Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[super-seagulls]

I've just seen a post on Facebook suggesting the uk govenment is causing panic over the Corana Virus to distract us from Brexit and climate change. Many people are agreeing.

I really don’t know why anyone uses Facebook.
I mean sure, I did for a bit, in 2007. But soon stopped. Complete waste of time. My wife always quotes shit posted on it. Blah, blah effing blah.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

It would be great news, but I can't see any evidence of that. I've read up about the different 'strains'. I put that in inverted commas because it's not agreed that there are different strains, as the mutations examined so far are so similar that they are still considered by some experts to be the same 'strain'.

If a virus is too deadly to spread, it needs to kill off it's host before that host spreads it. That does not appear to be the case for those who die. They don't catch the virus, and drop dead. They catch it, and possibly start spreading it before even showing symptoms. They then get it and spread it further, before becoming ill enough to require a high level of care.

There's also the fact that the virus has spread to places like Italy and Iran where it's spread quite a lot, and also killed quite a number of people, which together suggests that a deadly strain is spreading.

And the black death: would you like to argue:
a) that it wasn't that deadly, so it spread a lot?
or
b) that is was deadly, so it didn't spread much?

Because it's pretty clear that it spread a lot, and was seriously deadly. It killed over half the people in Europe!

The study was by peking university with university of Shanghai. Their findings were of two strains. The more aggressive accounting for 70% of cases in China though evidence suggested that it had peeked as was diminishing. The new cases were believed to be the much milder strain.

Iran and Italy are weird. I suspect that Iran has had shed loads of cases than they are admitting to. Italy has a very high mortality rate. If you didn’t know better it was as if it kicked off in an old people’s home or hospital.
It could be case that the aggressive strain is in Italy and Iran but the rest of us has the milder one ....


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[atomised]

So, we've bounced over the 200 mark. 206 confirmed cases now

 

[Triggaaar]

The study was by peking university with university of Shanghai. Their findings were of two strains. The more aggressive accounting for 70% of cases in China though evidence suggested that it had peeked as was diminishing.

If 70% of cases were aggressive, then that shows that it was spreading despite having a reasonably high fatality rate. The reason the cases have been diminishing in China is because so much of the country in on lock down. Obviously the virus won't spread much if everyone just stays at home for the next 6 months, but that's not a realistic option. China too will have to let people out and go back to work at some point.

Iran and Italy are weird. I suspect that Iran has had shed loads of cases than they are admitting to. Italy has a very high mortality rate. If you didn’t know better it was as if it kicked off in an old people’s home or hospital.

I agree that it's unlikely we're getting accurate info from Iran. And while I suspect the information from China is pretty good (not because I have faith in them, but because experts from around the world have been around China and are backing up their findings), the way China are dealing with the problem is extremely 'weird' (weird in the it's very different to the majority of countries, not weird in a bad way).

It could be case that the aggressive strain is in Italy and Iran but the rest of us has the milder one ....

If there are two specific strains (which has not been confirmed), then it seems likely that countries will end up with both of them.

 

[Swansman]

The study was by peking university with university of Shanghai. Their findings were of two strains. The more aggressive accounting for 70% of cases in China though evidence suggested that it had peeked as was diminishing. The new cases were believed to be the much milder strain.

Iran and Italy are weird. I suspect that Iran has had shed loads of cases than they are admitting to. Italy has a very high mortality rate. If you didn’t know better it was as if it kicked off in an old people’s home or hospital.
It could be case that the aggressive strain is in Italy and Iran but the rest of us has the milder one ....


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I think the average age in Italy is really high, if I'm not wrong. Fair bit of smoking as well.

That said the numbers in Italy are really worrying. 4636 cases, 197 dead, and worse: only 523 cured. And from what I've read, the coronavirus usually take two weeks or so to kill its host. There's a possibility that this disease is pretty deadly and that the Chinese were either really good at treating the virus or is just plain lying in order to get their industry and export back on its feet.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

China too will have to let people out and go back to work at some point.


Even if the number of cases in Iran are far higher than reported, I'm not convinced it can be called mild.

The Chinese have already started letting some workers back to work and kids back to school in some areas previously locked down. And I don't think he meant that the strain in Iran was mild?

 

[Triggaaar]

The Chinese have already started letting some workers back to work and kids back to school in some areas previously locked down.

Let's see how that goes.

And I don't think he meant that the strain in Iran was mild?

You're right, I misread it. Given that many of our cases are from people who have returned from Italy, I don't see how we've got a different strain. If there are two reasonably contagious strains, we'll get both.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Let's see how that goes.

