Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Deleted member 22389]

Any tips welcome!

There is no good news at the moment with this virus, and it just fuels peoples anxiety. A good tip is to get off the internet for a couple of days, if you can't do that then just block news sites. There are also a few addons for firefox & chrome that will stop you looking at websites that contain keywords you define. It works very well.

 

[Weststander]

…... finger in the dike scenario.

A local movie, set in Kemp Town?

 

[yxee]

Also Japan. They are an Island with the eldest population in the World and seem to be containing it an awful lot better than the U.K.
Just 6 new cases yesterday.

I don't think Japan is testing many people

 

[Bold Seagull]

Also Japan. They are an Island with the eldest population in the World and seem to be containing it an awful lot better than the U.K.
Just 6 new cases yesterday.

This is where too much info. is almost leading to too many conclusions.

Japan's testing is well below most other countries. They're not even testing people going into hospital presenting symptoms. The US could be facing a huge rise given their testing has been next to non existent.

https://www.ft.com/content/dd416102-5d20-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Are you able to drive to Chichester to shop for them, or do they know a neighbour who will collect shopping? Quite a few parish councils are setting up help groups for the elderly in their areas, to do that.


Beware of scammers, who are offering to do shopping, and then robbing the trusting Oaps.

Thanks, I have been and got some stuff for them now, but there are many issues as dad is diabetic and celiac and mum is amazingly fussy!
Last shop I did Mum gave me most of the stuff because she said she wouldn't eat it, they are both suffering from early dementia, so the workload on me is getting heavier all the time. I have young kids, so it's full-on.
On the plus side, I can manage my diary work-wise as I am self-employed.

I have cancelled my next two online shops booked with Tesco after hubby quite rightly pointed out I was being selfish as I am neither old nor vulnerable so supermarket shopping for me now to free up for those in greater need.

Well done you, if only every younger person would do that then people like me could shop for our parents online.

 

[Stat Brother]

In the short-term, yes it is. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

Give with one hand ...

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

This improved government communication, anybody know what time the press conference is?

 

[sparkie]

I've not seen those numbers anywhere, although I'm largely steering clear of all news sources right now.

However, I could see how someone could get to that...

66,000,000 (UK population) * 80% (worst case infection rate) * 3.4% (fatality rate) = 1,795,200.

However....

- The fatality rate is significantly influenced by health resources. If those who need specialist care get it, then a lot more of them survive (flatten the curve).
- There is considerable hope that far more people have had this than has been recorded, ie all those who had no symptoms or mild symptoms.
- It is predominantly those who are very ill who are being tested.
- Because someone died had the virus doesn't mean it was the virus that killed them.

Any or all of those reasons could skew the data quite considerably.

What I'm struggling to understand is how we get to a viable vaccine available at scale whilst keeping infection rates down. Four months isn't going to do it.

Production lines with thousands of ventilators being produced a week will help.

When doctors have to choose who get them, then that is a big factor leading to the death rate going up.

It should have started a month ago, mind.

 

[Braggfan]

I've not seen those numbers anywhere, although I'm largely steering clear of all news sources right now.

However, I could see how someone could get to that...

66,000,000 (UK population) * 80% (worst case infection rate) * 3.4% (fatality rate) = 1,795,200.

However....

- The fatality rate is significantly influenced by health resources. If those who need specialist care get it, then a lot more of them survive (flatten the curve).
- There is considerable hope that far more people have had this than has been recorded, ie all those who had no symptoms or mild symptoms.
- It is predominantly those who are very ill who are being tested.
- Because someone died had the virus doesn't mean it was the virus that killed them.

Any or all of those reasons could skew the data quite considerably.

What I'm struggling to understand is how we get to a viable vaccine available at scale whilst keeping infection rates down. Four months isn't going to do it.

But the 80% infection rate is the crazy stat. In China the infection rate is currently 0.006% of the population, in Italy its 0.04%. And it's currently 0.02% in the UK. So for an 80% infection rate something incredible would have to happen.

