How many points for the play offs ?

[kevtherev]

You really have no idea, but he's just one of the 4 I said were free transfers and you're disputing them all.
It's even more certain we're not paying a lot. Man City don't have a reputation for charging championship sides a lot for giving their players some match practice.
There are a lot of players, so we probably are paying a fair chunk in wages, but that is short term (ie, we haven't had that many players that long, and several are loans so will go again soon). But CMS on £25k? I highly doubt it. What proof do you have he was offered that at west ham?

So are we scraping the barrel - no. And a fortune is relative, even one player is a fortune for most of us. But there are plenty, like West Ham, Southampton, Leicester, Birmingham, that are spending more. There should be a stato here that can tell us the biggest spenders, in order.

You keep going on about proof and what do I know ?
Well what do you know?...I know for a fact that a lot of dough has been spent and although that is not a real worry,it is not a bottomless pit and a return of sorts will be expected.

 

[Triggaaar]

You keep going on about proof and what do I know ?
Well what do you know?...I know for a fact that a lot of dough has been spent and although that is not a real worry,it is not a bottomless pit and a return of sorts will be expected.

You're saying "anything less than a play off position now, would be a complete f*** up" because we've spent a lot, but you have no idea how much we've spent compared to others.

We're close with several other teams and a tough run in. In fact, just to show how much shit you're talking, the bookies don't think we'll finish top 6. They'll give you 5/4 (odds against) and they're not know for being generous. So the bookies think we'll finish outside the top 6, but you think that will be a complete f*** up, and the club will see it as a total failure

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Need another 15 points (4 wins , 3 draws) to be certain

 

[kevtherev]

You're saying "anything less than a play off position now, would be a complete f*** up" because we've spent a lot, but you have no idea how much we've spent compared to others.

We're close with several other teams and a tough run in. In fact, just to show how much shit you're talking, the bookies don't think we'll finish top 6. They'll give you 5/4 (odds against) and they're not know for being generous. So the bookies think we'll finish outside the top 6, but you think that will be a complete f*** up, and the club will see it as a total failure

Do you gamble much?..i do 5/4 to finish in play offs is not exactly long odds.I would suggest that means they think we will.

 

[kevtherev]

You're saying "anything less than a play off position now, would be a complete f*** up" because we've spent a lot, but you have no idea how much we've spent compared to others.

We're close with several other teams and a tough run in. In fact, just to show how much shit you're talking, the bookies don't think we'll finish top 6. They'll give you 5/4 (odds against) and they're not know for being generous. So the bookies think we'll finish outside the top 6, but you think that will be a complete f*** up, and the club will see it as a total failure

Just cheked on oddschecker and only west ham and Birmingham are shorter odds...so what was you saying about what the bookies think?

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

I have a feeling we may even finish 3rd.

The only team I fear in the play-off's should we make it are Hull. However I think the two-leg match/mentality may suit Gus.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

It doesn't look complicated, it looks like you've got teams scoring roughly the same amount of points as they already have, and finishing in the position they're currently in (on points/game basis). There's no allowing for one team coming good or one team falling away.

The real problem is that I can see no way of predicting which team (if any) will perform significantly better or worse than expected in their last 7 or 8 games of the season. My method shows, at season-end, the teams in 4th and 9th position being separated by only 3 points. At the moment, they are separated by 4 points, but Hull City have played one fewer game than the Albion. It's been like this for weeks. Predictions are very difficult to make, beyond saying that the top three will comprise Southampton, Reading and West Ham.

It might even prove to be difficult to predict the outcome when we get to half-time at Barnsley.

 

[warmleyseagull]

This is the points total and number of wins for 6th place in last 9 seasons:

11 75

 

[warmleyseagull]

start again:

year points wins
11 75 20
10 70 19
09 74 21
08 70 18
07 75 21
06 75 21
05 73 21
04 73 21
03 74 20

Said in previous thread that 21 wins basically guarantees PO play off place - this season 20 likely to be enough given how close it is.

 

[Triggaaar]

Do you gamble much?..i do 5/4 to finish in play offs is not exactly long odds.I would suggest that means they think we will.

I understand odds, you clearly don't. If you bet on us to finish top 6, you'll get more than your money back. That means the bookies think we're less than 50% likely to do it.

Just cheked on oddschecker and only west ham and Birmingham are shorter odds...so what was you saying about what the bookies think?

And reading, and Southampton. And apart from those 4 teams, the bookies think 5 of us are close for the last 2 spots.

We are odds against, how you can try and argue with that I have no idea.

 

[Triggaaar]

The real problem is that I can see no way of predicting which team (if any) will perform significantly better or worse than expected in their last 7 or 8 games of the season.

If you could predict it, you'd be one of a kind, and rich.

