Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Weststander]

In my opinion I picked it up or something massively resembling it from my son being around his friends who came back from a half term trip to Madrid. That's not scaremongering. I imagine there are more possibly only just starting to show symptoms at that school

I'm listening to the UK's expert virologists and epidemiologists. You also have to remember that normally healthy/low risk adults under 60 or 70, and children are not dying from Coronavirus. Children especially appear to be particularly immune to the effects.

Schools will close in time, not to save childrens or parents lives, but to slow the spread.

 

[Seasider78]

With all of the shifts to remote working, meetings and now teaching on such a huge scale I wonder if one of the outputs of this crisis may be a complete re-think about how we structure and live our working lives. This virus could be a catalyst for change in travel and working habits in the future.

 

[atomised]

I'm listening to the UK's expert virologists and epidemiologists. You also have to remember that normally healthy/low risk adults under 60 or 70, and children are not dying from Coronavirus. Children especially appear to be particularly immune to the effects.

Schools will close in time, not to save childrens or parents lives, but to slow the spread.

Not sure why you're arguing my point I was neither arguing for or against. I can very much see both sides on this one.

 

[Wozza]

Not sure why you're arguing my point I was neither arguing for or against. I can very much see both sides on this one.

Eh? Are you new to the Internet?!

 

[atomised]

Eh? Are you new to the Internet?!

Not at all. I just had a moment of forgetting it was the place to start non arguments

 

[Mo Gosfield]

A lot of people calling you mad just proves they have zero clue what we're in for.

You can smack all the numbers and all the facts in peoples heads over and over and they still dont get it.

I understand its very difficult for people to grasp psychologically that in any realistic scenario deaths, just in the UK, will count to several hundred thousands of people and in many likely scenarios multiple millions.

I get its difficult to grasp, and many have their defense mechanisms of denial working full time right now and the remaining countries not to take sharp measures - UK, Sweden and Finland - needs to do it ASAP. Each day of slack restrictions means hundreds of dead at this point.

Whilst treating this virus with the utmost caution and seriousness it deserves, I, personally, cannot get my head around multiple millions dying in the UK. I look at the global figures daily and I see the exponential growth in death rate but I also see the measures that are being taken to counteract the problem. Even with a revised WHO mortality rate estimate of 3.4%, my natural inclination is to believe that figures will be a lot lower. I could be very wrong. I hope not.
To suggest that many people have ' zero clue ' what we are in for suggests that you have superior knowledge and therefore do know what we are in for. As we have not encountered anything remotely like this for about a century, it does tend to suggest that none of us really know what to expect and projections are what they are....just projections.

 

[atomised]

In Brighton of course theres a protest at the clock tower with some bloke spitting into a megaphone whilst over in Holland people queue for their weed supplies before lock down. Strange times

 

[peterward]

why are people saying millions could die here with a population of 65 m and 3200 have died in china with a population of 1.5 b ? I don't get it

China and it's authoritarian control structure of society and media with no human rights, cannot be compared to us, they have been massively successful in controlling the disease (at huge social cost). With people literally barracaded in their homes and guys in hamzat suits breaking down doors and dragging away suspected cases.

What happened today under French lockdown, where loads never bothered to do it and in our part of the world, where self interest reins in free liberal society (look in your local Tesco) shows the challenge in mirroring China. South Korea may be a better template minus their first world health service

 

[atomised]

China and it's authoritarian control structure of society and media with no human rights, cannot be compared to us, they have been massively successful in controlling the disease (at huge social cost). With people literally barracaded in their homes and guys in hamzat suits breaking down doors and dragging away suspected cases.

What happened today under French lockdown, where loads never bothered to do it and in our part of the world, where self interest reins in free liberal society (look in your local Tesco) shows the challenge in mirroring China. South Korea may be a better template minus their first world health service

But isnt that the point, that whilst China appear successful we dont really know how successful until we see what happens post lockdown measures. Maybe they have but I keep seeing people quoting Chinas success as final and complete. Truth is we cant tell for certaiin

 

[Hugo Rune]

South Korea may be a better template minus their first world health service

Also Japan. They are an Island with the eldest population in the World and seem to be containing it an awful lot better than the U.K.
Just 6 new cases yesterday.

 

[The Clamp]

I believe Iceland is now doing an hour dedicated to over 70’s to do their shopping. Common sense. And who doesn’t love a prawn ring and a bag of brown shapes to put in the oven?!

 

[Is it PotG?]

Logic would indicate that what the Chinese have achieved is a short term, finger in the dike scenario.

This cannot, imho, provide a long term solution, and they may well be sitting on a time-bomb of infection.

 

[schmunk]

finger in the dike

Ooh, I've seen that movie.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I believe Iceland is now doing an hour dedicated to over 70’s to do their shopping. Common sense. And who doesn’t love a prawn ring and a bag of brown shapes to put in the oven?!

Still out of Breeze and Petal Soft bog roll online though

 

[pearl]

I believe Iceland is now doing an hour dedicated to over 70’s to do their shopping. Common sense. And who doesn’t love a prawn ring and a bag of brown shapes to put in the oven?!

Great idea. Why can't we do the same in the UK?

 

[Bozza]

Whilst treating this virus with the utmost caution and seriousness it deserves, I, personally, cannot get my head around multiple millions dying in the UK.

I've not seen those numbers anywhere, although I'm largely steering clear of all news sources right now.

However, I could see how someone could get to that...

66,000,000 (UK population) * 80% (worst case infection rate) * 3.4% (fatality rate) = 1,795,200.

However....

- The fatality rate is significantly influenced by health resources. If those who need specialist care get it, then a lot more of them survive (flatten the curve).
- There is considerable hope that far more people have had this than has been recorded, ie all those who had no symptoms or mild symptoms.
- It is predominantly those who are very ill who are being tested.
- Because someone died had the virus doesn't mean it was the virus that killed them.

Any or all of those reasons could skew the data quite considerably.

What I'm struggling to understand is how we get to a viable vaccine available at scale whilst keeping infection rates down. Four months isn't going to do it.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Ooh, I've seen that movie.

Need to pass the time with all of the self-isolation

 

[Stat Brother]

Another way of looking at it:

The Chinese province of Hubei got a population of 58 million, had 67 700 of cases and 2986 confirmed deaths, and they went into lockdown when they had only 400 (iirc) confirmed cases.

As for the deaths, Hubei brought in thousands of doctors and built hospitals with thousands of beds, yet they were overwhelmed and many people died or will die.

But the lack of pollution is saving more lives than the virus is reported to have taken.

 

[Is it PotG?]

But the lack of pollution is saving more lives than the virus is reported to have taken.

In the short-term, yes it is. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

 

[The Clamp]

Great idea. Why can't we do the same in the UK?

Brilliant!