How do Birm have one point less but Cardiff still the same?
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
How many points for the play offs ?
- Thread starter Huple
- Start date
How do Birm have one point less but Cardiff still the same?
Leicester Seagull
New member
- Oct 24, 2009
- 218
When I look at our fixtures, and our away form, I have a horrible feeling that we're just going to miss out this year. It looks great at the moment, but feels like we're going to drop away over the coming weeks, with this being our high point for the season.
Most of our home games look very tough, and even away against the likes of Burnley and Barnsley, (let alone West Ham), with our recent performances, and the nature of this league, it's not hard to conceive that we get little from these games either.
I hope I'm wrong though, and either way, it's been an amazing season! Just hope we can keep everything together over the summer (especially Gus!) and improve next season.
*please let this be wrong*
Most of our home games look very tough, and even away against the likes of Burnley and Barnsley, (let alone West Ham), with our recent performances, and the nature of this league, it's not hard to conceive that we get little from these games either.
I hope I'm wrong though, and either way, it's been an amazing season! Just hope we can keep everything together over the summer (especially Gus!) and improve next season.
*please let this be wrong*
Lord Bracknell
On fire
The trick is to base predictions on the average points per game that each club is likely to achieve over the rest of the season. I base my predictions on a combination of home and away form AND form against teams in the top half / bottom half of the table. Trying to predict the outcome of every single game that each club has to play (which is the BBC predictor way) is a mug's game, because most of those predicted results will be wrong.
The challenge that the Albion have to overcome is the fact that we have games to play against the teams that are 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th in the table. Form so far says that we have averaged only 1.33 points per game against teams in the top half of the table. This suggests that the matches against Middlesbrough, Reading, West Ham and Birmingham will deliver only 5 points. But 3 of those games are at home (where we are getting 2.0 points per game, on average), so we might hope for 8 points from Middlesbrough, Reading, West Ham and Birmingham.
My cautious prediction is that we will, in fact, get only 5 points from those 4 games. But we'll get 6 points from our other three games against Burnley, Watford and Barnsley.
The predicted final table, set out above, is based on applying the same system to the future games of every club in the division. I've got a nerdy spreadsheet that does all the maths.
Ees complicated.
That is complicated!! Just about agree about predicting results will mostly be wrong ... except that my success rate is 52% (LOL) .. that said it still leaves such the whole thing up in the air unless the 48% errors have an equal impact across the 6 contenders which they won't. I absolutely buy the logic on those 4 games and my each game predictor has 5 points too and 6/7 points from the other 3 looks equally reasonable.
I guess where we differ is the absolute number needed for play offs and I've a more pessimistic view on how the results will go elsewhere and think it will take 74/75. No way is this in our hands though .. we're going to need the inconsistency of the others to continue the way they are (which your logic naturally builds in), then we can be very optimistic
kevtherev
Well-known member
With four home games, regardless of whom there against out of seven left. If we don't make the play off's now, I think everybody within the club from the chairman, to the management staff, to the players, will see it as a total failure. Even if a large majority of fans are happy just to stay up in our first season back. Personally, I feel with the money that Poyet has spent and the size of the squad he now has, anything less than a play off position now, would be a complete f*** up.73 points will be enough and our goal difference is also starting to look quite good, compared to some around us.
After games in hand, that's pretty much exactly the order of the teams now. I'm guessing Middlesbrough will slip a bit, but it's so close anything could happen.
I completely disagree
It doesn't look complicated, it looks like you've got teams scoring roughly the same amount of points as they already have, and finishing in the position they're currently in (on points/game basis). There's no allowing for one team coming good or one team falling away.
kevtherev
Well-known member
I completely disagree
A lot of people will. But it's very under played on here just how much wonger Poyet has spent....Look at what he has at his disposal....Vicente/Razak/Assuin/Lualua/Buckley/Cms/Vokes.....most clubs would consider all of them Prem players and iv'e missed out a lot of fans favorites. There has been a lot of money spent on this my friend, more than any Albion manager has ever dreamed of having since Mullery....Puts McGhee keeping us in this league into perspective, playing at Withdean with Virgo as a striker.
Free, Free, Free, £1m?, £1m, £2.5m, Free = £4.5m. Not in the top 6 spenders of the division. And we haven't had them all season.
Er, what? Vicente, yes when fit, but he's missed most of the season. Raz & Assulin, only as they improve, not necessarily now. Kaz not yet, Buckley not sure, CMS didn't attract bids from the premiership and he hasn't improved on his reputation from last year, and Vokes is not considered good enough for premiership strugglers Wolves.
A lot less than others.
Completely irrelevant, we need to compare to the value of other teams we're competing against, not our teams from a decade ago.
kevtherev
Well-known member
There is no such thing as a free transfer. It just means the money goes elsewhere and not to the clubs.
Sussex Nomad
Well-known member
I think we should write off West Ham as a nil poi and then have a bonus when we get something at the Boleyn.
HawkTheSeagull
New member
75 SHOULD get us into the play-offs, but no lower than 70 - all depends on how other teams perform.
Sussex Nomad
Well-known member
Where's [MENTION=12595]Acker79[/MENTION] when you need him, we need an historic points for 6th place over the past decade for the Championship play offs.
This is a guess the future thing, not a stats of events that have happend. Though for what it's worth:
Paris
Well-known member
I think we'll get a draw or a victory at Upton Park. They're drawing a hell of a lot of their games at the moment. Their fans are apply a lot of pressure to both the management and players as they expect an instant return to the top flight.
Bring back Guy Butters!
Bring back Guy Butters!
That's simply not true. There will obviously be some cases where a player gets a signing on fee, but not all of them (I doubt Vicente did, due to the short length of contract and rehabilitation required) and the other 3 players I said were free are all loan signings, so we're not going to have paid a transfer fee of any sort there either. So of the four I said were free, what evidence do you have to back-up the idea that we paid out significant sums for each of them?
kevtherev
Well-known member
Anyone who thinks Vicente came here without any sort of signing on fee or agents fees, is living in cloud cuckoo land. As for the loans, who knows what % of their wage we are paying. But they are not playing here for nothing, that is for certain...anyway we could argue the toss all day, im off to the pub. But I can assure you we are not scrapping the barrel on wages or transfer fees. This team has cost a small fortune to assemble, just look at the sheer numbers of players involved. I suppose Reyes and Mattock are playing here for nothing as well? and some people even think Cms turned down £25k a week at West Ham to come here for £6k, but then some people still believe in Santa Claus as well.
Last edited:
You really have no idea, but he's just one of the 4 I said were free transfers and you're disputing them all.
It's even more certain we're not paying a lot. Man City don't have a reputation for charging championship sides a lot for giving their players some match practice.
There are a lot of players, so we probably are paying a fair chunk in wages, but that is short term (ie, we haven't had that many players that long, and several are loans so will go again soon). But CMS on £25k? I highly doubt it. What proof do you have he was offered that at west ham?
So are we scraping the barrel - no. And a fortune is relative, even one player is a fortune for most of us. But there are plenty, like West Ham, Southampton, Leicester, Birmingham, that are spending more. There should be a stato here that can tell us the biggest spenders, in order.