - which should help slow things down, but only a bit.

As far as I can see, from the evidence available, everything remains in place for the virus to increases very rapidly again if we simply lift restrictions. Once it becomes widespread in the community no serious epidemiologists thinks it will be possible to stop it spreading to more vulnerable groups. And that would have a potentially catastrophic effect, not just in terms of those that would die, but the pressure on the NHS and impact on the economy.

The biggest differences between now and March is that a) we know how to manage it better and testing capacity is at higher level b) we have the opportunity to bring in lower level of restrictions before it gets out of control and so avoid a complete lockdown and c) there appears to be a good chance of a vaccine available within months, so we do have a potential end in sight.

We can manage this if everyone works together and is sensible, but magical thinking doesn't help.

 

[vegster]

Sounds like we are pretty much as we were in March but, we know more about the virus and we have enough PPE.... Other than that it's a very gloomy picture as there will be no March style lockdown just semi lockdowns which won't work so.....

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Sounds like we are pretty much as we were in March but, we know more about the virus and we have enough PPE.... Other than that it's a very gloomy picture as there will be no March style lockdown just semi lockdowns which won't work so.....

How many more lockdowns will it takes before they realise lockdowns are not the answer other than kicking the problem down the road and cause even more issues along the way?

 

[beorhthelm]

How many more lockdowns will it takes before they realise lockdowns are not the answer other than kicking the problem down the road and cause even more issues along the way?

is there another approach that doesnt have any issues? if so why is no country using it?