[Politics] General Election 2024 - 4th July

[Bodian]

I would still be staggered to see it, but if the Tories aren't even in 2nd place then it will be a huge realignment of our politics. All those TV programmes which have (usually) 1x Labour and 1x Tory would have to go 1x Labour and 1x Lib Dem, the Tories would not longer be guaranteed spots on shows like Question Time under the BBC's rules for panel selection. The new Tory leader would have 2 questions at PMQs as opposed to 6 for Ed Davey. It would be a massive paradigm shift and I just don't think we appreciate how weird it would actually be.

Guardian latest polling predictions (electoral calculus I think). Wouldn't take many reform votes to switch a handful from blue to orange.

 

[Eeyore]

Guardian latest polling predictions (electoral calculus I think). Wouldn't take many reform votes to switch a handful from blue to orange.

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That's an astonishing poll.

I'd ask for anyone not voting Tory (which is about 75% it seems) what are the three main reasons for this ?

I can't help thinking it's less to do with policy and more to do with conduct.

I'm not sure that Labour will be better economically. I just can't forgive the Tories for their corruption, their cronyism and the utter contempt their actions show for us all.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Iain Duncan-Smith may have been handed a lifeline in his Chingford and Woodford Green seat, number 10 on Labour's target list, where the previous Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen, who recieved 22,000 votes in 2019, was deselected and replaced. Shaheen has decided to run as an Independent, are we going to see the vote split and IDS survive?

 

[wellquickwoody]

That's an astonishing poll.

I'd ask for anyone not voting Tory (which is about 75% it seems) what are the three main reasons for this ?

I can't help thinking it's less to do with policy and more to do with conduct.

I'm not sure that Labour will be better economically. I just can't forgive the Tories for their corruption, their cronyism and the utter contempt their actions show for us all.

Although I do normally vote Tory, not this time. I have long said that 2 terms Tory followed by 1 term Labour probably creates a good balance between fiscal prudence and public infrastructure/service investment. Not that I always vote 2/1 etc, I would struggle to vote at all this time if Corbyn was still Labour leader!

The absolute lack of morality, empathy and simple ability shown by the current Tory party is worrying in my view. The lies, mist Ruth’s and self interest really makes me think that the UK political scene is beginning to turn into a mirror of the US. I do hope not.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Believe it when I see it. I know it’s fun to speculate about record lows etc and hope it happens, but this always happens with unpopular governments and it’s never as bad as the worst polls or as good as the best. They’ll get a shoeing but they aren’t going to end up with 20-odd seats. Double it as a minimum

Looking at the latest YouGov poll and others, you do wonder how bad it can get.

Canada's 1993 election is starting to loom large as a comparison - the governing and deeply unpopular Progressive Conservatives went into the election with 156 seats out of 294, and ended up winning just 2 seats. Their share of the vote dropped from 43% in the previous election to 16%. The Liberal party took over, increasing their seat share from 81 to 177, 32% rising to 41%, but it was a small right-wing party that did the damage, taking 18% of the vote and 52 seats. The party was, rather presciently, called 'Reform'.

The Progressive Conservatives never recovered and disappeared entirely in 2003 when it merged with the Canadian Alliance, a successor of the Reform Party, to create the new Conservative Party of Canada.

 

[Nobby]

very nearly, right? the budget didn't even go to a vote let alone acted upon. the budget moved the bond market, some pensions got skittish the BoE stepped in. it never had to use the allocated budget, as the fear of major impact subsided in days. this is a long way from crashing the economy. reality was gas prices and commodities had already surged through 2022, inflation was going up before and after, interest rates followed up. it's not a defense of Truss, who was so bad she was found out and kicked out by her own party. it's about perpetuating myths because some have said the same mantra for so long people believe it's true. just like claims Labour crashed the world economy. though no one cares really, i suppose, it suits to continue.


mortgages are high because all the central banks have raised interest rate to beat inflation. news i follow tells me US are paying >7% mortgages, with base rate of 5.5%, not because of Truss actions a year before.

fair enough, directly screwed those renewing a mortgage in the weeks after. appreciate that would be a significant personal effect.

They took a while to fall back.
Truss is an absolute loon who caused a massive loss of confidence in the British economy
And she still blames everyone else

 

[Nobby]

The Telegraph is now panicking, (excellent), (bstds), that the latest YouGov poll is showing the Tories at 19% with Reform at 17%

But still crazy that 36% of the population don’t think the current Tory party are far enough to the right.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The Telegraph is now panicking, (excellent), (bstds), that the latest YouGov poll is showing the Tories at 19% with Reform at 17%

But still crazy that 36% of the population don’t think the current Tory party are far enough to the right.

