[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[abc]

It feels a little strange that who forms the next government is a done deal but who forms the opposition is not.
As previously mentioned, Labour will win a majority and there is no such thing as a super majority. Winning a majority is the usual outcome of a GE. However, the possibility of no one in opposition having more than 100 seats is unprecedented.
Not sure what the implications of this are but I think we are in for a very different 5 years in Westminster and not just because we have a labour government (which in itself is unusual)

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

Postal voted as I am going away tomorrow for a Psychobilly festival in Spain until Monday, I have not voted Tory or Nazi Reform however I am not sure I like the idea of a complete Labour landslide, Atilla posted something which I think has some relevance and I hope he does not mind me popping it up here.

"An openly fascist party with its roots in the collaborators of the Nazi Vichy regime has just secured 33% of the vote in the first round of the French election.
Two things must happen now.
Firstly, the entire opposition must unite to stop them.
Secondly, the resulting coalition government, in which the Left will be the majority partner, must stop kowtowing to capital, reverse Macron’s reforms and tackle the massive social problems which have led France to the point where previously solidly Left working class areas are now voting for fascists.
That is the only way to stop the unspeakable drift towards hell.
And there is a huge lesson here for an incoming Labour government, as so many are saying inside and outside the party. Tackle the terrible social problems you have inherited straight away, not by tinkering but by transforming, or reap the same whirlwind here.
I don’t make anywhere near as many binary statements as I used to, but here’s one. Labour has a choice: either anger the rich or the poor. Anger the poor, and we’ll be the next France"

 

[Lenny Rider]

It feels a little strange that who forms the next government is a done deal but who forms the opposition is not.
As previously mentioned, Labour will win a majority and there is no such thing as a super majority. Winning a majority is the usual outcome of a GE. However, the possibility of no one in opposition having more than 100 seats is unprecedented.
Not sure what the implications of this are but I think we are in for a very different 5 years in Westminster and not just because we have a labour government (which in itself is unusual)

Regardless of anyone’s specific political leanings on here, a ‘super’ majority with a small potentially ineffective opposition is surely damaging to the UK’s democracy?

Whilst it’s clearly time for a change, and the Tories have brought a lot of this on themselves, will five years of Starmer ‘Carte Blanche’ really make the UK a better place?

 

[ROSM]

Regardless of anyone’s specific political leanings on here, a ‘super’ majority with a small potentially ineffective opposition is surely damaging to the UK’s democracy?

Whilst it’s clearly time for a change, and the Tories have brought a lot of this on themselves, will five years of Starmer ‘Carte Blanche’ really make the UK a better place?

When parties have significant seat numbers, the opposition tends to come from within (look at the tories with the erg).

There simply aren't enough ministerial positions to keep every ambitious mp happy.

If there is a significant majority it will be on the tories heads and blaming the winner for winning isn't really a good thing.

 

[beorhthelm]

Same I'm expecting Tories to get >100 seats, wouldn't be surprised if >150...

can get 5/1 to 6/1 for >150. evens on >100.

while it's tempting, reckon the turnout will do for them getting near 150.

 

[medwayseagull reborn]

Regardless of anyone’s specific political leanings on here, a ‘super’ majority with a small potentially ineffective opposition is surely damaging to the UK’s democracy?

Whilst it’s clearly time for a change, and the Tories have brought a lot of this on themselves, will five years of Starmer ‘Carte Blanche’ really make the UK a better place?

Anything will make this country a better place than the last fourteen years.

 

[sparkie]

Have the Tories really reach a point where they think that stating outrageous lies will benefit them because for every person who hears the interviewer's rebuttal calling it out, there will be another voter who only hears the lie and believes it?

This is the only explanation I can think of. Presumably they have seeded the narrative with claims about media bias. But it isn't just the BBC that is calling them out. It is all media, apart from the Putin one (GBNews). And only sorts who were born right wing and are congenitally racist (wankers) still 'trust' GBNews, so these are votes Labour will never get.

I'd almost feel sorry for there Tory politicians, were they not so dislikable. Maria Caulfield, I ask you? Into the sea with them!

