Lewes to Uckfield railway, feasibility study..

[bigc]

It's not that they cant it's more a case of it not being financially viable to do so, There's bigger irons in the fire for the money to be spent on rather than worrying about a little branch line that was only closed down because nobody was using it anyway.

But things have changed since 1969, haven't they?

After all wasn't there rumours they were going to shut the Brighton-Lewes line in the 1970s because of low passenger service.

But it wouldn't just be opening the branch line would it, it would be helping to enhance the Uckfield to L.Bridge service and therefore get more customers.

 

[British Bulldog]

With the population rocketing thanks to free Europe,i think alot more poeple will use that line.Especially the green bridgade.How long has it been shut?

The more people that use it the more trains you require fella and where are you going to send them? It's all very well people thinking you can just increase the service willy nilly but you've got to be able to turn these trains around somewhere and all the terminus stations are allready clogged up with trains waiting to get in and out as it is. It all goes down to that old saying of " you cant get a quart into a pint pot "

 

[Lord Bracknell]

When I was a transport planner at ESCC, I got heavily involved in a lot of the discussions and the studies into Lewes-Uckfield that were commissioned. The conclusion has ALWAYS been the same. This goes right back to a calculation done by BR Southern Region in the early eighties - literally on the back of an envelope, which I kept in my desk at work. All that has happened over the years is that the numbers have got bigger.

If you can ignore the construction costs (which are very significant), a re-opened line is worth having. It will make "an operating profit" - i.e extra fares revenue will exceed the extra running costs of the trains.

But once you require profit from the line to pay for the capital costs of building it, you will never achieve enough money to pay for it. And that, I'm afraid, is a FACT.

It goes without saying, of course, that (with the exception of toll roads and river crossings) no-one has EVER suggested that a new road has to generate a cash income from its users to pay for its construction.

In my view, the ONLY possible way to get the financial projections into the right shape to re-open the line right would be to include an obligation to fund the work as part of some other big, big, big project. Connex once came up with a plan to run ALL Hastings - Eastbourne - Lewes - London trains via Uckfield - which would have freed up lucrative spare capacity on the Brighton Main Line and generated enough extra cash income to fund the construction costs of re-opening Lewes - Uckfield and electrifying Uckfield - Hurst Green. But that plan was rejected in favour of sacking Connex from the franchise and awarding it to Southern.

Another possible option would be to let housing developers build 20,000 new homes in the Uckfield area and charge them a levy of about £8,000 a dwelling to cover the re-opening costs. Setting aside the collapse in the housing market, that was always extremely unpopular with the opponents of massive housing growth in the southeast (ie just about everyone, including all of the local councils).

But, if people know their history, they will know that the railway companies were huge players in the expansion of house-building around London in the 1920s and 1930s.

 

[Gully]

Silly question, but can the rail infrastructure at the London end take any increase in traffic generated by reopening this line, or is it already operating to capacity?

Have to say that this is a great idea though, any attempt to get more people off roads and onto rail is a worthwhile.

 

[bigc]

I'm glad you arrived on the scene LB, I remembered you knew all that.

So one good thing could have come out of the Connex franchise!

Do you ever think it will happen? Like I say, I'm surprised they don't have some wealthy old benefactors in the Wealden Line campaign.

 

[algie]

Silly question, but can the rail infrastructure at the London end take any increase in traffic generated by reopening this line, or is it already operating to capacity?

Have to say that this is a great idea though, any attempt to get more people off roads and onto rail is a worthwhile.

Gully you old clown.Your up late sunshine

To anwser your question what about Selhurst.It has a depot there i'm sure it does.

 

[bigc]

Silly question, but can the rail infrastructure at the London end take any increase in traffic generated by reopening this line, or is it already operating to capacity?

Have to say that this is a great idea though, any attempt to get more people off roads and onto rail is a worthwhile.

I don't think there would be extra traffic, the two an hour would just start at Lewes or Newhaven for example instead, therefore have more points to pick up passengers. Not wishing to destroy my own argument but I'd hope it wasn't two-coach trains doing that!

 

[Lord Bracknell]

It's not that they cant it's more a case of it not being financially viable to do so, There's bigger irons in the fire for the money to be spent on rather than worrying about a little branch line that was only closed down because nobody was using it anyway.

Another thing that was in my desk at ESCC was a copy of a survey of use of the Lewes - Uckfield line in the 1960s. This showed that there were hardly any London traffic on the line. The major users were students attending school and college in Lewes. On this route, the bus service was far more popular than the train - mainly because the buses went closer to more people's homes and workplaces than the train ever did. London commuting, via Lewes - Uckfield was practically non-existent. If the line did re-open today, journey times would be such that almost all communters would choose the faster route, via Haywards Heath and Gatwick.

