General Election 2015

[zxtwinturbo]

Will he screw the economy for a second time too?

Maybe he can sell some gold?..oh...

 

[Titanic]

Latest ICM Guardian poll - Con 31%, Lab 32%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%, Oth 6%

 

[Titanic]

In the space of under a month, the odds on a hung parliament after the election have moved from Evens to 4/7.

http://politicalbookie.com/2014/11/11/hung-parliament-odds-hit-all-time-low/

 

[Titanic]

Don't think this will help #SaveEd...

UK unemployment fell by 115,000 between July and September to 1.96 million, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
It was the 18th consecutive fall in the total, the ONS said.
Figures also showed that one measure of average earnings growth beat inflation for the first time in five years.
The ONS said earnings excluding bonuses rose by 1.3% in the year to September, ahead of the 1.2% Consumer Prices Index inflation rate.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I really think that next year's General Election is still too hard to call mainly because of:

UKIP - There is currently a large percentage of Tory voters backing them (40% of Tory voters in Rochester will apparently be voting UKIP next week) will they stick to UKIP or go back to voting Tory at a GE?

Sure, UKIP are taking votes from Labour too, but to a far lesser extent.

Milliband. Will he still be Labour leader? If he is, the Tories have a chance, probably of being the largest party in another coalition - I can't see how they will win outright - if he's replaced with, for example, Alan Johnson, then Labour will (IMO) win comfortably.

 

[Gwylan]

Milliband. Will he still be Labour leader? If he is, the Tories have a chance, probably of being the largest party in another coalition - I can't see how they will win outright - if he's replaced with, for example, Alan Johnson, then Labour will (IMO) win comfortably.

I think this is nonsense. Johnson has said quite clearly that he's not interested so even if Miliband resigned (he can't be ousted, he can only resign) his replacement will be Balls, Cooper or possibly Burnham. I really can't see a mass of people out there fervently wishing that Ed Balls was in charge of the Labour party so they could vote for it. I'd say, if anything, Balls and Cooper are even less popular and people don't know who Burnham is.

Incidentally, this is mirrored on the other side. Cameron is even more unpopular among the Tory party than Miliband is among his but CMD is safe for quite a while as there's no plausible candidate to replace him: Osborne's even more unpopular, ditto Gove and May has blotted her copybook too many times. It's a strange time when the two leading parties are led by people who are the least worst option

 

[Brovion]

I think this is nonsense. Johnson has said quite clearly that he's not interested so even if Miliband resigned (he can't be ousted, he can only resign) his replacement will be Balls, Cooper or possibly Burnham. I really can't see a mass of people out there fervently wishing that Ed Balls was in charge of the Labour party so they could vote for it. I'd say, if anything, Balls and Cooper are even less popular and people don't know who Burnham is.

Incidentally, this is mirrored on the other side. Cameron is even more unpopular among the Tory party than Miliband is among his but CMD is safe for quite a while as there's no plausible candidate to replace him: Osborne's even more unpopular, ditto Gove and May has blotted her copybook too many times. It's a strange time when the two leading parties are led by people who are the least worst option

Is his surname 'On-Crouch'?

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I think this is nonsense. Johnson has said quite clearly that he's not interested so even if Miliband resigned (he can't be ousted, he can only resign) his replacement will be Balls, Cooper or possibly Burnham. I really can't see a mass of people out there fervently wishing that Ed Balls was in charge of the Labour party so they could vote for it. I'd say, if anything, Balls and Cooper are even less popular and people don't know who Burnham is.

I agree with your comments re Balls/Cooper and Burnham may be one for 'next time' but if Milliband was to resign, and the Labour Party knocked on his door, would Alan Johnson really say no?

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I really think that next year's General Election is still too hard to call mainly because of:

UKIP - There is currently a large percentage of Tory voters backing them (40% of Tory voters in Rochester will apparently be voting UKIP next week) will they stick to UKIP or go back to voting Tory at a GE?

Sure, UKIP are taking votes from Labour too, but to a far lesser extent.

Milliband. Will he still be Labour leader? If he is, the Tories have a chance, probably of being the largest party in another coalition - I can't see how they will win outright - if he's replaced with, for example, Alan Johnson, then Labour will (IMO) win comfortably.

My question is what exactly will Labour change to make everything better, because for lots of people, honestly this is the best they are going to get. I don't suddenly see everyone getting an extra 3k or 4k a year in their pockets under their leadership, it's just going to be more of the same and more stupid ideas to wind people up.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Don't think this will help #SaveEd...

