[Albion] Form table

[zefarelly]

Its all becoming very clear to me, we need to be playing the last game of the season 1 point more and 1 goal difference better than Newcastle and Fulham.

and go and tonk Arsenal 3-0

 

[Greg Bobkin]

To be fair, our form hasn’t really wavered all season. No one has stuffed us and we have always been in matches with a chance of winning. With a bit more luck we would be mid table. With a couple of better strikers - who knows? We really could be competing as a top 8 club.
OK, our position in the table is actually poor, but as a football club we have never had it so good, and never had such aspirations as we do now.

With strikers (new or existing) who can actually convert some of the 5,438 chances created every game and without injuries to key players next season could potentially be very exciting!

 

[CaptainDaveUK]

Trouble is, the form guide tends to use the last 6 rather than the last 10.
https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:premier-league/form/matches:6/type:home-and-away

Personally I use both, last 6 and last 10. Admittedly Newcastle and Fulham have done better than us over the last 6 games, but obviously this included the inexplicable week when we lost three games on the bounce that we could have easily got points from. Last 10 matches takes a slightly wider view and is often more revealing as a team can fluke a couple of wins and make it look like they are in better form than they really are. Next game is huge, hopefully Lallana and Welbeck start and we get another result.

 

[Curryisgreat]

Its all becoming very clear to me, we need to be playing the last game of the season 1 point more and 1 goal difference better than Newcastle and Fulham.

I don’t think you’ve thought this through...

So they draw, and we lose by at least two goals.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

Ha, yeh, this season has been off the scale stressful. Only two out of 28 games decided before the last few minutes is crazy.

My legs could barely take my weight by the end of the game yesterday.

Oh for a lovely 3 up by half time sort of game

Ha yeah, when then pen shout went to VAR in injury time, I walked out of the room, I've never welcomed Danny Murphy's voice as much as him stating "that is never a penalty" as the ref was stood with his finger to his ear....Stuart Attwell too, I was close to soiling myself...

 

[Hamilton]

Over 10 games only 1 side has conceded less goals than us. We are definitely in a precarious position. Doesn't necessarily justify the extent of the criticism and not seeing the effort and quality of the performances, acknowledging the key injuries that have impacted our form, and the inexplicable opportunities we've missed.

We've played a lot better in other games than we did against Saints yesterday, dominated more, had much better chances and lost. Those are the breaks. Call it luck, good fortune, whatever else, but we took our chances yesterday. Fingers crossed we continue to do so.

There's no such thing as constant bad luck.

Anyhow, we are a bit of an enigma as a team. Are we good or are we bad? Are we creative or predictable? The stats in the form table are great, but those goals scored, that's the problem that we all know is staring us in the face.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

There's no such thing as constant bad luck.

Anyhow, we are a bit of an enigma as a team. Are we good or are we bad? Are we creative or predictable? The stats in the form table are great, but those goals scored, that's the problem that we all know is staring us in the face.

There’s no enigma imho, we’re a good side that has had a crisis of confidence in front of goal.

Now a big part of the game is confidence and belief, and these things relate to terms like fortune and luck. When you’re full of confidence you completely miss hit a shot off your shin and it bounces into the top corner. Low on confidence and you can’t buy a finish.

Football fans want more definitive reasons for why results don’t happen and managers bare the brunt of this, sometimes justified, often not.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Probably because our goal difference and goals scored is so low making our position feel precarious.

Or the fact that many people on this board don't have a rounded grasp on reality

I will go for mine.

 

[nwgull]

Its all becoming very clear to me, we need to be playing the last game of the season 1 point more and 1 goal difference better than Newcastle and Fulham.

What if they were to draw and we got beaten by 2 or more goals??

 

[Jim in the West]

It must be interesting being a Southampton fan at the moment....almost certainly just a few points from safety, but probably wondering where the hell the next win is coming from! They have won just once in the last 11 (against Sheffield United, so perhaps that doesn't really count). They have been tonked by both Man Utd and Man City, and even let in three against Newcastle. Reminds me a bit of our cataclysmic second half of the season in 18/19...just checking, we got TEN points from our last 17 games - with just two victories (one of which was a very narrow 1-0 vs Huddersfield who were that season's Sheff Utd [The other at Selhurst, of course]).

