[Politics] Brexit

[Steve in Japan]

The currency has not collapsed. The exchange rate is very similar to that in 2013. Shall we blame the EU and euro for 2013 as we were enthusiastic members back then?

I think you make a good point. There is a tendency to blame every negative effect on Brexit, as if all were sweetness before the vote, and all is crap afterwards. It's not correct but it's going to happen.

Some prime examples. The IFS study reported as fact the fall in real wages post 2008-2013, but that was largely ignored and instead people focused on the difference between their 2021 forecast pre and post Brexit. Greece is still in tatters and has been since 2008. The Italian banking system remains on life support and could expire at any moment. RBS is still in the sh*t and has been since 2008.

But nope, all was going fine before the referendum. Honest.

 

[studio150]

Have to say this caught my eye
Are you sure there have only been 93 acts of parliament in the last 23 years?

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga

 

[Baldseagull]

Questionnaire: the question on the ballot was Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union.....the majority voted to leave

some Bloke : i know ..We should leave The European Union its only fair....they won........ but we should remain as members of the single market, be governed by the ECJ that regulates the single market and therefore be subject to its laws that make it supreme over westminster legislation, we will have to keep free movement of course.....that goes without saying.

Questionnaire:That sounds like staying in the EU

some Bloke : Yeah it is

Questionnaire: So its not leaving after all

some Bloke : yes its not leaving, but we will call it soft leaving or soft brexit......no one will notice.....even if they do notice we have loads of crap up our sleeve we havnt pulled out yet to try and overturn the vote.....we will just blame the delays on democracy.

Questionnaire: Do you have any democratic morals?

some Bloke: You are funny.....of course not.......i support The EU......we hate referendums by idiot civilians......if they get it wrong we purge the story so they have to do it again until they get it right......its not as if you didnt know this....we have form

You really should not refer to Dan Hannan as some bloke, he was a very prominent leave campaigner.

 

[pastafarian]

I will be happy to apologise if you can point me to where I have claimed that no one on remain side knew what they were voting for, but I don't think I have ever made that claim. Leave campaigning included economic benefits of having a Norway type arrangement and getting control of immigration. I think most of us agree those two things are incompatible, but which one should be dropped. I know you think this is a question only for Leave voters to answer, but it really isn't.

you have just answered your own question.
according to you only remain voters knew what they were voting for

 

[pastafarian]

You really should not refer to Dan Hannan as some bloke, he was a very prominent leave campaigner.

he is indeed a leave camapigner
and wants us out as full members of the single market, which would then permit us to trade and set up free trade agreements with other countries
he wants us free from the ECJ so we can make, repeal and amend our own laws and return sovereignty to westminster

 

[WonderingSoton]

The EU has changed vastly in the last 20-25 years.
Did remain voters know what remaining in the EU would look like in 20 years? Any better than brexit voters knew what exiting would look like in 20 years?

 

[Baldseagull]

you have just answered your own question.
according to you only remain voters knew what they were voting for

Is English a second language for you? Do you understand the meanings of " for" and "against"? Can anyone else on here translate what Pastafarian is trying to say to me over the last couple of exchanges?

 

[pastafarian]

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga

thanks for that
so there have been many more than just 93 acts of parliament in the last 23 years......benefit of the doubt perhaps he had a typo

 

[synavm]

The veto is meaningless whilst our politicians are spineless like Thatcher at Maastricht. It's the slow slow ebbing effect.

As for law, that has been found to be highly subjective as the percentage alters dependent upon whichever vested party presents its figures.

HoC Library cited by both Andrea Leadsom and Nick Clegg. 13% if you include statutory instruments (things like working time directive were passed as statuotory instruments), around 70% if you count regulation (against vast majority doesn't affect us and a lot of it is really frivellous for example 'the classification of padded waistcoats in the Combined Nomenclature') and SIs.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga

Apologies it was 18 of 945. Not sure where I got the 3 in 93 thing (maybe it was last year?). For what it's worth, I think 18 in 945 is too high.

The currency has not collapsed. The exchange rate is very similar to that in 2013. Shall we blame the EU and euro for 2013 as we were enthusiastic members back then?

Currency fell 10% overnight on the 23rd, lowest in 31 years against the dollar, lowest ever against the Euro, raised slightly following the court case the other week. That's a collapse directly attributed to the Brexit vote.

 

[pastafarian]

Is English a second language for you? Do you understand the meanings of " for" and "against"? Can anyone else on here translate what Pastafarian is trying to say to me over the last couple of exchanges?

lets make it simple then 4 questions, simple yes or no

i can answer yes to for 4/4......whats your score?

did remain voters know what they were voting for?
did remain voters know what the official vote remain group were promoting and protesting against?

did leave voter know what they were voting for?
did leave voters know what the official vote Leave group were promoting and protesting against?

