Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Thunder Bolt]

False dawn.

 

[beorhthelm]

What if both numbers are understated? More people are getting it, and more are dying. It's been suggested that some have died without going to hospital and that their deaths haven't been recorded as Coronavirus

suggested by who though? anyone with a reliable insight to death rates in China, or anyone interested in drumming up the latest doom?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

What if both numbers are understated? More people are getting it, and more are dying. It's been suggested that some have died without going to hospital and that their deaths haven't been recorded as Coronavirus

I could understand the number of people having the virus being understated but not how many have died. The WHO are in China at the moment so should be keeping the Chinese on their toes regards reporting deaths.




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[peterward]

I think you’ll find that the life of the virus in the human body is 28 days. It will survive(in the right conditions) for up to 24 hours on a surface.
The apartment in York was deep cleaned in the same way the French have done. Basically the same protocols.

The number of new cases in China appears to be reducing which is in line with what a number of virologists have stated.
The one concern is that it mutates such that the infection rates increase as well as severity. As mentioned in one of the posts below the ability to pass on without showing symptoms isn’t correct which is very good news.

For some perspective.
40,000 cases, the vast majority in China, some 900 deaths.
Wuhan has a population of 11.3m. Infection rates are very low ....




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The virus can survive up to 28 days... but that suggests it won't always... and a surface would only be contaminated if he had the virus on his hands at that point presumably. Which won't be all the time.

The people in France are in hospital and therefore suffering symptoms and confirmed as infected. The kid in Portslade, by the sounds of it, has simply realised he's been in contact with someone with the virus as self-isolation is only the first stage.

Early reports that the virus can be spread by people who have no symptoms have been discredited. So the likelihood of the Portslade kid infecting anyone else - assuming he's not feeling ill - seems to be pretty much zero. As for the other kids, if they haven't got any symptoms, there shouldn't be any risk. If they feel ill, they'll probably be told to self-isolate.

I haven't seen anywhere that has "debunked" the suggestion it can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers. I have seen many say it definitely can and others saying they're not fullly convinced yet. That's not "debunking".

Our Brighton fella stayed in the alpine apartment left without symptoms, was back in UK over 1 week when unrelated Brits caught it in the same place he'd been.

The Japanese cruise ship states the original carrier got on ship on 20th Jan in Japan and off in Hong Kong on 25 before showing symptoms on 2 Feb 8 days later. For this reason the ship was quarantined and then others on the ship (10 initially) are diagnosed almost 10 days after the carrier had got off.

The normal winter flu is also transmissable during incubation. I'm not personally convinced that coronavirus being non transmissable during incubation has been debunked at all..... There's lots of official bodies and circumstantial situations that seem to point otherwise.

 

[fleet]

It’s in China’s interest to get this over rapidly. I guess they will do whatever is needed - violent enforcing of isolation and curfews, and hiding the correct numbers from everyone. But they will certainly want to get rid of it ASAP. That said it will be off the main news coverage very soon, whether it is growing or reducing as a problem, as nothing keeps peoples interest for long.

 

[Solid at the back]

The government needs to impose strict curfews effective immediately

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

suggested by who though? anyone with a reliable insight to death rates in China, or anyone interested in drumming up the latest doom?

I could understand the number of people having the virus being understated but not how many have died. The WHO are in China at the moment so should be keeping the Chinese on their toes regards reporting deaths.




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I know we read that a Japanese man died in Wuhan with symptoms just like the coronavirus but he was officially determined to have died from pneumonia and thus wasn't added to the coronavirus numbers.

So how many more Chinese are like that?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I think you’ll find that the life of the virus in the human body is 28 days. It will survive(in the right conditions) for up to 24 hours on a surface.
The apartment in York was deep cleaned in the same way the French have done. Basically the same protocols.

The number of new cases in China appears to be reducing which is in line with what a number of virologists have stated.
The one concern is that it mutates such that the infection rates increase as well as severity. As mentioned in one of the posts below the ability to pass on without showing symptoms isn’t correct which is very good news.

