Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[atomised]

Positive test at sussex county hospital on Sunday according to argus. Patient with no risk factors

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I’m so sorry. You’re right. We are all going to die. Sorry for questioning it.

That was the one part of the post that didn’t contain facts, or comments that were backed by facts. I’m SO sorry I might’ve been 1% or 2% out.

Way to miss the point. There were 80,000 cases in China, it DEFINITELY took hold there. If people's theories about exponential growth of this virus were accurate, they'd be looking at MILLIONS of new cases by now. There was 40 yesterday.

It's now buggering off from China, Japan is also seeing a slow in new cases, and you would hope we'll see similar in Italy as the quarantine takes it's effect. All of this is very positive news for everyone.

Yes, China took slightly draconian measures, and I reckon it will take the virus going to higher numbers for people to accept the same here, but if push came to shove the absolute, absolute worst case scenario for 99.9% of us is that we have to sit in for a couple of weeks and watch netflix.

Alright mate. I am very level-headed about what is happening, but I think this 'its not a problem' attitude is just as dangerous for us. And from a purely scientific and logical standpoint I take exception to people dismissing the scare because the numbers are low.

You said 'If people's theories about exponential growth of this virus were accurate, they'd be looking at MILLIONS of new cases by now. There was 40 yesterday'. As you well know, the reason that the theories of exponential growth of the virus did not come to pass in China was because of the measures they took there. I missed the early part of your conversation and I am probably muddling you in with all the other 'blah blah its not serious' merchants, but I get seriously annoyed when people argue that draconian measures are not needed and hold up the drop in cases as evidence.

If you are arguing that we shouldn't be worried of a mass outbreak precisely because the government will bring in tough isolation measures, that is fair enough, much more nuanced.

But you hold up China's measures as 'slightly' draconian, when really anything that involves complete quarantine of a region of 50 million people forcing people to stay at home, the state organising the shipping and distribution of food supplies for those 50 million people, the rapid construction of new hospitals and conversion of stadiums and conference centres into hospitals, the moving of over 50,000 people into mass-quarantine centres, kids with cerebal palsy dying of starvation in their flat, because their parents weren't allowed back to feed them, the closure of every public meeting place, restaurant, transportation and the like - cannot be described as 'slightly' draconian. And we can all acknowledge that Europe doesn't have the infrastructure or mentality to do something like this.

As for the absolute worst-case scenario being a couple of weeks of enforced Netflix watching for the vast majority of the population? Well say we do have a mass outbreak like in China? Now I agree that the isolation efforts being made for everyone who tests positive and their contacts means that the spread in the UK will be more like in South Korea. But if it does go ballistic, a few weeks of enforced isolation (Wuhan has been under lockdown for 4 weeks and counting) will impact more than those who get sick or die. There are the 1.2 million NHS workers and 35,000 GP's for starters. Or the 850,000 people who receive long-term social care and the 1.5 million who provide it. Or many of the 5.8 million small businesses that will struggle with complete loss of income for one month, or many of the people who work for small businesses who are unable to provide the sick pay mandated. Or the 200,000 police officers who have to enforce the lockdowns. Or the 100's of thousands of people who are being treated for cancer. Or anyone who gets any other sickness at any point during the lockdown. Or indeed all the people who will subsequently lose jobs as the economy goes south.

Most will get through all that but it is quite a lot more to suffer than just a couple of weeks of enforced Netflix watching.

So thats why I dismissed your post.

I do agree that with the efforts being put in place globally we will probably avoid all of that, but the risks are evident and they don't go away by being blithely dismissed

 

[Thunder Bolt]

What is this "doctor" of which you speak? I went in around the middle of January and asked when the next standard appointment was. For a doctor - the end of February. For a paramedic, the middle of February. I had to get a 48 hour appointment by checking every so often if they had any left and then got a nurse practitioner. With follow ups with a paramedic. The paramedic writes the prescription and then has to wait for a real doctor to sign it. Last time I went, I was sat there waiting for half an hour and none of the people who come to call patients were a doctor.

It varies from surgery to surgery. I have been very lucky where I live to be able to get an appointment the majority of times when I need it.
Since this started, I managed to contract a nasty bout of shingles, which happened on a Sunday (although I felt unwell for a couple of days beforehand) I rang 111 at 9am, had a doctor visit the house at 19.30 that day to write out a prescription for Aciclovir, which my husband managed to collect from the emergency chemist near the Seven Dials. I then rang my own GP a couple of days later for a strong painkiller, which she sent across to the local chemist by email. I have had another prescription sent across following a phone call. The surgeries are working flat out and coping well imo.

