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[Politics] Brexit

If there was a second Brexit referendum how would you vote?


  • Total voters
    1,097










studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
30,070
On the Border
Speaking in Warsaw today at the NATO summit, President Obama said what everyone in the establishment knows but, mostly, won't yet admit.

"Everybody has an interest in minimising any disruptions as the UK and the EU forge a new relationship," he said. There will be an, "orderly transition".

Of course there will, and it was always going to be so. All that needs to happen -- and it will happen soon enough -- is for everyone to see through the continued scaremongering of the Remain camp.

It is a sad statement about their pettiness of mind, but the establishment -- and this includes the Bank of England, the Treasury, the leading financial media such as The Financial Times etc -- feels so humiliated that it is desperately trying to make economic instability a self-fulfilling prophesy.

They have a certain power to do that, which is why consumer confidence and the value of the pound were bound to suffer a temporary decline.

But it won't last. Markets and the public will soon revert to focusing on the fundamentals.

Indeed, it is amazing how little disruption there has been. The FTSE100 has massively outperformed the DAX and the CAC 40. The wider FTSE250 has performed at more or less the same rate as those two leading Eurozone indices. This is exactly the opposite of what Project Fear predicted.

As for the currency markets -- easily spooked at the best of times -- it's true that the pound has fallen sharply against the dollar. But (quite apart from the obvious boost to exporters) this is mainly a flight to safety. The euro is down against the dollar too.

As for the pound versus the euro, yes it has lost value. But only to levels seen 3 years ago, long before anyone was even talking about a potential Brexit.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6364/obama_slaps_remain_says_brexit_will_be_orderly

I see your copy and paste skills didn't extend to the whole article, well done.
 








Scampi

One of the Three
Jun 10, 2009
1,531
Denton
Just come back from the states where the general consensus seems to be why the **** would you vote against your own interests in this way.
 








nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,198
Gods country fortnightly
Speaking in Warsaw today at the NATO summit, President Obama said what everyone in the establishment knows but, mostly, won't yet admit.

"Everybody has an interest in minimising any disruptions as the UK and the EU forge a new relationship," he said. There will be an, "orderly transition".

Of course there will, and it was always going to be so. All that needs to happen -- and it will happen soon enough -- is for everyone to see through the continued scaremongering of the Remain camp.

It is a sad statement about their pettiness of mind, but the establishment -- and this includes the Bank of England, the Treasury, the leading financial media such as The Financial Times etc -- feels so humiliated that it is desperately trying to make economic instability a self-fulfilling prophesy.

They have a certain power to do that, which is why consumer confidence and the value of the pound were bound to suffer a temporary decline.

But it won't last. Markets and the public will soon revert to focusing on the fundamentals.

Indeed, it is amazing how little disruption there has been. The FTSE100 has massively outperformed the DAX and the CAC 40. The wider FTSE250 has performed at more or less the same rate as those two leading Eurozone indices. This is exactly the opposite of what Project Fear predicted.

As for the currency markets -- easily spooked at the best of times -- it's true that the pound has fallen sharply against the dollar. But (quite apart from the obvious boost to exporters) this is mainly a flight to safety. The euro is down against the dollar too.

As for the pound versus the euro, yes it has lost value. But only to levels seen 3 years ago, long before anyone was even talking about a potential Brexit.

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/6364/obama_slaps_remain_says_brexit_will_be_orderly

Need to take the Chatham House stuff with a pinch of salt

No mention of the UK credit downgrade, pretty important when we pay 43B quid a year servicing our debt, or GBP / USD rate that has only ever been lower it has now for a brief period in the mid 80's when the USD massively appreciated.

One thing for certain, if I was a first time buyer I wouldn't be rushing out to buy a house right now. Perhaps an opportunity in a year or two
 










JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
Need to take the Chatham House stuff with a pinch of salt

No mention of the UK credit downgrade, pretty important when we pay 43B quid a year servicing our debt, or GBP / USD rate that has only ever been lower it has now for a brief period in the mid 80's when the USD massively appreciated.