For some perspective.
40,000 cases, the vast majority in China, some 900 deaths.
Wuhan has a population of 11.3m. Infection rates are very low ....

They have had to forcibly isolate, quarantine and curfew a city of 11.3m people to achieve those infection rates. Could we manage the same? Could most countries?

 

[peterward]

The 4 more cases are in France not in Brighton. The Brighton man spent time with them on the way home from a conference in Singapore.

They're in UK not France.

 

[peterward]

In all likelihood this years flu strain as the odds of spending 15 minutes within 2metres of someone who has the symptoms is mind blowingly low.
I believe that coronavirus takes upwards of 7 days to come out, but don’t quote me on that.



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Anywhere from 1 up to 14 days with average of about 5 1/2 days (I read)

 

[LamieRobertson]

And there is this:

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18223620.county-oak-medical-centre-brighton-shuts-safety-reason/

County Oak Medical centre has shut for unspecified safety reasons. Same day as 4 more cases in Brighton are reported.

Now confirmed re virus

 

[surrey jim]

And there is this:

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18223620.county-oak-medical-centre-brighton-shuts-safety-reason/

County Oak Medical centre has shut for unspecified safety reasons. Same day as 4 more cases in Brighton are reported.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761

GP practice in Brighton closes after staff member tests positive for coronavirus

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

 

[Fignon's Ponytail]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51447761

Slightly worrying as this is the surgery my elderly parents use, and my dad has been up there a lot recently with separate health concerns......

 

[Dick Swiveller]

I sneezed 3 times on my way back from the chemist having sat for an hour in the doctor's waiting room this morning. I have self prescribed 14 days self isolation playing Transport Fever 2 and drinking G&T for medicinal reasons.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

Oh deep joy, it will spread like wildfire now in Brighton, it just so happens I feel like shite today with a cold (I hope).....

Schools will be closed next, as panic sets in among the five ways elite brigade not far away, followed by panic buying at M&S

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Anywhere from 1 up to 14 days with average of about 5 1/2 days (I read)

BBC are quoting 2-14 so in the same ball park.


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[Easy 10]

19 days till Palace. I'd love to infect them.

 

[dazzer6666]

19 days till Palace. I'd love to infect them.

Interesting thought but suspect there's a lot more infections that could come the other way from the great unwashed from up the road.

 

[Easy 10]

Interesting thought but suspect there's a lot more infections that could come the other way from the great unwashed from up the road.

Well we've always had to accommodate that risk. It'd be nice to send them back to Croydon with something else to deal with other than zero points again though.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

I haven't seen anywhere that has "debunked" the suggestion it can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers. I have seen many say it definitely can and others saying they're not fullly convinced yet. That's not "debunking".

Our Brighton fella stayed in the alpine apartment left without symptoms, was back in UK over 1 week when unrelated Brits caught it in the same place he'd been.

The Japanese cruise ship states the original carrier got on ship on 20th Jan in Japan and off in Hong Kong on 25 before showing symptoms on 2 Feb 8 days later. For this reason the ship was quarantined and then others on the ship (10 initially) are diagnosed almost 10 days after the carrier had got off.

The normal winter flu is also transmissable during incubation. I'm not personally convinced that coronavirus being non transmissable during incubation has been debunked at all..... There's lots of official bodies and circumstantial situations that seem to point otherwise.

One problem is that some people get very mild symptoms that they will not attribute to the virus which is always concerning. The BBC stated yesterday that there was only anecdotal evidence that it could be passed by those not showing symptoms. With the super carrier this may have changed. It should be noted that not everyone will get it even if they have sustained contact with someone who has.

One major concern is that it mutates and increase in levels of infection and also severity.
The mortality rate is at 1% at the moment which is on par with seasonal flu. Thing to remember when comparing coronavirus with seasonal flu is that a significant part of the population has been vaccinated against seasonal flu, whereas we haven’t with the coronavirus.
A bad breakout of seasonal flu would cause no end of trouble, confusion and panic.


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