I guess Southampton will be thinking they probably only need 5 more points - but at the same time scratching their heads about how they will get them. In reality they will almost certainly pick up the required points from somewhere - even if it's 5 or 6 flukey draws.

 

[CaptainDaveUK]

There's no such thing as constant bad luck.

Anyhow, we are a bit of an enigma as a team. Are we good or are we bad? Are we creative or predictable? The stats in the form table are great, but those goals scored, that's the problem that we all know is staring us in the face.

Another bit of good news from yesterday was our Xg was .97 but we scored twice!

 

[Bry Nylon]

Another bit of good news from yesterday was our Xg was .97 but we scored twice!

So the chance Gross had (and the keeper blocked) and the chance Trossard had (and scored), when taken together, equal less than one 'expected goal' based on databases showing the outcome of near identical chances from loads of pervious games? (I haven't included Dunk's goal as I imagine that has a very low xG value).

Have I got that right?

 

[Gazwag]

I don’t think you’ve thought this through...

So they draw, and we lose by at least two goals.

What if they were to draw and we got beaten by 2 or more goals??

True, don't know why I put the 1 goal bit, I meant to put if we keep the GD at a level we don't lose by more than that

 

[Perkino]

And just reflect on those three defeats for a second

Wow! I hadn't put it into such a context. Those 3 games we were decent in large patches and without silly errors our season would've looked very different

 

[nwgull]

So the chance Gross had (and the keeper blocked) and the chance Trossard had (and scored), when taken together, equal less than one 'expected goal' based on databases showing the outcome of near identical chances from loads of pervious games? (I haven't included Dunk's goal as I imagine that has a very low xG value).

Have I got that right?

Correct. It's surprising that more chances like that are missed than converted, but it's done on historical data apparently. Pens for example have an xG of 0.76. You'd think it'd be higher, but apparently 24% of pens aren't scored. Although maybe not that surprising when you consider that scoring 4 out of 5 in your average penalty shootout would usually be enough to win.

 

[Hamilton]

Another bit of good news from yesterday was our Xg was .97 but we scored twice!

Another enigma.

 

[Hamilton]

There’s no enigma imho, we’re a good side that has had a crisis of confidence in front of goal.

Now a big part of the game is confidence and belief, and these things relate to terms like fortune and luck. When you’re full of confidence you completely miss hit a shot off your shin and it bounces into the top corner. Low on confidence and you can’t buy a finish.

Football fans want more definitive reasons for why results don’t happen and managers bare the brunt of this, sometimes justified, often not.

That's true. Confidence will fuel ability. I don't think it means a flukey shot off the shin will go in but a player is more likely to take that shot at the first attempt rather than take an unnecessary extra touch.

 

[Bry Nylon]

Correct. It's surprising that more chances like that are missed than converted, but it's done on historical data apparently. Pens for example have an xG of 0.76. You'd think it'd be higher, but apparently 24% of pens aren't scored. Although maybe not that surprising when you consider that scoring 4 out of 5 in your average penalty shootout would usually be enough to win.

Thanks. Yes - I'm with you when you say that it is surprising that chances like that are more often missed than converted.

Without the benefit of a database showing the actual outcome of identical scoring opportunities, my first reaction would be that historically the Gross type-chance would be stuck away 75% of the time and Trossard's chance would be a 90% net-bulger. This is why I don't run Star Lizard.

 

[blue-shifted]

Another bit of good news from yesterday was our Xg was .97 but we scored twice!

Could have sworn it didn't say that on MOTD2. They had it as 1.65 or something

 

[Tony Le Mesmer]

Has it been confirmed that the EPL are moving the midweek fixtures from w/c May 10th to w/c May 17th to allow % home supporters to watch the games - so each team is home once?