[Politics] How many seats will the Tories get ?

[schmunk]

I think he threw a 7 as he wants out

What a load of crap



s

 

[rogersix]

Tories will get over 150 seats that is a shue in

Shoo

 

[GJN1]

Suppose Labour did get 450 seats and the Tories fewer than 100 - where do all the Labour Party MPs sit in the Commons. Do they take up space on the other side?

 

[Hugo Rune]

I definitely agree that there are many tory voters, who aren't accounted for in the polls.
However I don't think there is much motivation for them to vote, this time around.
There are a lot of factors for this.

• Starmer doesn't scare them enough
• The result is already conceded
• Reform is an option
• Sunak doesn't inspire confidence
• The Tories don't deserve it

These factors will prevent the silent Tories vote from having much of an impact at the polling station.

I agree with this.

Watching Peston last night, it appears that the vast majority of ‘undecided voters’ are those who voted Tory in the last election.

Whilst many of them may vote Tory if they were put on the spot, it’s possible that a huge chunk of them will just stay at home. The Tories have already conceded this election. Sunak is such a nasty little piece of work and has absolutely ****ed this election for the Tories on an almost daily basis. At the end of the day, the Tory soul is a selfish one. It’s all about No.1. What’s in it for them to place their vote for a party that’ll get destroyed? It might be better to let them take this redwash in the most painful way possible and then re-set the party with a view to becoming electable in 2029. For that to happen, all the shit needs to be flushed away.

They are going to get massacred. I truly believe Blair’s landslide in ‘97 will be beaten.

 

[sparkie]

Who knows ?

None ?

 

[The red pepper kid]

couldnt care less, they all look after themselves, wont be long and labour will be caught doing what they shouldnt , they are entitled prats to the very last one, liars, thieves and vagabonds

 

[Trevor]

I'll go 111

 

[Brovion]

...

Survation are predicting that this Parliament could also change it's make up in other radical ways. The percentage of women MPs could go from 34% to as high as 42%. Not parity, but as near as it's ever been before. Statista are also saying that a three figure Labour majority would be likely to make this the most ethnically diverse UK Parliament ever. Given the number of MPs that didn't stand this time and the comments made about the working environment by some of the younger female MPs that left, let's hope that whatever the political make up on Friday, the place can be more representative of the country and a less toxic environment for all who work there.

That would be great. What would be even better (although I don't think it would happen) is if the official opposition weren't the Tories, but a Lib-Dem/Green alliance.

 

[Glawstergull]

Every ducking stool in every village and town in the country.

 

[TomandJerry]

Probably more than imagined

Unless the shy Tory voters stay home

 

[Comrade Sam]

I've knocked on over a hundred doors in Chingford and Woodgreen in the last month, Ian Duncan Smith's seat and before that Norman Tebbit. I found 3 Tories, one was out with a poster in his window and the others were batshit crazy pensioners that thought IDS was the best Prime Minister this country never had. I walked away when they started on immigrants. I have drawn the conclusion that the countries remaining voters have tartan carpet.

 

[Happy Exile]

I agree with this.

Watching Peston last night, it appears that the vast majority of ‘undecided voters’ are those who voted Tory in the last election.

Whilst many of them may vote Tory if they were put on the spot, it’s possible that a huge chunk of them will just stay at home. The Tories have already conceded this election. Sunak is such a nasty little piece of work and has absolutely ****ed this election for the Tories on an almost daily basis. At the end of the day, the Tory soul is a selfish one. It’s all about No.1. What’s in it for them to place their vote for a party that’ll get destroyed? It might be better to let them take this redwash in the most painful way possible and then re-set the party with a view to becoming electable in 2029. For that to happen, all the shit needs to be flushed away.

They are going to get massacred. I truly believe Blair’s landslide in ‘97 will be beaten.

While in many respects this would be amazing, the worry is so few seats for the Tories that we see a Tory/Reform coalition led by Braverman and Farage as their way of resetting to be electable. That's a scenario a moderate Tory councillor spoke with me about as a concern of many in the party if Reform get any kind of traction at the expense of the Tories.

I'd rather, I think, a strong enough Tory party to weaken him than a weak Tory party dependent on him.

 

[Simster]

My guess is 141.

 

[Pevenseagull]

Having stuck a tenner on 150-199 I'm going for





149

 

[Gwylan]

While in many respects this would be amazing, the worry is so few seats for the Tories that we see a Tory/Reform coalition led by Braverman and Farage as their way of resetting to be electable.

I can't see this. Farage has spent the last year slagging off the Tories, saying how he wants to "destroy them". I can't see him being welcomed with open arms, no matter how heavily they lose.

There are basically three types of Tories: right-wing imperialists who dislike foreigners, sound money Thatcherites and one-nation pro-EUers. The first group would happily embrace Farage but the other two wouldn't. It wouldn't be a happy merger.

 

[beorhthelm]

I can't see this. Farage has spent the last year slagging off the Tories, saying how he wants to "destroy them". I can't see him being welcomed with open arms, no matter how heavily they lose.

likewise cant see him want to be involved in an established organisation. goes against his whole schtick being anti-establishment, cant really claim that in the second oldest political party.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

There are forces going in both directions.

The case for the tories doing better than polls predict ......

The boundary changes

The shy tory effect

The case for the tories doing worse than polls predict

Agree with the fella saying, there's anecdotal evidence pollsters have made adjustments to the tories, in practice, giving them lots of the people saying they are undecided.

The big one. The rise of tactical voting. Loads of traffic for stop the tories type websites and loads of online visibility for who is best placed to stop the tories in each seat. In addition, the parties seem to have been more ruthless than ever at concentrating on their targets.

The even bigger one. I think the shy tory is dead. Little point being embarrassed to be associated with the party of self over society when there's another lot being even more brazen about it. We will now see the shy Reform Ltd voter.


Im going to stick my next out and say, I think the tories will win 57 seats. An extinction level event

 

[pocketseagull]

I suspect Farage would jump at the chance of taking over the Conservatives taking inspiration from Trump and the Republicans.

 

[martin tyler]

I think it will be 130-160 area myself. This conservative gov is done and needs a full revamp but suspect in 8 years or so they will be back.

 

[HangletonGull]

Going under 3 figures , I’m with you gov on this go for anywhere between 50 and 99