 

[Dick Swiveller]

It varies from surgery to surgery. I have been very lucky where I live to be able to get an appointment the majority of times when I need it.
Since this started, I managed to contract a nasty bout of shingles, which happened on a Sunday (although I felt unwell for a couple of days beforehand) I rang 111 at 9am, had a doctor visit the house at 19.30 that day to write out a prescription for Aciclovir, which my husband managed to collect from the emergency chemist near the Seven Dials. I then rang my own GP a couple of days later for a strong painkiller, which she sent across to the local chemist by email. I have had another prescription sent across following a phone call. The surgeries are working flat out and coping well imo.

This problem predates this virus. I have had two urgent referrals in the last year and a half and both have been from nurse practitioners. I mean they did the job but I have no idea what you need to be wrong with you before you see an actual GP. Good job they aren't building hundreds of new hou.. oh.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Spain looks like it might be going same way as Italy - another 375 cases and 9 deaths today......

Backs up what I've been thinking for some time, that the virus is particularly contagious in areas where it is dry with mild weather and cool at night - possible that if its too hot, too cold or too wet (or all three or a combination) the virus is limited in how long it can stay viable outside of a human host.

But that inland mediterranean winter climate which is typical of northern Spain, northern Italy, northern Iran and Wuhan (I looked it up) seems especially favourable for the virus. Would be nervous for northern Syria and other parts of the middle east,other parts of the mediterranean region and parts of the USA - at least for those areas with large populations

 

[Blue3]

you make an excellent argument for private health to provide their own training programmes, and help fill the gap from inadequate recruitment from government.

your point about flying in foreign doctors ignore they need to be licenced, so i suggest you report these to the authorities.

now back to the schedule programme of Covid-19 doom/not doom

This proposal was put forward by the BMA in 2013 as of now 2019 it has not been made into law

With increasing reports of patients experiencing problems trying to track down and secure compensation from surgeons who ‘fly in, fly out’ (ie are not permanently based in the UK), the British Association of Aesthetic Plastic Surgeons (www.baaps.org.uk), today presents a clear-cut and cost-neutral solution. The scale of the problem is hard to estimate, they say, as many surgeons from abroad do not have indemnity policies based in this country.

According to consultant plastic surgeon and BAAPS President Rajiv Grover;

“There is a straightforward way of dealing with the lack of clarity that exists regarding which surgeons, from where, are doing what and how much in this country; and we have submitted a simple, three-fold solution to the Government:

Informed consent: stipulating that consultations must only be held with the surgeon who is ultimately performing the operation will immediately cut down on a large number of ‘fly-in-fly-out’ practitioners that depend on UK-based sales advisors and middlemen to recruit patients for them. It would simply become unfeasible to be travelling back-and-forth so often.
Insurance cover: it is essential that all surgeons are insured by either companies based in the UK or by policies that provide equivalent cover to British ones. They must specifically, unambiguously state that they cover work performed, as well as any costs should a legal case arise, in the UK.
Equivalent standards: since December 2012 it has become a requirement for all doctors to be appraised and revalidated by the General Medical Council. This means that the regulatory body will ensure that standards are still being met – and skills are maintained – on an annual basis regardless of how long, or where, training and qualifications were initially attained. At the moment, if a doctor or surgeon is recognised as a specialist in their own country, they are automatically eligible to be listed in the UK’s Specialist Register as well. It would be best practice if all doctors coming from abroad had to undergo the equivalent of revalidation when they receive their GMC registration, which allows them to work in the UK.

 

[Napper]

shame still at containment stage, no time off work just yet

 

[Thunder Bolt]

This problem predates this virus. I have had two urgent referrals in the last year and a half and both have been from nurse practitioners. I mean they did the job but I have no idea what you need to be wrong with you before you see an actual GP. Good job they aren't building hundreds of new hou.. oh.

It's the number of people rather than the number of houses. The problem is that doctors are fed up to the back teeth of being overworked GPs.
Hundreds of them are leaving practices, some going back to where they came from. Sorry about the Daily Fail link, but it does give numbers from Aug 2019.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...ledges-Government-tackle-downward-spiral.html

 

[peterward]

Spain looks like it might be going same way as Italy - another 375 cases and 9 deaths today......

Backs up what I've been thinking for some time, that the virus is particularly contagious in areas where it is dry with mild weather and cool at night - possible that if its too hot, too cold or too wet (or all three or a combination) the virus is limited in how long it can stay viable outside of a human host.

But that inland mediterranean winter climate which is typical of northern Spain, northern Italy, northern Iran and Wuhan (I looked it up) seems especially favourable for the virus. Would be nervous for northern Syria and other parts of the middle east,other parts of the mediterranean region and parts of the USA - at least for those areas with large populations

Without seeing anything based in science fact, I honestly believe your assertion is right. Simply because I've been to Thailand numerous times on holiday with the Mrs, its not as advanced as Japan or S Korea and they were one of the worst immediately after this all kicked off (as the largest number of tourists there come from China and it was Chinese new year).