UK unemployment fell by 115,000 between July and September to 1.96 million, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
It was the 18th consecutive fall in the total, the ONS said.
Figures also showed that one measure of average earnings growth beat inflation for the first time in five years.
The ONS said earnings excluding bonuses rose by 1.3% in the year to September, ahead of the 1.2% Consumer Prices Index inflation rate.

RPI is 2.3% , for low earners and pensioners the inflation rate is way above that.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

My question is what exactly will Labour change to make everything better, because for lots of people, honestly this is the best they are going to get. I don't suddenly see everyone getting an extra 3k or 4k a year in their pockets under their leadership, it's just going to be more of the same and more stupid ideas to wind people up.

The challenge for Labour is to come up with some blinding polices. The Tories keep getting good news on the economy and Labour have an almost unelectable leader. The only notable policies so far announced are some vague promise to cap gas and electric prices ( fiddling in the free market has rarely worked ) and an envy tax ( they like to call it a mansion tax ). Oh, and something airy fairy about improving buses. I know no party has issued a manifesto yet but if these titbits from Labour and the best they can do then they're doomed.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

My question is what exactly will Labour change to make everything better, because for lots of people, honestly this is the best they are going to get. I don't suddenly see everyone getting an extra 3k or 4k a year in their pockets under their leadership, it's just going to be more of the same and more stupid ideas to wind people up.

It all comes down to either being wound up by Labour or Conservatives.

 

[Marshy]

I cant see anything other than another Tory term if I am honest

 

[abc]

IPSOS MORI poll out today. Cons with a 3 point lead.

Only seems to be going one way now

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

IPSOS MORI poll out today. Cons with a 3 point lead.

Only seems to be going one way now

Negativity surrounding Ed Milibland is filtering through in the opinion polls. Labour would still have the most seats in a future parliament on these percentages but need a coalition partner to form a government.

 

[keaton]

Nice try. The BBC spend 86% of its recruitment on advertising jobs in the Guardian, which has a daily readership of circa 180k.

That's a tiny demographic they are appealing to isn't it?

.

Might that have something to do with the fact that the Guardian has a specific Media jobs section? Even Sky News advertises in the Guardian as that's where everyone looking for a media job would look

 

[Titanic]

IpsosMORI / EveningStandard poll: CON 32%(+2), LAB 29%(-4), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(-2), GRN 7%

#SaveEd

 

[User removed 4]

Might that have something to do with the fact that the Guardian has a specific Media jobs section? Even Sky News advertises in the Guardian as that's where everyone looking for a media job would look

Do you think there might be a reason the guardian has a dedicated media jobs section ?

 

[beorhthelm]

Incidentally, this is mirrored on the other side. Cameron is even more unpopular among the Tory party than Miliband is among his but CMD...

that's not what the polling says. true he hasn't comprehensibly wide support (if such a thing exists in the conservative party), but iirc the Tory member polling is in the high 60's or 70's. Miliband cant even get 50% approval rating from his own membership and mid 20's for general public.

I agree with your comments re Balls/Cooper and Burnham may be one for 'next time' but if Milliband was to resign, and the Labour Party knocked on his door, would Alan Johnson really say no?

it been noted as the Labour rules go, we'd have to wait until September to find out even if he resigned. they'd go into the election with Harriet Harman as leader, which would be an improvement, but seem all a bit cack-handed to much of the electorate.

 

[Gwylan]

The challenge for Labour is to come up with some blinding polices. The Tories keep getting good news on the economy and Labour have an almost unelectable leader. The only notable policies so far announced are some vague promise to cap gas and electric prices ( fiddling in the free market has rarely worked ) and an envy tax ( they like to call it a mansion tax ). Oh, and something airy fairy about improving buses. I know no party has issued a manifesto yet but if these titbits from Labour and the best they can do then they're doomed.

Apart from the almost unelectable leader part (as I said above, any Lab leader would have similar problems), I think this is nearly spot on. You have to ask the question, what are Labour for? At the moment the answer seems to be: "Same as the Tories, but a bit nicer and not so posh".

Early on in his leadership Miliband was talking about different taxation policies for those who created and invested in jobs and those who lived on their wealth, killing dead the idea that taxing the rich was a tax on enterprise. Now that seemed like a good idea worth pursuing, but we've heard nothing since.

I think you're wrong on the mansion tax BTW, we grossly undertax land and property in this country - that's not some exclusive left wing idea either, Tory commentator Simon Jenkins also calls for higher taxes on large houses, the difference being that he wants it applied to council tax. I agree with him - the mansion tax is another example of Labour's desire to control. It's why I won't vote for them and why, I think, they won't win the election.