Europe!

[jessiejames]

I just wished that i had gone straight to your post first instead of reading the whole 6 pages worth of the thread

 

[The Rivet]

Lol, everybody has their opinion! It may be strange and slightly weird but, being british we have to adhere to the principal everyone has an opinion be it right or wrong! I feel that the stance thrown down by DC is a direct argument, are you fit to save the Euro single currency! I am a poker player and I think DC has, for once, got it right!

 

[Sussex Nomad]

The only thing I ever care about is earning enough money, don't care how it happens so long as it's legal, I care little about Governments and never vote... I have no say many will tell me, but if you pay taxes and don't vote you have every say because you are paying your UK rent. They can do what they like so long as it doesn't interfere with my lifestyle.

 

[Chicken Runner61]

The eurozone is not f***ed because of Lehmans, its f***ed because Govt's mis-managed their economies and borrowed more than they could afford. What are the "strong measures" that the Germans and French would want to take for those Govt's?

Nothing has changed, the euro is still f***ed. The Germans will still either have to pay up in full or pay up less with other money coming from elsewhere. The FTT is great for the Germans and French as 80% of it would be raised in the UK. Whatever you think of the Torys or Cameron the decision last night was right.........and Clegg knows it too.

So enjoy your night it the pub......chinchin.

CF you are right about the FFT and everything else but Cameron didn't make the decision because it was right he made it because he would face annihilation from his own party backbenchers if he hadn't made that decision. No one knows how this crisis will pan out but in or out of Europe, bailing out or letting sink the Uk will get stuffed somehow.

Our economy is wrecked if we try and support the EU
Our banks will be wiped out if Italy or Spain goes
The only thing that might have saved us is growth and that is f***ed.

We might not be on the Titanic but all our possessions are.

 

[beorhthelm]

There seems a paranoia about his Financial Transaction Tax being put in place and its aims to cripple Britain. The city of London and its institutions was instrumental in the state we and Europe are in now. Of course new legislation needs to be implemented and I wish we were there helping to write it.

first off, they are not responsible. the bank crisis in 2007/2008 was their own fault, and true that has been a catalyst for the current problem. but to blame the banks for the current Eurozone crisis is like blaming a bank when a company goes bust due to being over extended on their overdraft and caught fiddling the sales figures. (if Greece was a company they'd have sent the receivers and serious fraud office in last year.)

secondly, while its a tad paraniod to say the aim is to cripple the UK (which i dont think anyone is saying is the purpose), the aims are to make a powergrab and huge tax grab. the effect of it will be to cripple the UK. the EU commission reckons (from memory) it will raise about €60billion, about €45billion from the UK. but then in the same report it acknowledges some 80-90 % of the derivatives, bond and share trading will probably leave to the far east and the US - with less regulation than there is now and none EU controled. so thats down to €12billion revenue then, which will be generated by the domestic trade left that cant leave, your and my pension, mortgage, company loans etc. so the consumer would pay that. and we havent counted for the lost income tax and corporation tax, or the loss of support and auxillary jobs arounds where once all those bankers, trader and hedgies worked.

and what does this regulation do other than make hundreds of thousands of jobs leave London and the rest of Europe? f*** all, because all those banks and hedge fund can carry on exactly the same trading in the new locations. Greek debt would still be worthless, Italy would still be paying 7% and French banks would still be carrying unseen losses of 10s of billions on those loans if they default.

the concept in its original form, on a global implementation is noble. proponents of the Robin Hood tax advocate using the procedes to pay off third world debt, educate those in poverty, eradicate disease. what does the EU want to do with it? put it in to the ECB so they can lend it back out to those countries that cant/wont run a proper budget! ffs, its robbing the rich to pay the lazy rich.

its the worst idea since someone thought waste vegtable oil be blended into diesel by law to reduce net CO2 emmissions, when they realised too late that this meant land used for food in developing countries was suddenly being used for fuel to export to developed countries. people with noble aims again missed the wider picture untill it was too late. the Financial Transacion tax is going to have a similar screwed up outcome, only we can foresee the outcome this time.

legislation and regulation is needed, but this isnt it.