One thing for certain, if I was a first time buyer I wouldn't be rushing out to buy a house right now. Perhaps an opportunity in a year or two

Re the credit downgrade ...

Other things being equal, a downgrade can mean higher borrowing costs. But this time other things are not equal at all.
Since the event which led to the downgrade - the referendum - those costs have gone down.

The risk associated with UK government debt or bonds might in some sense be a little higher than before, but they are still seen as a safe investment compared with other assets.

In a situation where investors have become more reluctant to hold risky assets they buy safer ones including government bonds and that tends to lower the interest rate the government has to pay when it next goes to the market to borrow.

And then there is the increased chance that the Bank of England will reduce its own interest rates because of concerns about the economic impact of Brexit. That tends to push government borrowing costs in the same direction.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934
 




GT49er

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 1, 2009
48,537
Gloucester
Just come back from the states where the general consensus seems to be why the **** would you vote against your own interests in this way.

Always good to get advice from the nation that consistently supports the right of psychopaths with bad karma to walk around with assault weapons.
 


Soulman

New member
Oct 22, 2012
10,966
Sompting
Struggling to see anything Obama said in that article. Is it the right one?
Maybe ive misunderstood. What point are you trying to make?

Oh dear. Ok, i put up a blog, Smeg stated "This is a right wing blog, of course it will say that.".......i responded "Really and the left wing blogs will.....", meaning Left wing blogs will give a left wing opinion and could easily have the ""This is a left wing blog, of course it will say that.".
You butted in with "Got some examples? "
So i put up a link to 75 Left wing blogs.............Capiche?
 


studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
30,070
On the Border
Sorry, i did not realise that you MUST put up the whole article. I thought seeing as I was posting that I could post what I wanted.

As you have done previously and left off details that did not support your view but no worries we are where we are and everyone's confident.
 


daveinprague

New member
Oct 1, 2009
12,572
Prague, Czech Republic
Oh dear. Ok, i put up a blog, Smeg stated "This is a right wing blog, of course it will say that.".......i responded "Really and the left wing blogs will.....", meaning Left wing blogs will give a left wing opinion and could easily have the ""This is a left wing blog, of course it will say that.".
You butted in with "Got some examples? "
So i put up a link to 75 Left wing blogs.............Capiche?

Now you have explained in English. Yes..

'Really and the left wing blogs will....................'

didnt make much sense really.

Sorry for 'buttting in' on a forum lol
 




studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
30,070
On the Border
Re the credit downgrade ...

Other things being equal, a downgrade can mean higher borrowing costs. But this time other things are not equal at all.
Since the event which led to the downgrade - the referendum - those costs have gone down.

The risk associated with UK government debt or bonds might in some sense be a little higher than before, but they are still seen as a safe investment compared with other assets.

In a situation where investors have become more reluctant to hold risky assets they buy safer ones including government bonds and that tends to lower the interest rate the government has to pay when it next goes to the market to borrow.

And then there is the increased chance that the Bank of England will reduce its own interest rates because of concerns about the economic impact of Brexit. That tends to push government borrowing costs in the same direction.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934

Ah I see you are following the Soulman copy and paste tactic. The Fitch outlook further diwn the article makes interesting reading but that of course isn't allowed as its too negative and not being positive enough for your views.
 


ManOfSussex

We wunt be druv
Apr 11, 2016
15,053
Rape of Hastings, Sussex
Ah I see you are following the Soulman copy and paste tactic. The Fitch outlook further diwn the article makes interesting reading but that of course isn't allowed as its too negative and not being positive enough for your views.

Rival agency Fitch lowered its rating from AA+ to AA, forecasting an "abrupt slowdown" in growth in the short-term

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36644934

What do Fitch know anyway......................
 


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