[Other Sport] Cycling geeks

[Stat Brother]

Movistar definitely don't look as strong as I thought they would, but Quintana is just one stage and one big acceleration away from putting 5 minutes into everybody.
When that time comes Evans will be the biggest casualty as everyone kicks on for the podium in the final km.

I guess if The Stelvio etc aren't passable a la last year, that could put doubts on NQ.

 

[1066familyman]

Movistar definitely don't look as strong as I thought they would, but Quintana is just one stage and one big acceleration away from putting 5 minutes into everybody.
When that time comes Evans will be the biggest casualty as everyone kicks on for the podium in the final km.

I guess if The Stelvio etc aren't passable a la last year, that could put doubts on NQ.

...

 

[Pantani]

Just watched the whole thing again on demand on Eurosport.

That really was superb entertainment, I enjoyed it a great deal.

Really courageous stuff from Arredondo, such a shame he could not hang on. He really blew up at the end, finishing over three minutes down. I was glad Rolland got caught, for some reason I really do not like him.

Movistar were absolutely ridiculous blowing all the men out by the foot of the first climb with over 50km to go. Why do they keep doing this? Their DS needs to take a long hard look at himself and his tactics.

AG2R superb performance by the entire team apart from Pozzo, as you say 1066, he really has to attack after all that work. If I'm Vuillermoz I'm gonna be really angry after absolutely burying myself for that long.

Excellent from Ulissi, again, he had been dropped as far as I can tell but got back in that group of favourites for the end. Also young Wilco is starting to look the real deal to me, he is my new favourite I think(as in rider I like rather than favourite for the Giro).

Finally, the old men. Evan's looked pretty strong, but I expect him to until the final week, the TT next week is huge for him, if he can put some more time in to Quintana he may just have a chance. Basso on the other hand surprised me, he will still struggle to make the top 10 overall but he stayed much further up than I expected. Scarponi is done for, the perils of being tipped by both 1066 and I!

 

[Pantani]

Well done Spanish fellow (Teruel), still got another lap

 

[1066familyman]

Just watched the whole thing again on demand on Eurosport.

That really was superb entertainment, I enjoyed it a great deal.

Really courageous stuff from Arredondo, such a shame he could not hang on. He really blew up at the end, finishing over three minutes down. I was glad Rolland got caught, for some reason I really do not like him.

Movistar were absolutely ridiculous blowing all the men out by the foot of the first climb with over 50km to go. Why do they keep doing this? Their DS needs to take a long hard look at himself and his tactics.

AG2R superb performance by the entire team apart from Pozzo, as you say 1066, he really has to attack after all that work. If I'm Vuillermoz I'm gonna be really angry after absolutely burying myself for that long.

Excellent from Ulissi, again, he had been dropped as far as I can tell but got back in that group of favourites for the end. Also young Wilco is starting to look the real deal to me, he is my new favourite I think(as in rider I like rather than favourite for the Giro).

Finally, the old men. Evan's looked pretty strong, but I expect him to until the final week, the TT next week is huge for him, if he can put some more time in to Quintana he may just have a chance. Basso on the other hand surprised me, he will still struggle to make the top 10 overall but he stayed much further up than I expected. Scarponi is done for, the perils of being tipped by both 1066 and I!

Yep, it's a stage that had to be watched from a long way out to fully appreciate. The results alone tell nothing of what really went on, and in some ways I was disappointed by the result, although I really enjoyed the stage.

A few questions raised today, especially about team strengths and tatics. I think we've covered them now between us and are all in agreement.

To be fair I did say it remains to be seen how well Scarponi recovers from the crash as I'd heard him and Majka went down particularly hard. Well, today answered that question pretty conclusively. If you want to see (yet another) tip failure then I think I may have gotten ahead of myself in Pozzo & Majka, but we'll see. Also, having now looked a bit further ahead, looks like stage 11 might be a better bet for my breakaway tips too. Oh well, I live in hope.

 

[Pantani]

Yep, it's a stage that had to be watched from a long way out to fully appreciate. The results alone tell nothing of what really went on, and in some ways I was disappointed by the result, although I really enjoyed the stage.

A few questions raised today, especially about team strengths and tatics. I think we've covered them now between us and are all in agreement.

To be fair I did say it remains to be seen how well Scarponi recovers from the crash as I'd heard him and Majka went down particularly hard. Well, today answered that question pretty conclusively. If you want to see (yet another) tip failure then I think I may have gotten ahead of myself in Pozzo & Majka, but we'll see. Also, having now looked a bit further ahead, looks like stage 11 might be a better bet for my breakaway tips too. Oh well, I live in hope.

I agree that stage 11 looks like a strong bet for a breakaway. Though I think the break has a really good chance today, I just cannot see BMC wanting to keep Cadel in Pink from this far out.

Though having looked at the GC in more detail they will do well to find anyone close enough to steal it in one stage, who isn't a threat. For a week old grand tour the gaps are huge already. Basso in 11th is more than two minutes down, 14th three minutes down, 17th four minutes down and 20th five minutes down.

 

[Stat Brother]

Although the gaps are big, im not convinced there's a team that can control them.
There's still four or five riders with no other GC teammates about and im not sure BMC OPQS and Movistar combined can control all of them.
If it were Sky or Discovery controlling the field nobody is slipping away.