 

[Baldseagull]

The EU has changed vastly in the last 20-25 years.
Did remain voters know what remaining in the EU would look like in 20 years? Any better than brexit voters knew what exiting would look like in 20 years?

We get to influence things as we go, except that we won't get to influence the direction of the EU quite so much from the sidelines. You can argue that we get to influence Britain more, or the EU gets to influence us less. How would that have looked over the last 20 years?
For all the moaning about EU laws, which ones are the ones that bug you?
Is there a reason that leave campaign did not highlight a large amount of EU legislation we all hate, and rather just focus on the large amount.
Is there a reason they didn't highlight which were the ones that UK government was opposed to, or even just some of the stuff UKIP voted against that came our way anyway?

 

[Baldseagull]

lets make it simple then 4 questions, simple yes or no

i can answer yes to for 4/4......whats your score?

did remain voters know what they were voting for?
did remain voters know what the official vote remain group were promoting and protesting against?

did leave voter know what they were voting for?
did leave voters know what the official vote Leave group were promoting and protesting against?

2/2, which I am sure you knew. So I don't understand why you would attribute to me that I think no one knew what they were voting for in an earlier post, and then only remain in another?
It really is a lot easier if you make an error, to admit it and move on.
As I said if it is me that has claimed something different in a previous post, show it to me and I will either clear up my sloppy post and apologise for wasting your time, or just apologise for my error.

 

[pastafarian]

2/2, which I am sure you knew. So I don't understand why you would attribute to me that I think no one knew what they were voting for in an earlier post, and then only remain in another?

how did you get 2/2 with 4 questions
when i just said i was 4/4
are you that desperate to ignore answering

lets try again and make it easier for you

1/ did remain voters know what they were voting for?
2/ did remain voters know what the official vote remain group were promoting and protesting against?

3/ did leave voter know what they were voting for?
4/ did leave voters know what the official vote Leave group were promoting and protesting against?

 

[Baldseagull]

I think you make a good point. There is a tendency to blame every negative effect on Brexit, as if all were sweetness before the vote, and all is crap afterwards. It's not correct but it's going to happen.

Some prime examples. The IFS study reported as fact the fall in real wages post 2008-2013, but that was largely ignored and instead people focused on the difference between their 2021 forecast pre and post Brexit. Greece is still in tatters and has been since 2008. The Italian banking system remains on life support and could expire at any moment. RBS is still in the sh*t and has been since 2008.

But nope, all was going fine before the referendum. Honest.

It is true to say we have been in difficulty since 2008, but in a world where we are trying to work out what Brexit means in 2016, what happened between 2008 and 2013 is not particularly relevant is it?
Unless you want to lay the whole banking crash at the door of the EU. They have to shoulder some responsibility for dropping the standards required to allow Greece and others to join the Euro, but it was a gamble that had every chance of paying off if it had not been for the crunch.

 

[Baldseagull]

how did you get 2/2 with 4 questions
when i just said i was 4/4
are you that desperate to ignore answering

lets try again and make it easier for you

1/ did remain voters know what they were voting for?
2/ did remain voters know what the official vote remain group were promoting and protesting against?

3/ did leave voter know what they were voting for?
4/ did leave voters know what the official vote Leave group were promoting and protesting against?

I apologise, 2/4. Now go find the post where I claimed no one knew what they were voting for and I will give you another apology.

 

[pastafarian]

For all the moaning about EU laws, which ones are the ones that bug you?
Is there a reason that leave campaign did not highlight a large amount of EU legislation we all hate, and rather just focus on the large amount.
Is there a reason they didn't highlight which were the ones that UK government was opposed to, or even just some of the stuff UKIP voted against that came our way anyway?

i just knew you were one of these " trapists"
There is a silly radio bloke on LBC whose whole act is based on " go on then how are you personally affected by an EU law.....which law is it?

When did it start that you had to personally affected by legislation to give a toss or be able to have an opinion?
when did the media make this a thing?

why cant you you be able bodied and join protests against disabled legislation......why do you have to be personally affected and be disabled to speak out

why cant you be a train driver and join protests against junior doctor legislation......why do you have to be personally affected and be a junior doctor to speak out

what a soulless non caring society this mad idea promotes.......it really screams of frick everyone else just think of yourself...........perhaps thats why your side lost, empathy with others is frowned on...........that with being obsessed with the self and monetary gain rather than thinking about others.....

 

[pastafarian]

I apologise, 2/4. Now go find the post where I claimed no one knew what they were voting for and I will give you another apology.

which 2?
1 and 3?
1 and 2?