 

[Bulldog]

26 against 1, is that all? they don't have a chance!

 

[cunning fergus]

CF you are right about the FFT and everything else but Cameron didn't make the decision because it was right he made it because he would face annihilation from his own party backbenchers if he hadn't made that decision. No one knows how this crisis will pan out but in or out of Europe, bailing out or letting sink the Uk will get stuffed somehow.

Our economy is wrecked if we try and support the EU
Our banks will be wiped out if Italy or Spain goes
The only thing that might have saved us is growth and that is f***ed.

We might not be on the Titanic but all our possessions are.

CR I disagree. If there is one thing Clegg and Cameron agree on in terms of European politics then it is that they will do all they can to prevent the UK having a referendum on Europe. If Cameron is that weak against the eurosceptics bankbenchers then he would have allowed a referendum a couple of weeks ago. He was absolutely clear about it then, he doesn't want one. We know why..............he is no eurosceptic.

Had Cameron agreed to the plans as they were put in front of him Thursday then this would have included the transfer of budgetary powers to Brussels and that could not have been fudged as being business as usual. A referendum in the UK would have automatically followed and Clegg and his mob would have had to support it, with the Tories split. The electorate would have said out and the coalition would have been wiped out.

The other EU leaders would have known that these were the stakes in the UK, and even though this looks like a Eurosceptic victory, the reality is that with no referendum we are still in the EU/outside the Euro and nothing has changed, we are still IN the single market.

The problem is for Europe is that its leaders have to please their own electorates and this is a major factor as to why the Euro doesnt work now and will fail in future. France and Germany have their own elections soon and neither Merkel or Serkozy want to be seen to be transferring their own sovereign power or money hence there was no agreement on the ECB or Eurobonds yesterday which meant PIG debt is on the rise and why S&P will downgrade some EU countries.

This episode has made them look strong to their own electorates though and dishing it out to Cameron will be popular in France in particular. They also have their scapegoat when it fails.

Miliband is seeking to make political capital here, its not constructive though just the same old shit.......plenty on here sucking it up as usual.

He knows one thing though, like we all do...........whether the EU suceeds or fails we are f***ed. If we can keep an income generator like the city going (and forget the banks its bigger than that).....then we wont be as f***ed as we would without it.

 

[severnside gull]

contradictions aside (there are always contradictions) I think Beorthelm and Cunning Fergus have got it about right

 

[Biscuit]

Oh you mean the Brown who sold half our gold reserves when they were at their lowest value and cost the UK billions and the same Brown who raided the pension pot! Oh! that Brown....

Yep that's the one. The guy that went to Uni aged 14.. what a thicko. As long as his CV is I'm afraid to say you're right, being able to see into the future wasn't on his skillset.

 

[Billy the Fish]

the concept in its original form, on a global implementation is noble. proponents of the Robin Hood tax advocate using the procedes to pay off third world debt, educate those in poverty, eradicate disease. .

This is the thing about the FTT. It is actually a great idea, but only if the entire world abides by it. The way things work at the moment is madness, the billions upon billions being made and hoarded by the banks and corporations could quite easily be put to good use for the 6 billion inhabitants of this planet.

It won't happen any time soon though because we're in a turkeys voting for christmas situation when it comes to global wealth distribution, it'll take some kind of global disaster or nuclear war before it changes. As it is we've got to do the best we can for ourselves within the current framework.

 

[Chicken Runner61]

CR I disagree. If there is one thing Clegg and Cameron agree on in terms of European politics then it is that they will do all they can to prevent the UK having a referendum on Europe. If Cameron is that weak against the eurosceptics bankbenchers then he would have allowed a referendum a couple of weeks ago. He was absolutely clear about it then, he doesn't want one. We know why..............he is no eurosceptic.

Had Cameron agreed to the plans as they were put in front of him Thursday then this would have included the transfer of budgetary powers to Brussels and that could not have been fudged as being business as usual. A referendum in the UK would have automatically followed and Clegg and his mob would have had to support it, with the Tories split. The electorate would have said out and the coalition would have been wiped out.