They want as many of the people who have said they are voting Reform as possible to put their cross in the Tory box when actually faced with the ballot paper.

 

[sparkie]

Looking really good for Labour we should be able to vote everything through with this huge majority, I just hope we don't over spend with all the excitement.
Could Reform really get 89 seats ? I was told they have had a massive turnout in the midlands. Can people really be buying in to jungle Nigel? If all goes their way they could end up the second biggest party... How are they doing this?

We have just found the heaviest lifting 'if' in the entire history of the internet.

NSC be proud.

 

[AlbionBro]

Here in Kings Norton (Northfield constituency) I wouldn't be surprised if Reform win although prediction poll puts Labour at 99%.

99% does seem pretty safe, but the Reform lot are beating their drums pretty hard....surely not.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Regardless of anyone’s specific political leanings on here, a ‘super’ majority with a small potentially ineffective opposition is surely damaging to the UK’s democracy?

Whilst it’s clearly time for a change, and the Tories have brought a lot of this on themselves, will five years of Starmer ‘Carte Blanche’ really make the UK a better place?

No it won't.
They will tinker around the edges, unable to tackle the real problems, like most who have gone before. Whatever their intentions, there will always be a necessity to find ever increasing ways of raising taxation and like those before, will direct that at business. Sure, there will be the usual soundbites and headlines aimed at the general public but the burden will fall on the business sector. VAT, Corporation Tax and two different fuel duties, creating the highest pump prices in Europe are crippling industry.
One pound in every five paid back to the government every quarter, is killing the hospitality industry. One pound in every five paid back to the government on company profits is killing investment and recruitment. Transport costs are astronomical in a society that now demands its purchases delivered by four wheels in 24 hours.
Help business and you help everybody.

 

[AlbionBro]

We have just found the heaviest lifting 'if' in the entire history of the internet.

NSC be proud.

Only joining in with the Tories being destroyed theme, condolences to you are wearing a blue rosette.

 

[sparkie]

Only joining in with the Tories being destroyed theme, condolences to you are wearing a blue rosette.

I've already said twice on NSC that I will be voting for Henry Jones ( LibDem ).

Sadly for me polling sites reckon he has little chance, but he will still get my vote as I need to officially register my disapproval of Labour, the Torries and Reform.

 

[BBassic]

Feels a bit like Christmas Eve did when I was a kid. Right down to a bloke who wears red showing up with a bag full of gifts (P45s for various Tory MPs).

 

[Machiavelli]

I suspect that all the extremists on the centre won't read this, but they should:

France’s ‘hard left’ has been demonised – but its agenda is realistic, not radical | Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty

The New Popular Front will improve ordinary people’s lives – and it’s an effective, economically sound alternative to the far right, say authors Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty

www.theguardian.com

 

[NorthstandRacoon]

View attachment 185059

In recent UK General Elections, one-third of registered voters did not cast their votes.

If these non-voters were a political party, they would have secured the most votes in the last election.

This Thursday, make your voice heard. Use your vote.

If you don't show up at the polling station and mark your ballot, your opinion remains unknown.

At the last election, only 0.3% of those who went to a polling station spoiled their ballot papers. Whether this was intentional or accidental is unclear. What is clear is that no party achieved a clear majority of votes.

The British Election Study reveals that there's an 80% chance a 70-year-old voted in the last election, compared to just a 45% chance for a 20-year-old.

Voter turnout among ethnic minorities is five percentage points lower than the average, likely due to lower registration rates.

Homeownership influences registration, and in every region of England except the North East, white British households are more likely to own homes than all ethnic minority households combined.

According to the Electoral Commission, the 2010 general election saw a 23 percentage point gap between the turnout of the richest and poorest income groups. Those with more money are more likely to determine the election outcome.

If we all don’t vote, we lose our voice. We forfeit our right to complain, to express our opinions, and to influence our political leaders.

Don’t let others decide the election for you. Whatever your views, turn up and cast your vote.

Spot on

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Postal voted as I am going away tomorrow for a Psychobilly festival in Spain until Monday, I have not voted Tory or Nazi Reform however I am not sure I like the idea of a complete Labour landslide, Atilla posted something which I think has some relevance and I hope he does not mind me popping it up here.

