Betting help please.................£10k on the line!

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

I would be overly boring here and say DONT place a cover bet. You never know, SOMEONE outside your bet+ cover bet options may score FIVE and then you are SCREWED.

If you don't win your bet, you haven't lost 10k. You've lost your original stake which clearly you felt you could afford to lose when you placed the bet.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

thanks for your advice. Perhaps I should back grabban and midson to score. Last w/e grabban was unwell and did not play and midson was on the bench. Perhaps I should just let it ride? I could very easily end up losing as it is too close to call. As you say, it is a minefield.

Probably the best idea as you could collect twice. If you back them to score anytime you should also include Akinfenwa and there is an argument for including Richards and Harold as well - Akinfenwa is 15/8 on Bet 365 and bet max was 2.5K so no problem getting on. If they don't play, you should get your money back (depending on the bookie but most do)

Whatever you do carries some risk but 10K is too much to let ride in my opinion. These chances don't come around too often if you have enough liquidity.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Let it ride and and believe in Lady Luck.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Back the other possible contenders as anytime goalscorers. Perfect scenario is that they all score, but McLeod scores more, and you collect on all bets.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

At the end of last season, my younger brother, who posts occasionally on here, had a similar, scenario, but with bigger stakes. He needed Tevez to win, so ended up staking £10k on Berbatov as an anytime scorer on the last day. (He didn't score).

 

[sirtonybloomthankyou]

I dont think you should be backing any of the others at all, there are too many in with a shout of winning and you could end up doing plenty of money in saver bets, if one of the players on 15/16/17 scores three or so and you dont back him then you do a lot more.
Why not see if anyone wants to back him with you? offer a price to people ie 4/1 to be top scorer you will have to lay over the odds to get people interested which is your only problem but you might get some takers.
How much of your 10k are you willing to lose? I

 

[The screamer]

Go break the other 2 players legs?

You know the rules!

 

[Gazwag]

I assume this must have been an accumulator, out of interest what were the others which have already come in.

Best of luck btw.

 

[piersa]

At the end of last season, my younger brother, who posts occasionally on here, had a similar, scenario, but with bigger stakes. He needed Tevez to win, so ended up staking £10k on Berbatov as an anytime scorer on the last day. (He didn't score).

I seem to remember some posting on that bet last year. He won though didnt he?

 

[piersa]

I assume this must have been an accumulator, out of interest what were the others which have already come in.

Best of luck btw.

Had Lambert 20/1 rhodes 9/1 mcleod 16/1 rvp 9/1 (already hedged)

 

[SK1NT]

How much did you initially lay out on the bet? you're not actually losing 10k... unless this is what you laid out...

Maybe a grand each on the other two scorers depending on the teams they are playing (if the other two top goalscorers contenders are playing tough opposition dont back em... if it is an easy game back that striker) and as someone mentioned back barnet not to score which will be about 7/1...

 

[keithbeaky]

No good backing someone else as too many in with a chance, lay it off on Betfair if you have the money or maybe a MASSIVE bet on Barnet not to score on Saturday ?

Barnet score and someone else wins top goalscorer. So he does his brains and doesn't win 10k

 

[hans kraay fan club]

I seem to remember some posting on that bet last year. He won though didnt he?

The original 12-fold accumulator stood to return about $50k. With a week to go, he was waiting on the last 2 events: Barcelona to win the CL (they were already through to the final), and Tevez to be PL top scorer (he was level on 20 with Berbatov). Like you, he was too close to a big win, to risk walking away with nothing, so he put £10k on Berbatov to score anytime, and I think £5k on Man United to win the CL. He went into those final games guaranteed a minimum profit (on a $10 stake) of about £15k, which is what he won.

 

[piersa]

The original 12-fold accumulator stood to return about $50k. With a week to go, he was waiting on the last 2 events: Barcelona to win the CL (they were already through to the final), and Tevez to be PL top scorer (he was level on 20 with Berbatov). Like you, he was too close to a big win, to risk walking away with nothing, so he put £10k on Berbatov to score anytime, and I think £5k on Man United to win the CL. He went into those final games guaranteed a minimum profit (on a $10 stake) of about £15k, which is what he won.

brilliant, I hope he has not spunked it all.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

brilliant, I hope he has not spunked it all.

Not at all.

He used a couple of thousand to fly himself and young family back over to Brighton, for us to meet his baby daughter for the first time.

 

[keithbeaky]

Ok first off DONT bet on the other players to score . DONT bet on Barnet not to score, this is terrible advice and could cost you more money. The only real way out of this is to lay 9/4, 3.25 on Betfair. And if Im honest you will find this difficult as the liquidity on the market is tiny. You will probably have to lay 3/1, possibly even bigger.

So at the moment you stand to win 10k. Lets say you have to lay 3/1.

You lay £1500 at 4.0 on Betfair to lose £4500

So if McLeod is top scorer in Div2 you win 10k MINUS £4500=£5500 win
If Mcleod ties as top goalscorer then there are MANY different outcomes to both your acc and the lay on Betfair.
If Mcleod isn't top scorer then you win £1500, minus 5% comm, meaning you win £1425

The trouble you have is that this is really NOT straight forward. You could have 1,2,3,4,5 winners meaning that you get half stake for two way tie, third of your stake for three way tie and so on.

You could back the other runners but it could get messy and end in disaster. Is he going to play?

 

[keithbeaky]

tried to phone them, they were uninterested.

They will offer you an insulting trade anyway, dont do this.

 

[piersa]

Ok first off DONT bet on the other players to score . DONT bet on Barnet not to score, this is terrible advice and could cost you more money. The only real way out of this is to lay 9/4, 3.25 on Betfair. And if Im honest you will find this difficult as the liquidity on the market is tiny. You will probably have to lay 3/1, possibly even bigger.

So at the moment you stand to win 10k. Lets say you have to lay 3/1.

You lay £1500 at 4.0 on Betfair to lose £4500

So if McLeod is top scorer in Div2 you win 10k MINUS £4500=£5500 win
If Mcleod ties as top goalscorer then there are MANY different outcomes to both your acc and the lay on Betfair.
If Mcleod isn't top scorer then you win £1500, minus 5% comm, meaning you win £1425

The trouble you have is that this is really NOT straight forward. You could have 1,2,3,4,5 winners meaning that you get half stake for two way tie, third of your stake for three way tie and so on.

You could back the other runners but it could get messy and end in disaster. Is he going to play?

sound reasonable, thanks for the answer. Is he going to play? I do not know but he always played when fit this season. I am tempted to leave it as grabban and midson did not start las t weekend. Perhaps because of transfer speculation and the fact that their teams are safe, they are giving others a chance?

 

[piersa]

Not at all.

He used a couple of thousand to fly himself and young family back over to Brighton, for us to meet his baby daughter for the first time.

brilliant. My son will get A season ticket and a cabin bed. Daughter, something nice she wants. The wife.............flowers?

 

[keithbeaky]

For now I would put up a lay on Betfair at 3.1 for say £500 and see if overnight there are any takers. I think its unlikely you can test the water.

Do you know how to use Betfair? You will be risking £1050, BUT obviously that would come out of your £10k return.


DONT back teams to or not to score. You will probably end up losing twice. Barnet score but its NOT McLeod and you will lose on BOTH bets.