The other EU leaders would have known that these were the stakes in the UK, and even though this looks like a Eurosceptic victory, the reality is that with no referendum we are still in the EU/outside the Euro and nothing has changed, we are still IN the single market.

The problem is for Europe is that its leaders have to please their own electorates and this is a major factor as to why the Euro doesnt work now and will fail in future. France and Germany have their own elections soon and neither Merkel or Serkozy want to be seen to be transferring their own sovereign power or money hence there was no agreement on the ECB or Eurobonds yesterday which meant PIG debt is on the rise and why S&P will downgrade some EU countries.

This episode has made them look strong to their own electorates though and dishing it out to Cameron will be popular in France in particular. They also have their scapegoat when it fails.

Miliband is seeking to make political capital here, its not constructive though just the same old shit.......plenty on here sucking it up as usual.

He knows one thing though, like we all do...........whether the EU suceeds or fails we are f***ed. If we can keep an income generator like the city going (and forget the banks its bigger than that).....then we wont be as f***ed as we would without it.

Again I don't disagree with much of that (if any) but the bit about Cameron that gripes me is that he is basing his decision on what to do from a political position - It isn't a political crisis yet, its a financial one, and its a national, European and Global one at that and that is what any decision should be centred around not the internal politics of the Tories.

Of course Milliband is trying to make political capital - thats his job constructive or not he's not the one making the decision about our country's economic future.

These are the facts about the UK Economy

Manufacturing is now only 10% of the Uk economy Just after WW2 it was 40%
The services industry is about 75%
For 10 years up to 2003 our energy consumption was fairly stable now we are a net importer
6.8 million people worked in Manufacturing when Thatcher came to office in 1979 - now its 2.5 million
Last year we bought £97 billion more in goods from other countries than we sold for export.
In 1983 there were 170 working coalmines in 2009 there were 4

The finance industry is f***ed - we no longer have manufacturing to support it.


Sarcozy wants France to become a finance centre, its a good call for him to have a go at the Uk and will be good for the french elections on the horizon. Cameron may just have given him a helping hand in shifting the finance sectors to France if the other 26 fall in line with France and Germany

 

[Dorset Seagull]

Apologies if covered already as haven't read all threads. I assumed that us having a veto meant we could stop something happening that were weren't happy with. If all the other countries are going ahead without us then we haven't actually prevented this going ahead by using our veto all we have done is decided not to be part of it. So what is the actual point of a veto and what does it actually do??

 

[beorhthelm]

Again I don't disagree with much of that (if any) but the bit about Cameron that gripes me is that he is basing his decision on what to do from a political position - It isn't a political crisis yet, its a financial one, and its a national, European and Global one at that and that is what any decision should be centred around not the internal politics of the Tories.

you cant deny that the various maneuvers by Sarkozy and Merkel have been political. what has setting european wide (not just eurozone) taxation such as corporation tax got to do with resolving the debt problems of Greece and the other med states? very little.

in fact the whole reason we are here is political, because Merkel cant gain support for bailout of Euro nations for nothing, because Sarkozy cant be seen to cede lots of power to the Germans. over a year this has been bubbling away with the european politicians unable or unwilling to execute any plan. then when they did come up with one (which one? theres been about 3) its apparent within a week it wont work. the mechanisms need with in the Euro to avoid this problem, shared fiscal policy, bank of last resort, are not present because it was politically unpalatable for the states involved.

this has always been a political crisis at its core.

 

[Chicken Runner61]

you cant deny that the various maneuvers by Sarkozy and Merkel have been political. what has setting european wide (not just eurozone) taxation such as corporation tax got to do with resolving the debt problems of Greece and the other med states? very little.

in fact the whole reason we are here is political, because Merkel cant gain support for bailout of Euro nations for nothing, because Sarkozy cant be seen to cede lots of power to the Germans. over a year this has been bubbling away with the european politicians unable or unwilling to execute any plan. then when they did come up with one (which one? theres been about 3) its apparent within a week it wont work. the mechanisms need with in the Euro to avoid this problem, shared fiscal policy, bank of last resort, are not present because it was politically unpalatable for the states involved.

this has always been a political crisis at its core.