"An openly fascist party with its roots in the collaborators of the Nazi Vichy regime has just secured 33% of the vote in the first round of the French election.
Two things must happen now.
Firstly, the entire opposition must unite to stop them.
Secondly, the resulting coalition government, in which the Left will be the majority partner, must stop kowtowing to capital, reverse Macron’s reforms and tackle the massive social problems which have led France to the point where previously solidly Left working class areas are now voting for fascists.
That is the only way to stop the unspeakable drift towards hell.
And there is a huge lesson here for an incoming Labour government, as so many are saying inside and outside the party. Tackle the terrible social problems you have inherited straight away, not by tinkering but by transforming, or reap the same whirlwind here.
I don’t make anywhere near as many binary statements as I used to, but here’s one. Labour has a choice: either anger the rich or the poor. Anger the poor, and we’ll be the next France"

Angering the poor, sadly, will be done by not lowing taxes, not spending more on the NHS, and not Stopping The Boats. Some of this is inevitably not going to happen soon if at all. But I don't subscribe to populist pandering to prejudices. Labour needs to sort out the state of the nation and the economy and the public services and it will take time and measured intervention not gimmicks and playing to the gallery.

It is widely reported that the leader of the French socialists is way left of Corbyn. I do sometimes wonder why Attila always gets behind the hopeless left candidate and moans about being betrayed by the effective centrist candidates (such as Blair and Starmer). A classic example of tolerating only a viewpoint that maps to one's own. I suspect I am (aspirationally) in fact far to the left of Attila (who has always had an anarchist streak to his very specific iconoclastic viewpoints, rather than conventional socialist, and I am very much not an anarchist). But I can't demand to have all my hopes and dweams fulfilled - "or else" - and I can't just shrug my shoulders and sulk when labour evolves a centrist leadership that may be a little more cautious than I wish. It isn't about me. The future of the UK isn't about me.

The various left sects who all hate each other have contributed to 14 years of tory misrule, giving labour a bad name (when the Corbyn gang won the Golden Ticket). My leftist brother has had nothing to say about the GE, although he's gone on numerous 'stop the war' (pro Palestinian) marches this year. FFS. Support moderate labour if you want change, and don't be too greedy for it. Best route to this is a massive labour majority. Not going on silly marches. Self indulgence and faux self righteousness. Sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Big majority, please. Bring it on.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

They want as many of the people who have said they are voting Reform as possible to put their cross in the Tory box when actually faced with the ballot paper.

As part of their genius election strategy, they wheeled out Johnson to 'do a Bellingham'.

Man on R5 now. "The Tories have been talking rubbish, rubbish and rubbish"

 

[A1X]

I suspect that all the extremists on the centre won't read this, but they should:

France’s ‘hard left’ has been demonised – but its agenda is realistic, not radical | Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty

The New Popular Front will improve ordinary people’s lives – and it’s an effective, economically sound alternative to the far right, say authors Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty

www.theguardian.com

Genuine question, how can you be an "extremist in the centre" (sic)?

 

[Machiavelli]

Genuine question, how can you be an "extremist in the centre" (sic)?

You just parrot out that anything other than the current state of affairs constitutes extremism of the left or the right (or, citing the horseshoe theory, that they're ultimately the same as one another). Such parroting only tends to occur when the current state of affairs is failing badly whereas, when things are going reasonably well, there doesn't tend to be the hype around extremism, as it can be more or less ignored, or is fixated elsewhere than the 'extremism' (of course) of the left and the right, eg Islamic fundamentalism. For those that parrot as such, there's never, ever a left or a right, only a centre-left versus an extreme/far left or a centre-right versus an extreme/far right.
If you want a more technical answer as you might with an MA in History, it's all to do with hegemony.

 

[pb21]

can get 5/1 to 6/1 for >150. evens on >100.

while it's tempting, reckon the turnout will do for them getting near 150.

Have a small bet for fun on 100-149 when odds were 3.95 (decimal), on Betfair. 150-199 is currently 8.8, which is tempting as an insurance bet!