 

[bigc]

Another thing that was in my desk at ESCC was a copy of a survey of use of the Lewes - Uckfield line in the 1960s. This showed that there were hardly any London traffic on the line. The major users were students attending school and college in Lewes. On this route, the bus service was far more popular than the train - mainly because the buses went closer to more people's homes and workplaces than the train ever did. London commuting, via Lewes - Uckfield was practically non-existent. If the line did re-open today, journey times would be such that almost all communters would choose the faster route, via Haywards Heath and Gatwick.

So you doubt it will ever happen then?

 

[British Bulldog]

Silly question, but can the rail infrastructure at the London end take any increase in traffic generated by reopening this line, or is it already operating to capacity?

Have to say that this is a great idea though, any attempt to get more people off roads and onto rail is a worthwhile.

More or less all the available slots are taken now and any increase in traffic will just lead to even more delays in the event of track,signalling or train failure's.

 

[Ernest]

So you doubt it will ever happen then?

Never happen, more chance of Albion winning the league than the line reopening

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Silly question, but can the rail infrastructure at the London end take any increase in traffic generated by reopening this line, or is it already operating to capacity?

As things stand right now, probably not at peak times. But once the 24 trains-an-hour Thameslink scheme gets built, the situation might change, especially if commuters who live south of London find that their jobs re-locate to the Kings Cross area or to places that can be readily reached from a beefed-up Farringdon interchange (which is a real - and viable - possibility).

 

[British Bulldog]

To anwser your question what about Selhurst.It has a depot there i'm sure it does.

It does but thats where they berth, clean and repair the empty trains, You can gain access to it from either selhurst or norwood junction but using those stations as termination points is next to bloody useless i'm afraid.

 

[Gully]

More or less all the available slots are taken now and any increase in traffic will just lead to even more delays in the event of track,signalling or train failure's.

That is precisely what I meant, surely if this project went ahead then the rail operators would look to increase the numbers of services from the south coast, to add weight to the viability and profitability arguments.

I believe that a new service has started from Wrexham and Shrewsbury to London, although it travels on some of the west coast route it goes by some circuitous route into Marylebone instead of Euston...possibly because it is cheaper but probably because Euston is already running to capacity.

 

[bigc]

As things stand right now, probably not at peak times. But once the 24 trains-an-hour Thameslink scheme gets built, the situation might change, especially if commuters who live south of London find that their jobs re-locate to the Kings Cross area or to places that can be readily reached from a beefed-up Farringdon interchange (which is a real - and viable - possibility).

Well there is all that land around Kings Cross which is going to be developed. Sainsburys are moving their headquarters there from Holborn. It will be interesting to see how that regeneration continues.

 

[withdeanwombat]

Get a load of old steam buffs to open a Bluebell type railway,and hey presto! a working line and a tourist attraction run by volunteers who possibly could attract Eurofunding.

The fares would be astronomical of course,but passengers could make that chuffing sound and pretend whistle and have a jolly good time of it.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

So one good thing could have come out of the Connex franchise!

The Connex proposal wasn't all good. Hastings and Eastbourne (and Lewes) weren't at all keen on losing their direct and reasonably frequent service to Gatwick Airport.

 

[bigc]

The Connex proposal wasn't all good. Hastings and Eastbourne (and Lewes) weren't at all keen on losing their direct and reasonably frequent service to Gatwick Airport.

I bet. Which in turn would have put more pressure on the Brighton Main Line again but this time straight from Brighton.

Talking of services, do you think Southern will axe that Ashford train now that the majority of Eurostar goes to Ebbsfleet anyway.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Well there is all that land around Kings Cross which is going to be developed. Sainsburys are moving their headquarters there from Holborn. It will be interesting to see how that regeneration continues.

To be honest, I don't know.

What I do know, however, is that the City of London Corporation were extremely worried during the early discussions about the Thameslink 2000 project that the scheme would lead to an exodus of firms from the Square Mile. They never had the bottle to come out publicly and oppose TL2000 outright, but I saw them at first hand badmouth the project to anyone who would listen.

 

[bigc]

To be honest, I don't know.

What I do know, however, is that the City of London Corporation were extremely worried during the early discussions about the Thameslink 2000 project that the scheme would lead to an exodus of firms from the Square Mile. They never had the bottle to come out publicly and oppose TL2000 outright, but I saw them at first hand badmouth the project to anyone who would listen.

Well I will look forward to seeing that

From Threadneedle Street to Caledonian Road!