Since when it hasnt been that bad at all. I doubt, theyve got some radical system for depleting the virus. Being daily 30+deg and humid I would guess is the big difference.

 

[Rodney Thomas]

Spain looks like it might be going same way as Italy - another 375 cases and 9 deaths today......

Backs up what I've been thinking for some time, that the virus is particularly contagious in areas where it is dry with mild weather and cool at night - possible that if its too hot, too cold or too wet (or all three or a combination) the virus is limited in how long it can stay viable outside of a human host.

But that inland mediterranean winter climate which is typical of northern Spain, northern Italy, northern Iran and Wuhan (I looked it up) seems especially favourable for the virus. Would be nervous for northern Syria and other parts of the middle east,other parts of the mediterranean region and parts of the USA - at least for those areas with large populations

I think its just a matter of proximity to Italy. Here are some more latest figures which I don't think back up your theory:

Switzerland 374 +42
Netherlands 321 +56
UK 321 +43
Sweden 248 +45
Belgium 239 +39

Hardly Mediterranean climates and the sort of numbers we were seeing only a matter of days ago here in Spain.

 

[peterward]

I think its just a matter of proximity to Italy. Here are some more latest figures which I don't think back up your theory:

Switzerland 374 +42
Netherlands 321 +56
UK 321 +43
Sweden 248 +45
Belgium 239 +39

Hardly Mediterranean climates and the sort of numbers we were seeing only a matter of days ago here in Spain.

Its all here globally:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As discussed above, initially Thailand was one of worst outside China, it still today is only at 50, when nearly all of major European countries with exception of Italy are now in many hundreds, early thousands and growing. Malaysia has loads of ethnic Chinese there and still much lower than many EU nations.

Can only hope for a warm spring as it would appear the warmer weather there is helpful.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I think its just a matter of proximity to Italy. Here are some more latest figures which I don't think back up your theory:

Switzerland 374 +42
Netherlands 321 +56
UK 321 +43
Sweden 248 +45
Belgium 239 +39

Hardly Mediterranean climates and the sort of numbers we were seeing only a matter of days ago here in Spain.

I'm hardly saying its impossible to spread elsewhere, just that it feels like its spreading quicker in areas with that kind of climate. Today Spain +376, and percentage wise a much bigger leap than those other countries.

The rest of Europe has similar temperatures to the affected area, not as warm in the day of course, but a lot wetter - could it be as simple as the virus more likely to be washed away? I don't know.

I do think its striking that it hasn't spread very much in hot countries, I think its clear it doesn't like that part of the world, and also wondering why the very cold northern areas are also not seeing a great outbreak.

But time will of course tell. I was struck with that Spain figure though, +376, when Germany, from a higher initial number of cases, is just +124 today, or Japan just +28 from a similar number of total cases a couple of days back.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Its all here globally:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As discussed above, initially Thailand was one of worst outside China, it still today is only at 50, when nearly all of major European countries with exception of Italy are now in many hundreds, early thousands and growing. Malaysia has loads of ethnic Chinese there and still much lower than many EU nations.

Can only hope for a warm spring as it would appear the warmer weather there is helpful.

warm dry spring = Milan winter weather = massive outbreak

 

[peterward]

I'm hardly saying its impossible to spread elsewhere, just that it feels like its spreading quicker in areas with that kind of climate. Today Spain +376, and percentage wise a much bigger leap than those other countries.

The rest of Europe has similar temperatures to the affected area, not as warm in the day of course, but a lot wetter - could it be as simple as the virus more likely to be washed away? I don't know.

I do think its striking that it hasn't spread very much in hot countries, I think its clear it doesn't like that part of the world, and also wondering why the very cold northern areas are also not seeing a great outbreak.

But time will of course tell. I was struck with that Spain figure though, +376, when Germany, from a higher initial number of cases, is just +124 today, or Japan just +28 from a similar number of total cases a couple of days back.

Germany not reported any deaths? wonder why, they must have had some with over 1000 positive

 

[peterward]

warm dry spring = Milan winter weather = massive outbreak

Better get some loo rolls in then

 

[Change at Barnham]

Germany not reported any deaths? wonder why, they must have had some with over 1000 positive

2 deaths reported in Germany, 4 in UK.

 

[Wozza]

Anyone else hear that 500 (confirmed cases) is the trigger point for closing UK schools? Obviously that will have knock-on effect on workers/business.

 

[Nathan]

999 confirmed cases in Spain. Looks like they could be heading for the same as Italy with the numbers, just a week or two behind.

 

[peterward]

999 confirmed cases in Spain. Looks like they could be heading for the same as Italy with the numbers, just a week or two behind.

lackadaisical UK wont be far behind

 

[Balders]

A positive Stat for the UK (at the moment obviously) is that our Incidence per 1M of Population is only 4.7 and plenty of other countries have worse Incidence rates - is it because we are better at containing, is being an Island helping us or have we just got lucky?