Its a financial crisis that needs to be solved using a financial solution - Of course every country's leader (Sarcozy, Merkel etc) is trying to get the best deal for themselves as well as looking over their shoulder making sure their party agrees whilst watching their own political career ready for forthcoming elections. Half the reason the EC has failed to do anything is because they have held back hoping somehow the finances will look better. Its not just the Uk that vetoed I understand Sweden did as well but they seemed to stay friends with the others without having to suck up to the bankers that caused this crisis.

 

[beorhthelm]

Its a financial crisis that needs to be solved using a financial solution

so why havent they sought a financial solution. boot Greece and let them pick up the tab for their own profligate finances would have been a financial solution a long time ago. but they wouldnt allow that for the political implications for the future of the Euro, so (half heartedly) proped them up. now the problems spread to just about every country in europe - even the Germans had trouble raising funds a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Gangsta]

The eurozone is not f***ed because of Lehmans, its f***ed because Govt's mis-managed their economies and borrowed more than they could afford. What are the "strong measures" that the Germans and French would want to take for those Govt's?

Nothing has changed, the euro is still f***ed. The Germans will still either have to pay up in full or pay up less with other money coming from elsewhere. The FTT is great for the Germans and French as 80% of it would be raised in the UK. Whatever you think of the Torys or Cameron the decision last night was right.........and Clegg knows it too.

So enjoy your night it the pub......chinchin.

All of the above. I dont understand the likes of Nick Robinson and the BBC presenting this as some sort of disaster. He actually presented the events as a masterstroke for Sarkosy. It is anything but. The real action is yet to happen when the details come out of what has to be done to get the government deficits under control while still trying to protect the German, French and Spanish banks who laughably pretended they were not exposed to the kind of risks the US and British banks came clean about back in 2008/09. I had been told at the time that they were hiding all the real shit under the carpet. They also have to explain where the money is coming from to prop up the Euro. How long till the French left get stuck in. France is wedded to the kind of blinkered socialism that we had to get rid of in the 80's. A majority of their working population are either employed directly by the state or through employers who benefit from massive EU handouts ( i.e. most of their rural population ). They potentially have the most to lose. This will be made clear well before the next elections. As Del Boy would say, Bonjour Sarkosy! ( and Allo Allo Vichey France II )

 

[Seagull over Canaryland]

Milliband is a joke. He needs cornering by Paxman and given a good kicking over his lack of support and cheap political opportunism. Is he serious about committing us to a treaty that passes much of our financial controls to the Germans? Haven't heard much from Gordon Brown of late..............what happened to the best Chancellor ever? Don't hear him coming out with any statesmanly advice for the benefit of the nation in its hour of need. Oh......and maybe now Blair's chances of European Presidency and even more of a life on the gravy train have evaporated.

On the other hand I do agree that we are now in a hole whichever way Cameron had voted. However I still think (hope) the French will end up with oeufs on their faces. I can't stand that s**t Sarkozy. I would not in any way buy any French goods, take holidays en Francais and certainly not buy a French car. Shame that Cameron did deck the little s**t. (Thatcher would have given him a good handbagging). At least we are not in the pockets of the Germans - for now at least.

The thing that pleases me is that we haven't meekly surrendered and followed the other EC sheep to the slaughter but showed a bit of British beef. Not sure it will do us good in the short term. Time for NSCers to stand up for British goods, support our economy and start creating some growth, no better time to start than the Xmas spending spree. Think twice before buying anything from across the channel.

 

[Chicken Runner61]

so why havent they sought a financial solution. boot Greece and let them pick up the tab for their own profligate finances would have been a financial solution a long time ago. but they wouldnt allow that for the political implications for the future of the Euro, so (half heartedly) proped them up. now the problems spread to just about every country in europe - even the Germans had trouble raising funds a couple of weeks ago.

Because they don't know what to do now.

