Chance of Snow next week

[Notters]

If my exams get postponed im NOT going to be a happy bunny.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So my missus can look forward to a few inches, then. :yahoo:

Seriously though, I'm also into meteorology, and the BBC's online 5 day synoptic chart (weather map to non-meteorologists) also shows high presure building over Scandinavia from Friday owards, with a strong easterly wind setting in.

It's often these easterlies from Russia which give us our coldest winter weather and heaviest snow.

Bring it on!

Down here, it's this sort of setup, with low pressure trying to make in-roads from the south that delivers all of our memorable snow events.

The classic winters of the 80s were either all, or party like this.

Papa

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Ok.




Just out of interest US, where do you get your medium range forecast information from?

Years of meticulous syudying of the weather. I predict it will be largely dry next week and sunny with day time highs of 6C and night time lows of 1C. I think the rain will stop but will revert to a typical early February high pressure but there is nothing to suggest cold or snow.

 

[Man of Harveys]

I like your predictions more than Gareths.

Yours come with graphics and sense.

OK but some of us are also BIG long-standing fans of his truly fantastical "I see they're predicting snow chaos again well don't make me laugh"-themed insania. I wouldn't want to deter them.

 

[Man of Harveys]

And I LOVE the way that our Gav often writes another comment before anyone's replied to the previous one.

It will be tropical mark my words, "snow chaos" indeed

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

All the NSC log splitters get out there ASAP and lay up a store.

My broken finger is on the mend, so I reckon I'll be out there tomorrow keeping the pile topped up.

According to our BRMC meter (Burn Rate as a Measure of Coldness AKA how quickly the pile is going down) it's been a cold Winter so far - we're getting through the logs.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Years of meticulous syudying of the weather. I predict it will be largely dry next week and sunny with day time highs of 6C and night time lows of 1C. I think the rain will stop but will revert to a typical early February high pressure but there is nothing to suggest cold or snow.

So, you don't have, say - a BSC in Geographical Science, which include study of Meteorology and Climatology? Shame really.

Sorry, couldn't resist...

There is, of course a good chance that the outlook will change, but based upon the current output - I'd say we will see some snow down here. The one thing these models forecast very badly at any range over a couple of days is precipitation; so you could be right.

We will have to wait and see... either way, I'm basing my forecast on the model output, so if I'm wrong it's not my fault

Papa

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The updated Met Office forecast is encouraging:

UK Outlook for Monday 2 Feb 2009 to Wednesday 11 Feb 2009:
There is now reasonable confidence for a colder easterly regime to have become established by the start of this forecast period. It will probably be mostly dry at first with overnight frost and some patches of fog in western parts, perhaps also some snow flurries in eastern areas. As we go through the first week though, there looks to be an increasing risk of some wintry precipitation at times, this most likely near the east coast. Longer term, through the week-end and into the following week, indications are that the cold or rather cold weather may persist along with the risk of some snow at times. Confidence in the amount and distribution of any snow is low however at this stage.

Updated: 1143 on Wed 28 Jan 2009

 

[Bevendean Hillbilly]

OK but some of us are also BIG long-standing fans of his truly fantastical "I see they're predicting snow chaos again well don't make me laugh"-themed insania. I wouldn't want to deter them.

I see your point. A world without the most universally shit weather forecasts/racing tips/football punditry anyone has ever produced would be a far poorer place.

Keep it up US!- NO SNOW, the Mortgage market will recover by next week and Soggy Biscuit for the 3.30 at Kempton!!

 

[bhafc99]

Stop panicking you bunch of southern softies.

 

[Peteinblack]

Down here, it's this sort of setup, with low pressure trying to make in-roads from the south that delivers all of our memorable snow events.

The classic winters of the 80s were either all, or party like this.

Papa

Yes, I recall that January 1982 and early 1987 (or 1988) were two good examples. In the latter case, I recall that in the midst of the bitterly cold weather, the daytime maximum temperature in Brighton only reached
minus 8 C

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Stop panicking you bunch of southern softies.

Do you see anyone panicking? We're excited... we don't get as much snow as you do further north. We missed out on the cold snowy spell you've had of late.. so don't deny us a little chance of snow next week.

 

[bhafc99]

Stop panicking you bunch of southern softies.

Do you see anyone panicking?

As snow begins to fall across Sussex, signs are erected instructing soft southern men to hold onto both their manbag and a passing child in order to cope.

 

[Nottseagull]

As snow begins to fall across Sussex, signs are erected instructing soft southern men to hold onto both their manbag and a passing child in order to cope.

I thought that sign meant Beware of paedos.

I know it's ten days away Papa, but what are the prospects for Hereford?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I thought that sign meant Beware of paedos.

I know it's ten days away Papa, but what are the prospects for Hereford?

Notts,

The start of the cold weather is currently forecast at 5 days time (Sunday into Monday). At this range it's hard to forecast - Hereford is far enough West to risk missing out on snow from an Easterly, so for snow that much farther West and North we would need a good pressure gradient, and therefore strong Easterly wind, plus the High pressure would need to be centred far enough North to not kill off any potential precipitation.

As per the charts I posted earlier (and nothing else) you would have a chance of snow at some point over the Monday - Wednesday period.

Papa

 

[Papa Lazarou]

For example - this is the latest precipitation forecast for the 6am - noon period on Monday...

I wouldn't trust it though.

 

[Don Quixote]

Well i'm off to Russia in 2 weeks with lots of snow so f*** you all!

 

[Man of Harveys]

For example - this is the latest precipitation forecast for the 6am - noon period on Monday...

I wouldn't trust it though.

Nor would I - will it really rain bikini bottoms over Cherbourg?

 

[Marc]

Great work Papa, abit like you I like to keep my nose on the weather as it governs what I do at work. I first heard about this possibility of snow the other day and now I think I'll go and wax my snowboard!

 

[scarby]

i've just started an extension to the side of the house, which the brickwork will be done by the end of the week. next week i have to take my whole roof off and fit new trusses!!!!!!!! f***