General Election 2015

[Buzzer]

Cameron is even more unpopular among the Tory party than Miliband is among his[/B] but CMD is safe for quite a while as there's no plausible candidate to replace him:

I don't think that's true.

Whilst it's true that there's dissension in the ranks, the whispering campaigns and barely hidden contempt for Miliband just isn't occurring with Cameron. You don't have major regional leaders resigning from the Tory Party as you do with Labour (Scotland) and that hatchet job on Miliband's leadership that turned up in the recent New Statesman - there's nothing like that in the Telegraph or Spectator.

 

[jimbob5]

Labour and Liberals are just as ideologically opposed on many issues, just different ones to Tory/Liberal. thats why they didn't like the idea of getting into bed with Labour 4 years ago.

That might have been the official line but a Lib/Lab coalition would not have given a workable majority, NC, who was respected at the time did not want to work with GB, a lot of the Labour old guard were ready for a rest and DC was a fresh face and had a hint of the big umbrella approach that T Blair had when the latter had more credibility; so the different ideologies of Lab and Lib was not really the factor. BTW I can't think of examples where Lib and Lab are opposite.

 

[Gwylan]

that's not what the polling says. true he hasn't comprehensibly wide support (if such a thing exists in the conservative party), but iirc the Tory member polling is in the high 60's or 70's. Miliband cant even get 50% approval rating from his own membership and mid 20's for general public.

Sorry, I was thinking more among MPs. Cameron has lost two to UKIP, has faced a record number of rebellions and faces the prospect a few more defections. Miliband has got some backbench sniping but no-one's actually left yet. But, yes, among the wider public and party members, Cameron has his nose in front

 

[Simster]

Incidentally, why isn't that 6th form school boy who is running the Lib Dems not yet under pressure from his own party members? Is it because there aren't actually any party members left?

 

[Buzzer]

Incidentally, why isn't that 6th form school boy who is running the Lib Dems not yet under pressure from his own party members? Is it because there aren't actually any party members left?

I think the answer is that no-one wants the job. It's the most poisoned chalice of them all. Lib Dems are going to have a disastrous next election, they'll be lucky to return anything north of 25 MPs regardless of who is leader. Best to let Nick Clegg lead them into that disaster and then get rid of him than get rid of him now and take the fall for his mistakes in 6 months time.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

I think you're wrong on the mansion tax BTW, we grossly undertax land and property in this country - that's not some exclusive left wing idea either, Tory commentator Simon Jenkins also calls for higher taxes on large houses, the difference being that he wants it applied to council tax. I agree with him - the mansion tax is another example of Labour's desire to control.

There are a number of fundamental problems with a mansion tax though :

1. Property is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. There is no real science to valuing a property. Unless a property is actually sold nobody knows its true value. It's why council tax is seen as so unfair.
2. There is no practical way of leveling out the tax to take account of vast regional differences. For £800k last year I could have purchased a Scottish manor with 16 bedrooms, 30 acres of land and a swimming pool. In London it would have barely got a small family house.
3. It takes no account of someone's ability to pay. Just because someone could afford a property say 15 years ago doesn't make them rich now. Houses in areas such as Hangleton and Lancing have risen in price considerably over the last few years as people have looked to housing stock in cheaper areas. In six years my house has risen in 'value' ( I use that word with reservation after my point 1 ) by 32%. That outstrips inflation by over 12%. I couldn't afford to buy my house now.
3. At Labour's suggested £2m threshold there will be loads of ordinary people on very average salaries caught and many a pensioner.

It would be much fairer to tax hard wealth like income. I would agree with a second property tax though.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Labour like to treat the electorate like little children. It was clear to me 7 years ago what a real mess they had made of things. The party that used to be for the worker, is now the party of mass immigration. Well done for losing another voter.

 

[Don Quixote]

Five year terms are too long.

 

[beorhthelm]

There are a number of fundamental problems with a mansion tax though :

the most significant problem you missed is that it isnt going to raise anything like what they expect it too, especially once you account for defered payments. i read they'd only get 20% of the target in the first year, which means a £1.3Bn hole in the spending plans based on it.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The challenge for Labour is to come up with some blinding polices. The Tories keep getting good news on the economy and Labour have an almost unelectable leader. The only notable policies so far announced are some vague promise to cap gas and electric prices ( fiddling in the free market has rarely worked ) and an envy tax ( they like to call it a mansion tax ). Oh, and something airy fairy about improving buses. I know no party has issued a manifesto yet but if these titbits from Labour and the best they can do then they're doomed.