 

[Baldseagull]

i just knew you were one of these " trapists"
There is a silly radio bloke on LBC whose whole act is based on " go on then how are you personally affected by an EU law.....which law is it?

When did it start that you had to personally affected by legislation to give a toss or be able to have an opinion?
when did the media make this a thing?

why cant you you be able bodied and join protests against disabled legislation......why do you have to be personally affected and be disabled to speak out

why cant you be a train driver and join protests against junior doctor legislation......why do you have to be personally affected and be a junior doctor to speak out

what a soulless non caring society this mad idea promotes.......it really screams of frick everyone else just think of yourself...........perhaps thats why your side lost, empathy with others is frowned on...........that with being obsessed with the self and monetary gain rather than thinking about others.....

I didn't say you had to be personally affected. Just which ones bug you. So get off your high horse, you really have no reason to be talking about thinking of the wider population after voting in a way that suggests you think Britons are US and the rest of the EU is THEM.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I don't think the Remain side should or will dictate the terms of Brexit. The majority of Parliament will either be whipped or at least understand the need to respond to the result of the referendum. What should and will happen is a full Parliamentary debate taking into account the concerns of both pro-leave and pro-remain members. Amends can then be made to the bill.

On revealing our hand (which to be honest, I'm not completely sure we have a particularly strong hand anyway), the Government should go to the EU, begin negotiations and present it to Parliament to be scrutinised (by both sides). Anything else is totally unconstitutional and really gives carte blanche for and creates a precedent where the Government can operate as a dictatorship- which is ironic given the reason we're in this position is partly down to a perception that the EU is less democratic than our system and overrules our democracy. On a second referendum, it's not something I'm necessarily for (need to see what is negotiated), but I don't think Tim Farron's proposal is totally unreasonable either given once terms are clear, we can form our decision based on facts rather than rhetoric (which both sides are guilty of). Of course it'll be spun as 'keep holding referendums til the elite get what they want', but that's really not the case- people should be making an informed decision on something as big as Brexit. In July, frankly, nobody - particularly the leave side- really knew what they were voting for, we already have a better idea.

On your final point, nobody is saying majority should be ignored - at all. The reason I raised the 650 MPs analogy is that many vocal leave supporters are saying the Remain side should just shut up and accept the majority decision. Parliamentary democracy doesn't work that way, because there are always dissenting voices that need to be heard.

Agree with your first two sentences not so sure about the amendments, though. Firstly (assuming the appeal fails) the Government will probably (if they have any sense) table a very specific 'Triggering of article 50' piece of legislation complying with the wishes of the majority who voted in the referendum. The terms of our negotiation position is a seperate matter and should not be used to thwart or delay triggering our exit which will still take at least 28 months which gives parliament ample oppurtunity to debate and scrutinise the process.

Of course fully revealing our hand pre negotiations would not be in our national interest for obvious reasons. The PM has already stated the broad outlines of the UK position, gaining maximum amount of access to the single market and tariif free trade but not at any cost. The main concerns of the majority take precedence .. Sovereignty, Taking Back Control, Immigration. Formulating and agreeing a settled negotiating position by parliament where a vast majority voted Remain and numerous other political vested interests (SNP) are involved would be in who's best interest ... and take how long exactly? For some reason I doubt remainers would be suggesting this path if a clear majority were Hard Brexit MP's. Speaking of democratic comparisons how many EU member governments parliaments are insisting their pre negotiating position is set out and passed by a vote before agreeing to start the process? Will the European Parliament be getting a vote to endorse the EU initial negtoiting position?

The Second referendum idea is a shameless attempt to have another go at reversving the decision before it is implmented, extremely dangerous for our democracy. Surprised you would even consider this as an option. At least some Lib Dems understand this.

 

[Steve in Japan]

It is true to say we have been in difficulty since 2008, but in a world where we are trying to work out what Brexit means in 2016, what happened between 2008 and 2013 is not particularly relevant is it?
Unless you want to lay the whole banking crash at the door of the EU. They have to shoulder some responsibility for dropping the standards required to allow Greece and others to join the Euro, but it was a gamble that had every chance of paying off if it had not been for the crunch.

My point is simply we cannot pretend all was right with the economy pre Brexit, not blame it for any and every negative news that comes.

Re the IFS historic data, yes it's very relevant because it makes my point above. In summary the IFS said we're really in trouble, now. And then forecast we might be marginally less in trouble in 2021 if we hadn't chosen Brexit. But we're not sure. Because forecasting is tricky.

Contrast that with the press coverage. They had the IFS bloke on the Today program the day after the report broke, and even he was at pains to stress what we actually do know for certain....yup, the historic data.