 

[Stat Brother]

Now I know what you're on about [MENTION=12656]Pantani[/MENTION]

 

[1066familyman]

I agree that stage 11 looks like a strong bet for a breakaway. Though I think the break has a really good chance today, I just cannot see BMC wanting to keep Cadel in Pink from this far out.

Though having looked at the GC in more detail they will do well to find anyone close enough to steal it in one stage, who isn't a threat. For a week old grand tour the gaps are huge already. Basso in 11th is more than two minutes down, 14th three minutes down, 17th four minutes down and 20th five minutes down.

Although the gaps are big, im not convinced there's a team that can control them.
There's still four or five riders with no other GC teammates about and im not sure BMC OPQS and Movistar combined can control all of them.
If it were Sky or Discovery controlling the field nobody is slipping away.

The trouble Evans had in taking Pink was that he really had no choice. He had to take as much time as possible up to and including this first ITT. As said, unfortunately for him gaps are unusually big, largely thanks to weather on TTT and the crash fest on Thursday(mind you, he was the big winner from Thursday of course). I said that AG2R done all of BMC's work yesterday, but another way of looking at it is that if Cadel wasn't confident of grabbing bonus seconds on the line yesterday, which he didn't, then he'd be happy to see the break stick anyway. Same thing today really.

What BMC could really do with is let Ulissi in with a shout of taking Pink. Let Lampre do the work, not only because of fancying another stage win, but to have the added bonus of wearing pink. I don't think they'd be bothered about when they got pink, just delighted to have it, as I really don't see a GC rider they have who is capable of winning the thing anyway. Neimiec would have been their best bet for highest finish, but he's now out of it, and I doubt Ulissi will stay in the Top 5, even with this weak field as he'll fall away badly in week three and his TT's are poor as well.

In betting breakaway news. I noticed that not long after I got 100/1 on Rubiano for today, WH slashed his odds to 66/1. Strange. Perhaps they got the odds wrong in the first place by mixing up all those Colombian middle names etc., or else he's had a flurry of bets put on him?

Edit: Re reading that, I really don't know why I bothered with para 2. Ulissi will only take the stage win from a finish line sprint, and no one would cut him well over a minute slack anyway. I'm letting my imagination run away with me again I think.

 

[Pantani]

In betting breakaway news. I noticed that not long after I got 100/1 on Rubiano for today, WH slashed his odds to 66/1. Strange. Perhaps they got the odds wrong in the first place by mixing up all those Colombian middle names etc., or else he's had a flurry of bets put on him?

Nah, these markets are as small as our next manager one. You plus one or two others will lead to shortened odds I would think. They do seem to play very safe with the odds for bike racing.

 

[1066familyman]

Nah, these markets are as small as our next manager one. You plus one or two others will lead to shortened odds I would think. They do seem to play very safe with the odds for bike racing.

I suppose they read forums too I've mentioned him on here and one other place. Must be a VERY small market.

Paul Clement FTW today then............. from a breakaway, naturally.

 

[Stat Brother]

What BMC could really do with is let Ulissi in with a shout of taking Pink. Let Lampre do the work, not only because of fancying another stage win, but to have the added bonus of wearing pink.

Clearly I know exactly what you mean, but that statement is amusing.


Oh and Cadel isn't giving anything up, we all know every second counts, as far as he's concerned.

 

[1066familyman]

Clearly I know exactly what you mean, but that statement is amusing.

I hadn't thought of that. The flight of fancy was so fanciful I hadn't even considered the small details of team colours.

 

[1066familyman]

Well I got Weening in the break at least

Perhaps Rubiano was caught on the wrong side of the crash split peloton that instigated the break, because I can't see it was Colombias intention to have a sprinter in a team of climbers be their man

Julien Berard (AG2R La Mondiale), Enrico Barbin (Bardiani CSF), Marco Bandiera (Androni Giocatolli), Jackson Rodriguez (Androni Giocatolli), David Tanner (Belkin), Oscar Gatto (Cannondale), Leonardo Duque (Colombia), Matteo Bono (Lampre-Merida), Jonathan Monsalve (Neri Sottoli), Tosh Van der Sande (Lotto-Belisol), Salvatore Puccio (Team Sky), Eduard Vorganov (Katusha), Pieter Weening (Orica-GreenEdge) and Davide Malacarne (Europcar).

 

[1066familyman]

Yeah, thanks BMC Chase down that break for no apparent reason why don't ya. You'll only gift the stage to Ulissi again.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Boom! OGE having a blinder of a Giro!

 

[Pantani]

Yeah, thanks BMC Chase down that break for no apparent reason why don't ya. You'll only gift the stage to Ulissi again.

Well done mate, 40-1?

on you?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Well I got Weening in the break at least

Great bet! That's the kind of bet you deserve every cent you get back.

 

[1066familyman]

Well done mate, 40-1?

on you?

Great bet! That's the kind of bet you deserve every cent you get back.

It's Weening time!



Thanks, only seem to pull off the 40/1's these days The Stan avatar is staying though because I love it too much.

Big bonus that may come in handy later with some great AG2R tatics too. Making up for yesterdays mystery work and put in a perfectly executed alternative plan instead for Pozzo today. Great days viewing all round I think.

 

[Motogull]

None of us had a team for the WWC today.