This was the same situation that Cameron was in prior to the last election though. He had few policies and the general consensus on here was that he did not need any until nearer to election time.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Five year terms are too long.

It's not the length it's the idea of a fixed term I do not like.

 

[Brovion]

Apart from the almost unelectable leader part (as I said above, any Lab leader would have similar problems), I think this is nearly spot on. You have to ask the question, what are Labour for? At the moment the answer seems to be: "Same as the Tories, but a bit nicer and not so posh".

Early on in his leadership Miliband was talking about different taxation policies for those who created and invested in jobs and those who lived on their wealth, killing dead the idea that taxing the rich was a tax on enterprise. Now that seemed like a good idea worth pursuing, but we've heard nothing since.

I think you're wrong on the mansion tax BTW, we grossly undertax land and property in this country - that's not some exclusive left wing idea either, Tory commentator Simon Jenkins also calls for higher taxes on large houses, the difference being that he wants it applied to council tax. I agree with him - the mansion tax is another example of Labour's desire to control. It's why I won't vote for them and why, I think, they won't win the election.

100% agree with you.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

This was the same situation that Cameron was in prior to the last election though. He had few policies and the general consensus on here was that he did not need any until nearer to election time.

And I would agree with that if the Tories were in the same financial mess as Labour were then. Unfortunately for Labour the economic news currently is on the up rather than the down when the Tories were in opposition.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

1. Property is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it. There is no real science to valuing a property. Unless a property is actually sold nobody knows its true value. It's why council tax is seen as so unfair..

This is not strictly true though. Market value has to exist for inheritance reasons and also to stop people using the house is £1, fixtures and fitting are £499,999 tax dodge, circumventing capital gains e.g. hello father, here's £1 for your house........and here is £499,999 for your Xmas present etc etc

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

I don't think that's true.

Whilst it's true that there's dissension in the ranks, the whispering campaigns and barely hidden contempt for Miliband just isn't occurring with Cameron. You don't have major regional leaders resigning from the Tory Party as you do with Labour (Scotland) and that hatchet job on Miliband's leadership that turned up in the recent New Statesman - there's nothing like that in the Telegraph or Spectator.

Once Boris is elected as a MP the knives will be sharpened to remove Dodgy Dave from being party leader.

 

[Simster]

the most significant problem you missed is that it isnt going to raise anything like what they expect it too, especially once you account for defered payments. i read they'd only get 20% of the target in the first year, which means a £1.3Bn hole in the spending plans based on it.

This sort of massive underestimation is hardly uncommon in politics though - do we need to Google the Conservative party's promises on deficit reduction compared to what has actually been delivered?

Not that the deficit or indeed this particular broken promise actually bothers me - but I do wonder what the impact of David Cameron acting like UKIP's pathetic puppet is going to have on his core voters and indeed on the country. Say what you like about Milliband, but incredibly he seems more trustworthy than Cameron who is hell bent on making u-turns that don't even pander to his own voters. Let's be honest, his behaviour in Europe has left him unelectable to many wavering Tory voters I should think.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

And I would agree with that if the Tories were in the same financial mess as Labour were then. Unfortunately for Labour the economic news currently is on the up rather than the down when the Tories were in opposition.

The economic news is debatable. I was reading a few days ago that the vast majority of jobs (4/5) are below national average wage and a hefty chunk are minimum wage and/or zero hours contracts. Few seem to actually be benefiting from the 'upturn.'

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I know how he feels. I organised a dinner for tonight and now all 5 people including the Frau have cancelled. I wonder if Ed is busy tonight?

 

[Buzzer]

I know how he feels. I organised a dinner for tonight and now all 5 people including the Frau have cancelled. I wonder if Ed is busy tonight?

Do you really want scenes like this tonight? You'd be best off making it dinner for one, I would have thought.

 

[Buzzer]

Once Boris is elected as a MP the knives will be sharpened to remove Dodgy Dave from being party leader.

Only if CMD loses the election - and he'd probably resign in that case anyway. If they win then he's good for at least the next 2-3 years.