You're right, I misread it. Given that many of our cases are from people who have returned from Italy, I don't see how we've got a different strain. If there are two reasonably contagious strains, we'll get both.

Agreed. [emoji106]

 

[Lower West Stander]

Just back from shopping in Manchester City Centre with my daughter.

It was rammed and in four hours I saw 2 masks - an Asian couple behind me in a queue. There were old people, young people, middle aged people all going about their business in a perfectly normal way. Bars and restaurants packed. It was in total contrast to everything I’m seeing and hearing in the media and you wouldn’t believe this virus even existed.

I’ve said it on here before but i getting really fed up of all this panicky crap. It seems like most others are too given what I’ve seen today.


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[Bozza]

Just back from shopping in Manchester City Centre with my daughter.

It was rammed and in four hours I saw 2 masks - an Asian couple behind me in a queue. There were old people, young people, middle aged people all going about their business in a perfectly normal way. Bars and restaurants packed. It was in total contrast to everything I’m seeing and hearing in the media and you wouldn’t believe this virus even existed.

I’ve said it on here before but i getting really fed up of all this panicky crap. It seems like most others are too given what I’ve seen today.


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Not sure I’ve seen any suggestion anywhere that people aren’t just going about their business*, but it sounds like you read/watch different things to me.


(* - they’re just topping up with pasta and bog rolls whilst they’re doing it)

 

[Official Old Man]

Fancy a trip to Qatar? My mate flew out yesterday and had a plane almost to himself.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

If 70% of cases were aggressive, then that shows that it was spreading despite having a reasonably high fatality rate. The reason the cases have been diminishing in China is because so much of the country in on lock down. Obviously the virus won't spread much if everyone just stays at home for the next 6 months, but that's not a realistic option. China too will have to let people out and go back to work at some point.

I agree that it's unlikely we're getting accurate info from Iran. And while I suspect the information from China is pretty good (not because I have faith in them, but because experts from around the world have been around China and are backing up their findings), the way China are dealing with the problem is extremely 'weird' (weird in the it's very different to the majority of countries, not weird in a bad way).

If there are two specific strains (which has not been confirmed), then it seems likely that countries will end up with both of them.

The other reason it may be diminishing is that the strain has run it course .... for now.

You are correct in that we can’t lockdown for 6 months. I don’t believe we could do it for 6 days if I’m honest. The problem with the lockdown is that everyone has to do it. The other issue is that with the weaker strain not everyone shows symptoms.

Italy has had around 200 deaths, the bbc say the average age of deaths is 81 ....... I think one of the problems for Italy is that grand parents tend to live with extended families and so it must be very difficult to protect themselves.




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[Triggaaar]

The other reason it may be diminishing is that the strain has run it course .... for now.

What does 'run it's course' mean? It doesn't just get bored and stop. It's not diminishing around the world, just in China, where everyone is in isolation.

The other issue is that with the weaker strain not everyone shows symptoms.

Where are you getting that from? We're not sure how many strains there are, and whether any one is weaker, and what strain those who don't show symptoms have.

 

[dangull]

So its 2 deaths in the last 48 hours from a couple of elderly people with underlying problems, who may have succumd shortly afterwards anyway.

Yes, I am petrified

 

[Nobby]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

So its 2 deaths in the last 48 hours from a couple of elderly people with underlying problems, who may have succumd shortly afterwards anyway.

Yes, I am petrified

You’re a bit thick aren’t you

 

[Mellotron]

Just going to drop a bit of positive news in here, for balance;

China are now looking to reopen schools in formerly affected areas, and new cases dropped into double figures today (99). At current rate, they could well be coronavirus free in the foreseeable future.

 

[Mellotron]

I’m with you. If it’s as infectious as everyone seems to say, why has nobody else in Brighton had it since the initial outbreak? There were several days between the super spreader returning to Hove and being isolated. He surely should have infected many others. In fact, if it’s as infectious as people say, why have there ‘only’ been 80,000 cases over the last three months in China, a country of 1.5bn?

Quite. If what people were saying re: contagion levels were even close to true, we’d be looking at 100,000s of cases in China by now, whereas it’s actually disappearing there.

 

[Swansman]

Just going to drop a bit of positive news in here, for balance;

China are now looking to reopen schools in formerly affected areas, and new cases dropped into double figures today (99). At current rate, they could well be coronavirus free in the foreseeable future.

Good I guess, but seems very unlikely it wont reappear. We'll see.

 

[Mellotron]

Good I guess, but seems very unlikely it wont reappear. We'll see.

Once it’s gone, why would it? Genuine question - SARS and MERs haven’t reappeared, have they?

Unless someone’s going to be stupid enough to eat infected bat from a fish market again?