Under this poll, the Tories would slip to third, with the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition. Farage would narrowly take Clacton, and any further bleeding would quickly destroy the parliamentary Tory Party entirely. They are down to 47 seats under this scenario, from 120 under Yougov's previous poll. Drop another 4% and the Tories would win just five seats (East Wiltshire, Beaconsfield, North Dorset, South West Hertfordshire, and Windsor)

 

[Simster]

Looking at the latest YouGov poll and others, you do wonder how bad it can get.

Canada's 1993 election is starting to loom large as a comparison - the governing and deeply unpopular Progressive Conservatives went into the election with 156 seats out of 294, and ended up winning just 2 seats. Their share of the vote dropped from 43% in the previous election to 16%. The Liberal party took over, increasing their seat share from 81 to 177, 32% rising to 41%, but it was a small right-wing party that did the damage, taking 18% of the vote and 52 seats. The party was, rather presciently, called 'Reform'.

The Progressive Conservatives never recovered and disappeared entirely in 2003 when it merged with the Canadian Alliance, a successor of the Reform Party, to create the new Conservative Party of Canada.

I was living in Canada at the time and remember it well. The main difference is that here the SNP are in decline having peaked the previous term whereas in Canada the Bloc Québécois actually became the official opposition. TBF, I don't think the SNP can ever become the official opposition as they only claim to represent 10% of the population, whereas French Canada is well over double that (with most of them being Quebecois rather than Acadian).

 

[Simster]

The Telegraph is now panicking, (excellent), (bstds), that the latest YouGov poll is showing the Tories at 19% with Reform at 17%

But still crazy that 36% of the population don’t think the current Tory party are far enough to the right.

This is the problem that the sane two thirds of the country need to see. It's all very well everyone revelling in right wing parties splitting the vote in the way that left parties have done for decades, but as soon as enough people see the Tory party as electable, we will be back to the Tories hoovering up all right wing votes again. Reform of course do garner support from the hard of thinking disaffected people who genuinely think they are the answer to Pakistani rape gangs and unemployment, and they are not all natural Tory voters - but the Tories don't need all of Reform's vote share to get back in power with a thumping majority.

The FPTP voting system allows this to happen. It needs changing. Wouldn't we all prefer to simply vote for who we think would do the best job, rather than tactically? I can't tell you how disappointing Kier Starmer is, yet there is no way I'm voting for any other party.

 

[ROSM]

This is the problem that the sane two thirds of the country need to see. It's all very well everyone revelling in right wing parties splitting the vote in the way that left parties have done for decades, but as soon as enough people see the Tory party as electable, we will be back to the Tories hoovering up all right wing votes again. Reform of course do garner support from the hard of thinking disaffected people who genuinely think they are the answer to Pakistani rape gangs and unemployment, and they are not all natural Tory voters - but the Tories don't need all of Reform's vote share to get back in power with a thumping majority.

The FPTP voting system allows this to happen. It needs changing. Wouldn't we all prefer to simply vote for who we think would do the best job, rather than tactically? I can't tell you how disappointing Kier Starmer is, yet there is no way I'm voting for any other party.

There are a few things overall.

- Whatever govt is in needs an effective opposition.
- the tory members who voted in Boris and then Truss were part of the issue (a bit like members who voted in ed m and then magic grandpa for labour). I mean you only have to look at the tories in London and the current conservative party, plus his personal life, to see what a disaster he is but it was all so predictable
- all major change in British society comes from the centre. Even thatcher when elected was seen as a centrist (strange to believe) due to her pro europe amd emancipate the poor campaign
- starmer is being too cautious. I hope he can be bolder in power. But he is better than the others and having suffered a green council twice in brighton and hove, I don't fancy them as a govt no matter how great catoline lucas is

 

[sparkie]

Under this poll, the Tories would slip to third, with the Lib Dems becoming the official opposition. Farage would narrowly take Clacton, and any further bleeding would quickly destroy the parliamentary Tory Party entirely. They are down to 47 seats under this scenario, from 120 under Yougov's previous poll. Drop another 4% and the Tories would win just five seats (East Wiltshire, Beaconsfield, North Dorset, South West Hertfordshire, and Windsor)

I look forward to the leadership contest.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I was living in Canada at the time and remember it well. The main difference is that here the SNP are in decline having peaked the previous term whereas in Canada the Bloc Québécois actually became the official opposition. TBF, I don't think the SNP can ever become the official opposition as they only claim to represent 10% of the population, whereas French Canada is well over double that (with most of them being Quebecois rather than Acadian).