The flaw (as I'm sure YOU know but for the benefit of others) is that when a country gets in trouble their currency is devalued and interest rates rise forcing that nation to work harder export more goods till the deficit is reduced - that plus a bit of austerity and a dollop of QE normally would solve the problem but...... as all these nations use one currency the Euro they can't/won't devalue it because it would also effect Germany and France. This leaves them with the sole solution of bonds/gilts which they have tried to use causing a greater bigger mess as now those countries can't afford the interest rates and will default.

Add in the fact that this came on the back (or was caused) by a banking crisis where too much credit was already available which had already resulted in banks who were already half broke rushing to buy debt in the hope they would profit/recover massively when Europe recovered.

It was by sheer luck that the UK did not swap ££'s for the Euro and that decision was based on satisfying English pride and independence rather than economic theory. I heard very few voices at the time that were worrying about Global financial meltdown and even the americas were/are considering an amero so the idea of joint currency still has many supporters. What makes me laugh is the people that now jump on the "well we kept our £ so its nothing to do with us" bandwagon don't seem to understand that OUR banks also rushed in to buy PIIGS debts/gilts and I don't recall hearing Osbourne or Cameron telling them not to! Its those debts that are going to haunt our economy if Europe crashes - Why did they buy them if we were nothing to do with the Europe let alone European politics?

And people here should really be worried about our debt which Morgan Stanley reckon to be 1000% of GDP if you take in all debt not just Sovereign which is due mainly because of the size of our financial sector. Our economy is "one of the worst you can imagine its got no resources, its too service based and we keep missing our deficit targets" Its only the fact we can still print our own money thats saving us and why we can borrow at better rates than Germany. The people loaning us money on our gilts know we can print our payments back to them eventually unlike countries like Germany with a finite number of Euros in their treasury. The US can borrow cheaply because its the worlds reserve currency and Japan because it has a trade surplus Its only the QE that keeps our Gilt yields low.

I understand the size of our banking system is 4 times the size of our GDP if we get bank failures our treasury won't stand a chance.

Thats the danger of Cameron taking a tory or banking line on the decision, it means we won't be included in any european financial solution when they finally have to do one!

 

[beorhthelm]

All of the above. I dont understand the likes of Nick Robinson and the BBC presenting this as some sort of disaster. He actually presented the events as a masterstroke for Sarkosy. It is anything but.

disagree. you're right that the implications are to set in, but he has brought himself time and when it goes wrong a scapegoat - if the UK hadn't vetoed we'd have fixed it. its also served as a great distract from the fact it will be very diffcult to get an agreement. the funny thing is if Cameron had said yes, he would have been pilloried here but 3-6 month down the line we'd probably find it irrelevent as half the EU states would have lost referendums or parlimentry votes on the changes. as it is thats still an chance, but with a new treaty arrangement they might try to convince their publics isnt a full blown treaty.

 

[Chicken Runner61]

All of the above. I dont understand the likes of Nick Robinson and the BBC presenting this as some sort of disaster. He actually presented the events as a masterstroke for Sarkosy. It is anything but. The real action is yet to happen when the details come out of what has to be done to get the government deficits under control while still trying to protect the German, French and Spanish banks who laughably pretended they were not exposed to the kind of risks the US and British banks came clean about back in 2008/09. I had been told at the time that they were hiding all the real shit under the carpet. They also have to explain where the money is coming from to prop up the Euro. How long till the French left get stuck in. France is wedded to the kind of blinkered socialism that we had to get rid of in the 80's. A majority of their working population are either employed directly by the state or through employers who benefit from massive EU handouts ( i.e. most of their rural population ). They potentially have the most to lose. This will be made clear well before the next elections. As Del Boy would say, Bonjour Sarkosy! ( and Allo Allo Vichey France II )

As I said above our banks are heavily involved in Greece, Spain, Italy and France - Our Government HAS to back them if they crash or the UK nation will lose all their savings and pensions completely - the FSA protection will be swamped.

It was easy for foreign money to flow into the UK - lots of companies came here - Its very easy for them to go to Paris too which is what Sarcozy wants.

Those two reason are why the reporters and analysts are worried