Predictions are very difficult to make

Indeed. We're all guessing, and I think it's about guessing which teams are on the up, which have lost form, which squads have improved/worsened, what the run-ins are like, and how each team will handle the pressure.

I think our squad has improved and we're in good form, but our run in is harder than average. Too close to call and of course most of us will be disappointed if we don't make the play-offs now. But it certainly won't be a total failure.

 

[kingcole]

Do you gamble much?..i do 5/4 to finish in play offs is not exactly long odds.I would suggest that means they think we will.

Erm - if you gamble and that's your view, you really should quit now and never place a bet again.

5/4 means they think we won't. Keeping is simple, Evens or 1/1 means it's a coin toss.

For them (as you call them) to think we will make the play off's the first number has to be smaller than the second number. ie. 4/5

Gawd help you!

 

[kevtherev]

Erm - if you gamble and that's your view, you really should quit now and never place a bet again.

5/4 means they think we won't. Keeping is simple, Evens or 1/1 means it's a coin toss.

For them (as you call them) to think we will make the play off's the first number has to be smaller than the second number. ie. 4/5

Gawd help you!

Don't talk crap...your talking about four teams making the play offs out of a possible 8 or 9. Saints and Reading not included. West Ham and Birmingham are odds on(first number smaller, than the second as you so cleverly put it,lol)...and we are third favs at 6/5 with bet365.....So if we are third favs, and their are another five teams below us. Then how on earth do they think we wont?...If they thought we wont, we would be 2/1 or 5/2 or even bigger....I've probably forgotten more about betting than you will ever know.

 

[kevtherev]

Erm - if you gamble and that's your view, you really should quit now and never place a bet again.

5/4 means they think we won't. Keeping is simple, Evens or 1/1 means it's a coin toss.

For them (as you call them) to think we will make the play off's the first number has to be smaller than the second number. ie. 4/5

Gawd help you!

So in a eight horse race, you think more than three horses are worse than evens?....Gawd help you?

 

[kevtherev]

I understand odds, you clearly don't. If you bet on us to finish top 6, you'll get more than your money back. That means the bookies think we're less than 50% likely to do it.

And reading, and Southampton. And apart from those 4 teams, the bookies think 5 of us are close for the last 2 spots.

We are odds against, how you can try and argue with that I have no idea.

They can't make all the teams, odds on. They would not have a industry.The FACT is we are the third favs to make the play offs. Which means on the book they clearly think we will. I can't see how you can argue with that. West Ham(1), Birmingham(2) then us (3)...that how they are pricing it...End of debate.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

With four home games, regardless of whom there against out of seven left. If we don't make the play off's now, I think everybody within the club from the chairman, to the management staff, to the players, will see it as a total failure. Even if a large majority of fans are happy just to stay up in our first season back. Personally, I feel with the money that Poyet has spent and the size of the squad he now has, anything less than a play off position now, would be a complete f*** up.73 points will be enough and our goal difference is also starting to look quite good, compared to some around us.

It has been stated by Poyet and Tanno in a couple of interviews that we had the 13th or 14th budget in the Championship. I think the chairman would be happy enough with a top ten finish if we don't make the playoffs.

 

[finlaych]

Boro home 3 point

Burnley away 3 points

Reading home 1 point

West Ham away 0 points

Watford home 3 points

Birmingham home 1 point

Barnsley away 3 points

92 Southampton
86 Reading
------------------------------------
83 West Ham United
76 Brighton & Hove Albion
74 Birmingham City
73 Blackpool
------------------------------------
71 Middlesborough
71 Cardiff City
71 Hull City

 

[Dirk Gently]

I think we should write off West Ham as a nil poi and then have a bonus when we get something at the Boleyn.

They've been so poor, so short of confidence and under so much pressure over recent weeks that I can see things going even worse for West Ham as the end of the season gets closer. The weight of expectation seems to be hanging around their necks like a millstone.

 

[Weststander]

start again:

year points wins
11 75 20
10 70 19
09 74 21
08 70 18
07 75 21
06 75 21
05 73 21
04 73 21
03 74 20

Said in previous thread that 21 wins basically guarantees PO play off place - this season 20 likely to be enough given how close it is.

Yep, Sky mentioned 70 was the lowest cut off, and 75 the highest, in the history of this format.

So between 8 and 13 pts from the last 7 games.

Just keep trying to win, game by game, and hopefully we'll get in.

A home win vs M'boro, and revenge against a poor Burnley team, with 6 points would be amazing. No injuries or illnesses by the time of these 2 games will assist.

 

[Weststander]

They've been so poor, so short of confidence and under so much pressure over recent weeks that I can see things going even worse for West Ham as the end of the season gets closer. The weight of expectation seems to be hanging around their necks like a millstone.

Not helped by the awful Allerdyce tactics, with no flowing football to make the most of their PL squad.