 

[Is it PotG?]

But the 80% infection rate is the crazy stat. In China the infection rate is currently 0.006% of the population, in Italy its 0.04%. And it's currently 0.02% in the UK. So for an 80% infection rate something incredible would have to happen.

In your opinion, will this low level in Italy and China be maintained until a safe vaccine is distributed?

 

[Weststander]

But the 80% infection rate is the crazy stat. In China the infection rate is currently 0.006% of the population, in Italy its 0.04%. And it's currently 0.02% in the UK. So for an 80% infection rate something incredible would have to happen.

China’s is a false, short term, scenario. A province confined to their homes by the military. Eventually, the virus will reach other areas.

Unless they can maintain the mass imprisonment for a year, until an vaccine is found and manufactured.

 

[Hugo Rune]

This is where too much info. is almost leading to too many conclusions.

Japan's testing is well below most other countries. They're not even testing people going into hospital presenting symptoms. The US could be facing a huge rise given their testing has been next to non existent.

https://www.ft.com/content/dd416102-5d20-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

That’s interesting info. Thanks.

 

[Bozza]

But the 80% infection rate is the crazy stat. In China the infection rate is currently 0.006% of the population, in Italy its 0.04%. And it's currently 0.02% in the UK. So for an 80% infection rate something incredible would have to happen.

If you lock people in their homes the virus can't spread.

If I have the virus and you don't and we never meet I can't infect you.

 

[Swansman]

 

[Hugo Rune]

But the 80% infection rate is the crazy stat. In China the infection rate is currently 0.006% of the population, in Italy its 0.04%. And it's currently 0.02% in the UK. So for an 80% infection rate something incredible would have to happen.

I initially thought this figure was used to frighten people into hand washing and self-isolation. I then thought it was a government target to achieve ‘herd immunity’ but Hancock rubbished that as a strategy over the weekend. Map that 80% out over a long time and it does become realistic though, in essence, Covid-19 would be as common as Flu and would mutate most years with vaccines trying to keep up.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

But the 80% infection rate is the crazy stat. In China the infection rate is currently 0.006% of the population, in Italy its 0.04%. And it's currently 0.02% in the UK. So for an 80% infection rate something incredible would have to happen.

This is why most people who don't have worryingly heightened levels of anxiety are just keeping calm and carrying on, while taking proportionate precautions while governments and media whip each other up into a state of hysteria

 

[Braggfan]

I initially thought this figure was used to frighten people into hand washing and self-isolation. I then thought it was a government target to achieve ‘herd immunity’ but Hancock rubbished that as a strategy over the weekend. Map that 80% out over a long time and it does become realistic though, in essence, Covid-19 would be as common as Flu and would mutate most years with vaccines trying to keep up.

I guess that is the thing, what time frame are we looking at? I've seen reports that have suggested it could last till spring 2021, so basically lets take it as 1 year. I still think for it to reach 80% infection rate within a year would take something colossal to happen, because so far the infection rates are phenomenally lower than that. I've also read reports that the virus might become seasonal, but weaker as people build up resistance. So again maybe 80% will get infected, over a long period of time but with varying/weaker strengths of the virus. I'm not trying to dismiss it, it is very serious, but 80% infection and 1 million dead seems unlikely to me given that the places that have experienced the worst of it so far, aren't anywhere near those figures.

 

[DumLum]

If you lock people in their homes the virus can't spread.

If I have the virus and you don't and we never meet I can't infect you.

What about flies in the summer?
Pick it up in your house fly out of the window and land on my food a few doors down.
Obviously it would reduce the rate of infections but it couldn't rule it out 100% ?

I have no idea if this is possible by the way.

 

[Braggfan]

In your opinion, will this low level in Italy and China be maintained until a safe vaccine is distributed?

That's a good question. I'd certainly hope it would. I wouldn't rule out it increasing, but for it change and increase to the 80% mark, something drastic would have to happen.

 

[atomised]

View attachment 121075

If Germany change to full closure we are going to look very isolated based on that