Yep, its true the smaller parties votes were heavily regionalised, Reform in the West and BQ in the East. In the UK, if the Tories did slip down to 16% with Reform taking 18% it would result in a mega- tsunami for Labour with 500+ seats.

Playing games for a moment, in that scenario 100 MPs from the left of Labour could split off and form the official opposition whilst leaving Labours majority intact.

Probably getting a bit ahead of myself here lol

 

[Simster]

Yep, its true the smaller parties votes were heavily regionalised, Reform in the West and BQ in the East. In the UK, if the Tories did slip down to 16% with Reform taking 18% it would result in a mega- tsunami for Labour with 500+ seats.

Playing games for a moment, in that scenario 100 MPs from the left of Labour could split off and form the official opposition whilst leaving Labours majority intact.

Probably getting a bit ahead of myself here lol

Interesting times but my money is on it settling down and the Tory party eventually reigning in their traditional vote. If that happens I hope to God they do it by rooting out corruption, attracting a new band of vaguely talented politicians and most importantly, by pushing back on the constant pandering to the utter bell ends in Reform Ltd.

 

[ROSM]

Yep, its true the smaller parties votes were heavily regionalised, Reform in the West and BQ in the East. In the UK, if the Tories did slip down to 16% with Reform taking 18% it would result in a mega- tsunami for Labour with 500+ seats.

Playing games for a moment, in that scenario 100 MPs from the left of Labour could split off and form the official opposition whilst leaving Labours majority intact.

Probably getting a bit ahead of myself here lol

That last point is interesting. And all because the tory party feel the way to win is to go further right. It will make a true social democratic centrist party out of Labour that could reign for 20 years.

Years ago when I studied sociology and politics, my course head kept on about how one day this could happen and the tories would eat themselves. We never believed them. It's never been closer as even in 2001 and 2005 the tories were still only marginally right of centre by and large

The tories have a hope but it needs cool heads and a quick volte face

 

[Motogull]

BBC's debate on Friday line up:
Conservative: Penny Mordaunt
Labour: Angela Rayner
SNP: Stephen Flynn
Lib Dems: Daisy Cooper
Green: Carla Denyer
Deformed: Nigel Farage
Plaid Cymru: Rhun ap Iorwert

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

BBC's debate on Friday line up:
Conservative: Penny Mordaunt
Labour: Angela Rayner
SNP: Stephen Flynn
Lib Dems: Daisy Cooper
Green: Carla Denyer
Deformed: Nigel Farage
Plaid Cymru: Rhun ap Iorwert

No one from Mebyon Kernow?

 

[ROSM]

BBC's debate on Friday line up:
Conservative: Penny Mordaunt
Labour: Angela Rayner
SNP: Stephen Flynn
Lib Dems: Daisy Cooper
Green: Carla Denyer
Deformed: Nigel Farage
Plaid Cymru: Rhun ap Iorwert

The return of farage v mishal hussein. He didn't handle it well on the Today programme earlier this week.

Mordaunt will see this as an audition as the next tory leader. She is witty and may win the public over. Rayner has most to lose and greens, snp, plaid and tories will all be aiming at labour as there main opponent.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

That last point is interesting. And all because the tory party feel the way to win is to go further right. It will make a true social democratic centrist party out of Labour that could reign for 20 years.

Years ago when I studied sociology and politics, my course head kept on about how one day this could happen and the tories would eat themselves. We never believed them. It's never been closer as even in 2001 and 2005 the tories were still only marginally right of centre by and large

The tories have a hope but it needs cool heads and a quick volte face

It sounds like a nice idea having a social democratic centrist party that rules for ages. The problem with this is that all governments have a shelf life, and eventually the electorate kicks them out. If the gov is in the centre, by definition that means the next gov will be far to the right, or far to the left. At least when you bounce from centre left to centre right you keep the extremists out.

France is facing this as Macron took over French politics by killing both the moderate right and moderate left and positioning himself slap bang in the middle. Worked for ages, but he's unpopular now and will surely lose next time. But the traditional left and right parties in France have been consigned to the dustbin, clearing the way for Le Pens far right to become the most likely alternative.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I hope they've got the beepometer ready in case Pottymouth starts cussin'.